Queries on BUY IN/ SELL OUT targets of your stocks

[ravi t]

Mphasis

Hi Ravi...
entered MPHASISBFL after your call, but recently its has taken a big beating....i read this today...

"Mphasis BFL lost 3.5% in opening trade to Rs 242 after private equity firmBarings Private Equity said it has given up a plan to sell its 35.6% stakein the company.28,521 shares changed hands in the counter on BSE by the first few minutesof trade.Mphasis BFL stock lost ground since mid-July 2005. From a recent high of Rs285.10 on 19 July 2005, the stock had slipped to Rs 251 by 24 August 2005 onthe eve of the announcement.Baring decision not to divest the stake was because it was not satisfiedwith the bids received. It may be recalled that Barings had put on the blockits 35.6% stake in Mphasis in May 2005. Unconfirmed reports had it thatHinduja TMT had bid aggressively valuing the firm at Rs 300 per share butBarings decided not to accept the Hinduja bid as the current management ofMphasis was against it.The cancellation of stake sale in Mpahsis will put pressure on Barings asthe fund which holds the Mphasis stake has already expired and it is on aone-year extension which ends in December 2005"

does this mean its gone for good???....i've already lost bout 10% on this deal(bought@268) ....should i hold on or let it go....

Regards,

Dheeraj M

Dear Dheeraj
its realy unfrotunate that you are fixed in such a bad situation. I can understand all the pain it gives when one gets in such a situation.
it also gives me chills because you have entered on my suggestions so in a way you might be holding me kind of responsible for this.But dheeraj every person entering in this line of stock investment should always keep in mind the risk involved. Each one of us should always be prepaired that if ones money can double it has all the chances to be reduced to half or even less.But again both these extremes are very rare. It's very rare that money doubles or in the worst halves in short intervals. that left us in B/w these two extrems with an arbitrary zero line. all of us here evaluating various stocks try to cut out the risk and keep ourselves and others in the forum, above the Zero line.And that we are trying with our utmost honesty and sincerity........
last time when i looked at Mphasis charts, it appeared to me that everything is in place for giving the stock all the needed push. Bharti news, good results good EPS everything seems to be in place. You entered after that post. But now suddenly this Baring news created panic. Even now if i look at the charts both in daily and weekly there seems to be no specific reason why the stock has fallen on technical grounds.Moreover there is a book closure coming soon in septembr end. so I don't understand how much impact this Baring news has on the script. On weekly charts the the decline has not that much volume support as compared to when it touched 281, two weeks ago.to me it appears that the panic is in retailers group and not in the others(FIIS, Mutul funds etc.) The biggest irony is that all the indicators are now in buy region.. it is quite possible that the stock might fall a little more before consolidating..
to me you have two options. Either book loss here exit and enter some time laterwhen the stock has consolidated and show some reall upward movment. in the mean time you can put your money somwhere else. the other option is avg here by buying some more..
Which ever option you choose depends on your risk taking appetite and patience.But above all its your money and you are it's best gurdian and you have to take decisions in your own interes.....
Amit, saint, joy,supratik i will love to hear your views on this
regards
RAVI T

 

[ravi t]

Maars sof, Alka india, Baffin are all trading good and past there first trading targets..
syschem india is at a littel bit resistance but holding good...
Varun shipping past its all time highs and might be leading to its second target of 70/72.
Next two hot targets are Ajanta Soya(13.30) and Zenith Computers(32.00).lets wish these two also do good
regards
RAVI T

 

[Ashwani Bhatia]

Dear Ravi

Is it safe to enter in Baffin or wait for few sessions. Please throw some light on Silktex. I have at 63. Book closure for 15% dividend starts from Sept 10.

Regards
Ashwani

 

[dheerajmehta]

Hi Ravi,
Thanx for the analysis of the situation, and as far as the investment is concerned i don't hold you responsible for my loss at all, the final decision lies with me you had given your analysis with utmost sincerity and such things do happen.....so be it.....
I had opportunities to sell (@275 first ) & then at @256-257 but i decided to hang on....
I jus wanted to know if i do average out my cost by investing more right now will it be throwing good money after bad?....or even if i was to book my loss should i book it right now or has it hit the bottom and will show some upward movement in the next few days....I trust the situation will not have any bearing on your suggestions to me, one cannot expect to make money/make 100% right calls all the time anyway.....

The daily chart gave a sell signal a few days ago....and the the scrip seems to be making lower tops...which is kinda worrying.....regarding the volumes....yesterday's volumes were off the chart!!!!!
I'm realtively new to technical anaylsis....so my interpretations might be flawed...i would be very obliged if you could tell me which indicators have you studied for the scrip so that i may also keep a tab on the same and prevent any further losses...
On the fundamentals side the company does look ok....the BPO business i believe wasn't doing exceptionally well but after the BHATRI project that should also have got a kickstart...
On a separate note i think you are doing a great job....keep up the good work....

Regards,

Dheeraj M

 

[ravi t]

Hi Ravi,
Thanx for the analysis of the situation, and as far as the investment is concerned i don't hold you responsible for my loss at all, the final decision lies with me you had given your analysis with utmost sincerity and such things do happen.....so be it.....
I had opportunities to sell (@275 first ) & then at @256-257 but i decided to hang on....
I jus wanted to know if i do average out my cost by investing more right now will it be throwing good money after bad?....or even if i was to book my loss should i book it right now or has it hit the bottom and will show some upward movement in the next few days....I trust the situation will not have any bearing on your suggestions to me, one cannot expect to make money/make 100% right calls all the time anyway.....

The daily chart gave a sell signal a few days ago....and the the scrip seems to be making lower tops...which is kinda worrying.....regarding the volumes....yesterday's volumes were off the chart!!!!!
I'm realtively new to technical anaylsis....so my interpretations might be flawed...i would be very obliged if you could tell me which indicators have you studied for the scrip so that i may also keep a tab on the same and prevent any further losses...
On the fundamentals side the company does look ok....the BPO business i believe wasn't doing exceptionally well but after the BHATRI project that should also have got a kickstart...
On a separate note i think you are doing a great job....keep up the good work....

Regards,

Dheeraj M

Dear Dheeraj
good to hear from you. and also good to know that you understand all the ground realities.
Mphasis hit 247 today and at present holding above 243.. That's a kind of relief for now. Let me keep a close tab on this counter. How much of Mphasis you are holding??? I suggest that if the holding is not to big, keep a S/L of 225 and if the holding is more than book loss for half of the holding at 232. Use this money to cover losses from other counters. Ajanta soya looks good at the moment but volume build up is still not there... start tracking it and you may soon find a comfortable entry. the target is far high and God Willing, we might come out with good overall profit. Keep me updated on your portfolio....
regards
RAVI T
reg

 

[ravi t]

Dear Ashwani/Jdutt
hold on I will come after mkt hours with my opinion on your queries....
regards
RAVI T

 

[alok]

I would like to know about 'T. SPIRITUAL WORLD'.. This stock is trading at 3.50 at present (8% up from last closing) with 52 week high of ~ 43 Rs...

 

[ravi t]

look out friends Maars Sof is up 10% presently at 6.80 looking very good to shoot to newer hights. Sit tight for the roller coaster....
regards
RAVI T

 

[jaideep]

Yes! Ravi, yes!! Maars a-going Mars way.

 

[ravi t]

Re: Indian Acrylic

Dear Roneeth
indian acrylic posted a excellent results this year. each quarter is improving from the previous one or at least maintaing the profit. the EPS is also around 3.00. thus fundamentally its a sound share. technically also the indicators are in perfect buy mode in daily charts. though weekly charts are not as promising as daily charts but a sell is not indicated at any cost. i have a feeling the crucial point is 14.10 which the stock may test soon probably in next 1 or 2 trading sessions. after that there is a strong possiblity of it bouncing to 18+ something.if unfortunately it dips further than might test 12.50.
my suggestion here is if already invested then sit tight for some real fast action. or if planning to enter then just wait for couple of trading sessions to look out for some clear signal......
One more request to you. in future please write your position(i.e. if entered than at what level or if planning to enter what is the minimum return desired). this will help to calculate targets easier for me!!!!!!! also please do let me know how much this calculation was helpful to you........
regards
RAVI T

hii roneeth
Indian acry now seems tempting to enter around 15.25. seems a target of around 18.5 to 19.00. don't forget to keep a SL of 13.5 here.
regards
RAVI T

Dear Roneeth
you must be watching your Indian Acrylic is now just short of 17.00. volume build up is excellent.let's keep our fingers crossed for our earlier target of 18.5-19.00.
Regards
RAVI T