Random thoughts on technical analysis

[orderflow13]

hi karthik,
first no offence at all mate,i come to know readers flow is getting hindered,
As u said initially thread started good n latter between me n czar, actually czar was the first guy who started to question, analyze and fine printing my discussed ta tools,u can see he was the first who asked about this indicator and that,he was the one who posted his charts and told me his good methods of analysing hourly charts, so on backdrop it seems we only discussing,as others didnt take interest( unfortunately) sometimes we joke her n there but its very rare,afterall discussion forums r meant for healthy discussions and fineprint ur methods, n get to know where we mistaking,
since years i use to draw my charts and save in my laptop,for my records where m mistaking,then i come to know about this thread so thought instead of saving on laptop why not save on open thread and let the world participate,if no one is commenting then whats the difference between saving in my digital diary and posting here ?
But i must agree that while someone start reading the thread get in to the flow and afterwords that flow must have been hindered by discussions and that person might loose the interest, but we discuss live on live charts and we open our pcs in front of world .
p.s. actually i deleted after posting as i felt i making a fuss of issue, but felt i am thread starter so i have the responsibility to clear things out hope i didnt offend u this time ..if any suggestions always let me know u r very senior person here ..n if its out of my scope then i will close the thread, no big deal for me

 

[karthikmarar]

Dear Alex

My intention was to prevent a good thread going astray. Sure, Healthy discussion leads to expansion of knowledge, creation of new ideas, course correction of strategies etc. But with all the one liners and jokes the discussion turned into a chat. Like you said the flow was getting impeded.

Starting and maintaining a thread is not an easy job. Lots of efforts, time and energy go into it. You are putting a lot of effort, spending a lot of time and it would be criminal to let that go waste.

Please do continue your good work.

Regards

 

[orderflow13]

as i posted before,on hourly charts usd is showing best ever adx n now on daily its confirming, indicating big rally in usd, which means stronger currency always hurt crude n other commodities, crude this time definitely broke 106 again

 

[orderflow13]

myths about the indicators
hi friends i am posting few basic things, as i got reply s that lot of things i posted here,they didnt understand,n it will be nice if i post few ground work stuff...so be it ,
there r few myths about using indicators in technical analysis, first is using same indicators and there parameters in the same economical conditions , rsi, in bull market, level 80 is considered bullish, in bearish market rsi 70, considered bearish,m just giving the general direction as subject is very long, n my hands not very strong
also using rsi,macd,adx for end of day nifty, but its some time wise to use diff indicators for intraday nifty,( personally i dont use adx in, intraday nifty as it gave me whipsaws), second thing there is a nature of a particular stock, few stocks are trades in very thin volume,at that time most indicators dont show reliable signals, only just u have to look beyond signals,( yes its sometimes advisable to look beyond usual ta tools), u can check the delivery percentage at end of day ( on nse, bse sites there is a column),u can check if there is any call/put getting active out of sudden,as in indian market on low vol stock call/puts are not active but unusually they get active out of sudden,one example is 1 or 2 years back i dont remember xactly there was a stock g.e.shipping,after demerge from parent company, that stock plummeted to 96 odd levels ( from 250 i guess), in a bull market that was rare to find stock with pe multiple 4, i got interested n brought, it got stable for month on 93 ,95 n then one day stock fall of 93, broke its low and go up to 80, in 2 minutes and recovered again with heavy volatility, and second day 100 call options got active,since that day stock moved up to 450 something ( i squared off at 175 ),I must add,my intention is not to brag my profitable trade as i loose lot of trades also,just trying 2 give live ex.
also few stocks shows abnormal rollover,by figure of rollover u can judge sense of direction.
According to stock u gotta change ur indicators time period,if our bear rally is 6,7 year month then we must give preference to 6 month chart n must give 50,20 day crossover more importance,
my frnd use slow stochestic for ongc,instead of rsi as it gave him whipsaws.
so i gave a general idea, anyone playing with there indicators plz post here so others will be benefited
Cut the long story short. Trading is a art not exact science ( Thats my assumptions by now,still there is lot of debate in my mind, ..n last but not least our very old clich, u cant win each n every trade. we will be happy if our success rate is above 65-70%

p.s. there was confusion on ge priz so search in my old diary, n luckily i found n posted here with marks

 

[columbus]

myths about the indicators
there r few myths about using indicators in technical analysis, first is using same indicators and there parameters in the same economical conditions , rsi, in bull market, level 80 is considered bullish, in bearish market rsi 70, considered bearish,m just giving the general direction as subject is very long, n my hands not very strong
our success rate is above 65-70%

Alex,

To be frank in day -trading I will give 25% importance to RSI and 75% to MACD, because in MACD we have a SIGNAL line which will give tremendous confidence to traders.

 

[orderflow13]

ehh very true, rsi for high risk traders,macd is a confirmation of trend,its good for trade on safer side

 

[orderflow13]

wt indicators u use colombus on intraday basis, n eod ?

 

[columbus]

wt indicators u use colombus on intraday basis, n eod ?

MACD for both.

 

[orderflow13]

Dear Alex

My intention was to prevent a good thread going astray. Sure, Healthy discussion leads to expansion of knowledge, creation of new ideas, course correction of strategies etc. But with all the one liners and jokes the discussion turned into a chat. Like you said the flow was getting impeded.

Starting and maintaining a thread is not an easy job. Lots of efforts, time and energy go into it. You are putting a lot of effort, spending a lot of time and it would be criminal to let that go waste.

Please do continue your good work.

Regards

we invented ***** chat so hope flows wont hinder

 

[orderflow13]

interestingly , today we witnessed building in open interest on 4600 call and 4500 put, ( which i also wrote ),seems like market going to be in range for few days between 4400 to 4600 odd levels,sure this is not exact laxman rekha, as market may move beyond,give and take 30 points, just a zone those data indicates.
combination of adx with writing/buying options seems interesting indicator lets see what happens.....
p.s. in chart read option( not nifty) couldnt digest oi of 60 %