Random thoughts on technical analysis
- Thread starter orderflow13
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volatility index( vix)
Those rounded in green numbers are highs of volatility index( vix),if we put those rounded numbers in chart,i can imagine it will create a spike...and those two rounded VIX figures are highest ever in 3 months,... VIX represents volatility,volatility in other way is representation of extreme natures and those spikes suggesting highest extremity,as markets fallen on those extreme vix numbers,scary weak hands moved out of market,and whenever this happens,usually market bottomed out ( topped out if market closes higher on volatility spike).
P.S. I saw chart of this data on NSE but they draw chart on closing basis,so that spike got hidden in chart, sometimes smoothing your indicators also become dangerous...
Those rounded in green numbers are highs of volatility index( vix),if we put those rounded numbers in chart,i can imagine it will create a spike...and those two rounded VIX figures are highest ever in 3 months,... VIX represents volatility,volatility in other way is representation of extreme natures and those spikes suggesting highest extremity,as markets fallen on those extreme vix numbers,scary weak hands moved out of market,and whenever this happens,usually market bottomed out ( topped out if market closes higher on volatility spike).
P.S. I saw chart of this data on NSE but they draw chart on closing basis,so that spike got hidden in chart, sometimes smoothing your indicators also become dangerous...
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my one frnd ( who is in us n we were speaking online) telling me here i heard that fiis and hedge funds got wakeup duty calls as unexpected crude oil fall ( they still thinks that if they are on holiday,world will stop speening, but as our very own Michael Douglas might have said " money never sleeps 
" ( MOVIE . WALL STREET )... Well one thoght lingered in my mind what wil i do if i m a hedge fund manager who is now trapped in nifty short (to hedge his longs in equity & pure shorts)? scared em like hell... just a thoght though but i wont surprise if,after opening gap up,market start falling,& then as those guys cover there positions market rise again...
" ( MOVIE . WALL STREET )... Well one thoght lingered in my mind what wil i do if i m a hedge fund manager who is now trapped in nifty short (to hedge his longs in equity & pure shorts)? scared em like hell... just a thoght though but i wont surprise if,after opening gap up,market start falling,& then as those guys cover there positions market rise again...
On the new Reserve Bank of India Governor, Dr Duvvuri Subbarao:
From the people that I have spoken to, haven’t heard too many people cribbing about him; they are saying he is a good guy, good pedigree, good track record, reformer etc. But it’s very important and it’s not just about who has taken up a post because it is the RBI Governor’s post and individual matters in monetary policy. If one looks at the US Fed as well individuals are remembered; Mr Paul Volker (Former Fed Chairman) is remembered as a greatest monetary policy maker or the best Fed Governor ever, Mr Alan Greenspan (Former Fed Chairman) is wildly criticized as the guy who actually stoked all these bubbles and Mr. Ben Bernanke (Chairman of the US Federal Reserve) is now thought of as a guy who has done a good job of amending there, has cleared up the mess. So individuals remain in public memory and there must be something in it. So it’s not the office which is only important, the RBI Governor’s office. Individuals have their own style, their own leanings, their own ways of functioning, and their own takes on the economy and therefore the appointment of the man is quite important particularly for this.
At a time when the market does not have a clear answer on how much more inflation targeting will happen through the monetary policy route because it’s a toss of a coin. As we have been discussing for the last one year Dr. Reddy’s mind is very difficult to fathom so what will the new Governor’s mind be like? Will he be as sharp an inflation targeter? Will he use the monetary policy hammer as Dr. Reddy has been using to cool inflation? What is the brief that he has from the Finance Minister now that he is been ushered into the top seat? Will the Finance Minister lean on him considerably as a new candidate till the elections are out next time round and what is his own take on how to cool this particular breed of inflation?
October policy will be watched closely because it will be his first statement to the market, to the economy and to the industry and it will be watched extremely closely. So one do not know what kind of inflation targeting he will do but it is very significant what he says on 24th October.
The other point is that he is widely regarded as a banking reformer and the one crib that one have with Dr. Reddy is that he pretty much shut the door on banking reforms for right or wrong – I do not know, I am not passing judgement on that but he shut the door on banking reforms or banking M&A till to 2009 and the new Governor comes in at a time when 2009 is approaching. Is he the sort of reformer who will say that “now we need to do a lot of big moves in the banking sector so let the big banks come in, let them swallow up a couple of banks here?” So we would watch with a great interest because that could galvanise the market completely if we do see big ticket banking reforms starting 2009 and that’s something that we will certainly hope from him.
Near-term it will be about his stance on inflation, medium-term it will be about what he does with the banking space but this has the potential, this appointment of changing the landscape of the financial market for sure. ... by udayan.
From the people that I have spoken to, haven’t heard too many people cribbing about him; they are saying he is a good guy, good pedigree, good track record, reformer etc. But it’s very important and it’s not just about who has taken up a post because it is the RBI Governor’s post and individual matters in monetary policy. If one looks at the US Fed as well individuals are remembered; Mr Paul Volker (Former Fed Chairman) is remembered as a greatest monetary policy maker or the best Fed Governor ever, Mr Alan Greenspan (Former Fed Chairman) is wildly criticized as the guy who actually stoked all these bubbles and Mr. Ben Bernanke (Chairman of the US Federal Reserve) is now thought of as a guy who has done a good job of amending there, has cleared up the mess. So individuals remain in public memory and there must be something in it. So it’s not the office which is only important, the RBI Governor’s office. Individuals have their own style, their own leanings, their own ways of functioning, and their own takes on the economy and therefore the appointment of the man is quite important particularly for this.
At a time when the market does not have a clear answer on how much more inflation targeting will happen through the monetary policy route because it’s a toss of a coin. As we have been discussing for the last one year Dr. Reddy’s mind is very difficult to fathom so what will the new Governor’s mind be like? Will he be as sharp an inflation targeter? Will he use the monetary policy hammer as Dr. Reddy has been using to cool inflation? What is the brief that he has from the Finance Minister now that he is been ushered into the top seat? Will the Finance Minister lean on him considerably as a new candidate till the elections are out next time round and what is his own take on how to cool this particular breed of inflation?
October policy will be watched closely because it will be his first statement to the market, to the economy and to the industry and it will be watched extremely closely. So one do not know what kind of inflation targeting he will do but it is very significant what he says on 24th October.
The other point is that he is widely regarded as a banking reformer and the one crib that one have with Dr. Reddy is that he pretty much shut the door on banking reforms for right or wrong – I do not know, I am not passing judgement on that but he shut the door on banking reforms or banking M&A till to 2009 and the new Governor comes in at a time when 2009 is approaching. Is he the sort of reformer who will say that “now we need to do a lot of big moves in the banking sector so let the big banks come in, let them swallow up a couple of banks here?” So we would watch with a great interest because that could galvanise the market completely if we do see big ticket banking reforms starting 2009 and that’s something that we will certainly hope from him.
Near-term it will be about his stance on inflation, medium-term it will be about what he does with the banking space but this has the potential, this appointment of changing the landscape of the financial market for sure. ... by udayan.
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