Sensex at 10K : are we ready ?

[bharatk8]

Bharat

With respect, I dont think you can generalise about the end of bull run being marked by a scam.

Do you suggest (as a corollary) that the bull run will continue indefinitely as long as we keep scams away?

No my friend, even in the complete absence of a scam, the market trend will be ripe for reverse when corporate EPS growth will slow down or turn negative ... and IMHO maybe we are in for that situation for 2006. Mind you, not Earnings growth, but EPS growth (surely you know the difference)

So the correction we are seeing right now could well be the onset of a bear trend.

Of course only time (and GOD) can tell whether the currrent correction is
- only a minor correction ( i.e a week or two)
- a secondary correction lasting a mth or more, or ..
OR : the worst case scenario, i.e
- the onset of a bear market

AGILENT

hi agilent,,,eversince sensex went beyond 9600 odd points,all sort of pessimistic views have been expressed in this thread....on 3rd feb.(when sensex was at 9742 pessimism was at its peak),i had expressed my views to pacify persons who feared worst...and on very next day sensex bounced back and within 13 trading days it has touched all time high(well beyond impossible/unsustainable looking target of 10k).need i say more about my opinion??????and since mr.subratabera had rightly highlighted technofunda. view ,just before my post,i had refrained from elaborating ,because i did not want to look mimicking him.....he had done good job of pacifying forum members......hence i had offered only a small point to second his view....allow me to draw ur attention to ASHWANI GUJARAL"S book where he has given examples of international.markets. and pointed relationship between scam and end of bullrun...so blaming me of generalisation is not appropriate.....................................................................................when fobia of bust is at back of ones mind,it takes away thrill of climax.....so take a chillpill....when nifty breaks 25DMA with large volumethen we will review position/persons like subrata will forewarn u......remember in post octo. correction when everybody was talking about end of bull run ,nifty took support at 100DMA and smart recovery has seen nifty touching all time high.....so take opinions of tv experts with pinch of salt......do not get perturbed if they are not unanimus in opinion .....because market rise and fall for its own reasons...it does not behave as per majority view....it is not bloody parliament

 

[bharatk8]

Bear markets generally begin in anticipation decrease in corporate profits, or a correction of overvaluation (i.e., stocks were too expensive and fell to more reasonable levels). Investors who are scared by these lower earnings or lofty valuations sell their stock, causing the price to drop. This causes other investors to worry about losing the money they've invested, so they sell as well; the vicious cycle begins.

Most scams accelerate the bear markets in India.

hi arun , ur theory is correct.....but that phase is yet to come...otherwise nifty would not have made new high....keep ur ears to ground and eyes on bulletin board of traderji .....whenever major correction is round the corner,seniormembers will warn u in advance

 

[bharatk8]

Great stuff,Agilent..........keep em coming!

Saint

hi saint, rally of last 13 trading days has set aside issue of extent of correction..... overlooking decrease in earnings/eps whether real or imagenary.....let us see what is in store for us.

 

[Saint]

hi saint, rally of last 13 trading days has set aside issue of extent of correction..... overlooking decrease in earnings/eps whether real or imagenary.....let us see what is in store for us.

Hi Bharat,

There are times when we are bullish,just gung-ho buy every sweet pattern and rake in profits at will.There are times when the market crashes and sends fear into the market,where we short every ugly pattern and rake in profits.And there are times like these that I would say that we could go either direction from here.........remember,we don't have to be masters of prediction and forecasting to make money.We just have to detect a trend and ride it.

Like you said,.......let's see what's in store.Either way,detect a change or continuation in trend and make your profits.

All the best!
Saint

 

[ragh_ash]

Hi Bharat,

There are times when we are bullish,just gung-ho buy every sweet pattern and rake in profits at will.There are times when the market crashes and sends fear into the market,where we short every ugly pattern and rake in profits.And there are times like these that I would say that we could go either direction from here.........remember,we don't have to be masters of prediction and forecasting to make money.We just have to detect a trend and ride it.

Like you said,.......let's see what's in store.Either way,detect a change or continuation in trend and make your profits.

All the best!
Saint

hi saint,
right on! man, you have hit the nail on the head and squarely at that.
while on short, this forum is "bullish" i.e u see many buy calls(Longs) but not many shorts.
do suggest some shorts, will you,
regards
ragh_ash

 

[Agilent]

If we step back and take an extreme bird's eye view of the situation (or a view from space , if u will ... much like an astonaut) what do we see :

The US markets (Dow) crossed a new high yesterday , the highest level since 9/2001 (am I right? ) See link.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EDJI&t=5y&l=off&z=m&q=l&c=

What's the relevance ?

Well if you agree that stock markets always move in anticipation, the Dow trend augurs well for US economy over the next couple of years.

Doesn't that augur well for India ???

Maybe that's one reason why the India story remains strong, and hence the Sensex continues to rise (at least for now)

Views?
AGILENT
PS Thats what my head tells me (when I try figure out possible reasons for this never ending party ... however my heart tells me otherwise, and thats why I remain scared to buy at these levels ... except in specific scrips where individual stories are great.... shhh... secret)

 

[bharatk8]

Sensex at 10k ... we are ready ???

Dont get emotional folks... keep booking those profits

Those of you who saw all analyst interviews on TV... note how divergent some views were

And in general terms, divergence spells uncertainty.

Cheers

hi, how many analysts predicted octo. correction,magnitude of correction and recovery which followed soon after.?????????......

 

[Agilent]

hi, how many analysts predicted octo. correction,magnitude of correction and recovery which followed soon after.?????????......

Precisely !!

But the fact remains... even if we can forget abt the anaylsts and mentally piurge them from our horizons, we cannot ignore the divergence (and paradoxical situation) surrounding the markets most of these recent days

Look at the sensex breadth ... more declines , less advances ... yet a rising sensex... how long can this continue ..... indefinitely ?

Thanks about it
AGILENT

 

[Agilent]

That should read purge , nor piurge, sorry

 

[bharatk8]

hi agilent,after rise of 5% in feb. some negative signals have been noticed.........RSI which was making lower tops and lower bottoms for some time has failed to close above falling top trend line even when nifty closed at all time high.,and failure swing in RSI on 17/2 is also a cause of concern....so far nifty has ended weak only after 2,/3 days consecutive diversion of ROc....but on friday it closed weak after just 1 day diversion of ROC.....on positive side current rise is gradual,with fair share of corrections,.....pre.-octo. rally was rather sharp,which took RSI in HOB zone,and difference between MA & close went beyond 4%......as rise of nifty was gradual,rise so far looked sound and that was the reason we have not seen repeatation of oct.....NIFTY has taken support at 25DMA so far ,and still it is above 5DMA and 12DMA.but odds have tilted in favour of weakness.picture will be more clear by price volume behavior at these supports.My friend MAGANBHAI JAIN -A SMART TRaDER AND SOUND TECHNICAL ANALYST has predicted a fall in nifty upto 2980 if 3010 level is breached on mon/tue.....I invite other forum members to contribute their views based on technical grounds(NO HEArSAY or unfounded fears or optimism PL>>>PL....)...........after exposure of ENRONe ACCONTInG FRAUD in america,-where accounting norms are very strict law enforcing agencies are strict,and investors are proactive-looking for signals in indian context from eps/p.e.ratio has become of little use in gauging the direction of market..however repo.rate, .. reverse repo rate,call money rate $/RS exchange rate. f&O signals etc are imp.....any body doing it is also invited to give their version ....as we are at very crucial juncture i request/expect response before trading hours on mon.