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If today Nifty moves further 2% from here, will it be UP or DOWN?


  • Total voters
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  • Poll closed .

jamit_05

Well-Known Member
Indeed! Very good thread.Pl, keep it up.Can you ellaborate more on finding bottom I mean base price & how to track it?
will answer your question in a practical way. Theory, as I know, does not help.

Since people are interested in knowing the base, next week I will be more elaborate in its description....
 

reachjj

Active Member
As you see, I have gone wrong in getting the precise base, week after week... yet the trades have been successful.

Base is only a guide. Watch for each weeks price corrections. Current weeks base will be 20-30 points lower than last weeks.
thanks, and we should never be buying it on a Friday right as it tend to lose the value because of Saturday and Sunday's inactivity in the market...and you prefer to buy on Monday or Thursday hoping to close everything by Friday....
 
jamit_05, a very good trading technique to make consistent money. Thanks for that...

But can you please explain how to find the base price (low where we should try to buy) for each week. Couldn't really understand that part.

Thanks
Yes Jamit, I agree with reachjj , Please find time to explain how to find the base price and also the things to keep in mind while choosing the best pair like currently the chosen one is 49 PE and 51 CE.

Regards.
 

jamit_05

Well-Known Member
thanks, and we should never be buying it on a Friday right as it tend to lose the value because of Saturday and Sunday's inactivity in the market...and you prefer to buy on Monday or Thursday hoping to close everything by Friday....
Not etched in stone... but yes.

The general idea is to see a correction further below last weeks low. These lows come after a few days of inactivity and finally the buying point comes when a day goes bitterly sideways and all hope is lost.... which when we step in.

I have seen in months of Jan and Feb, that this bitter sideways action lasts for an elongated period 10 to 15 days.... meaning, two fridays go by and prices are in a 150 point range... bad for us. At that time we have to improvise. Hope to see those times too.....

Nothing in the world makes me more happy than acquiring a skill or two.

Have a good day.
 

jamit_05

Well-Known Member
Yes Jamit, I agree with reachjj , Please find time to explain how to find the base price and also the things to keep in mind while choosing the best pair like currently the chosen one is 49 PE and 51 CE.

Regards.
Seekers of a fixed formula will be disappointed.

There are times when we have to improvise.

Like last week, a pair was purchased near 175.... in a days time we saw that the cost is actually much lower since after a 80 point move the higher pair was trading at much lower... so we dumped the older pair for 178 and lopped onto the new and improved one... and made even more money...

If one tries to formulate this business, he will be taking the fun out of it... and profit too...
 

jamit_05

Well-Known Member
For the ones wanting to learn how to reach the base price:

This weeks base is 127-135... we saw it yesterday. Next weeks base would be 20-25 points lower. If market dictates otherwise I will bring it up. Markets are always dynamic... the volatility (mood) changes without prior warning....

For ex. if Merkel approves QE then there will be serious changes.
 
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jamit_05

Well-Known Member
Pls make a note... if today closes above 150, then we will be interested in shorting the pair.... however, it is not advisable to do it today at EOD. Monday morning will print the same cost for a short while (30 mins or so). The issue is that, if any positive news comes from Europe over the weekend, our shorts will be beaten (badly) by a sharp gap.

The devaluation of weekend will reflect after the first sideways action on Monday, before which we will have already shorted....
 

jamit_05

Well-Known Member
time decay...

Time-decay is working at its very best right now... a curious person gets much to learn about the market's behaviour by simple observations.

Every 15 mins is chipping off a point and half... cost down to 124;
Our pair of 49/51 is Rs.10 down.

It is likely that profit from this trade won't be super good. I am content with meager as well, since one trade this week already made me Rs.12 ;
 

jamit_05

Well-Known Member
It turned out to be a good decision to take profit on the last trade... (157-139=18);
Locked in the profit towards the EOD since I did not expect back to back teji.

Then what happened... prices retraced to todays low of 122 without respite.

This brings us to another observation. If cost can come down from 157 to 122 in such a short time... then may be there was a trade opportunity there... more on it later...
 
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