Sharing my trades with proper trade setups

[STRATEGICINVESTMENTS]

Why you are thinking "NIFTY will soon turn but right now it will touch 6357 in INDEX." ?

Hello DelhiteRocks,

Happy to find someone from Delhi. Please share something more about your trading with us.

Now please come to technicals.

1. I was not expecting NIFTY to even touch 6357 and was expecting it to fall before that on the daily volume basis. If asked I will elaborate it later.

2. Now come to your query. Kindly check the weekly volume on NIFTY SPOT of the week of

A. 18.10.13 = 84.13 Cr, Close - 6189

B. 25.10.13 = 86.79 Cr, Close - 6144.9

C. 01.11.13 = 95.25 Cr, Close - 6307.2, HIGH - 6332.6

D. 29.11.13 = 78.87 Cr, Close - 6176.1

E. 06.12.13 = 83.35 Cr, Close - 6259.9, HIGH - 6300.55

I request you to see the A, B, C, D and E in your charts or chart uploaded by me in today's morning post.

Now E has increasing volume in comparison to D hence upside movement have chances of contnuation but compare D and E'S volume with A, B and C.

D & E has very less volume in comparison to A, B & C. It shows market is rising on decreasing volume hence probability of continuation in upside direction is very less. Hope you got your answer.

Besides this BANKNIFTY, HDFC, ICICIBANK, SBIN, LT (All these stocks have about 40 percent weight age in NIFTY) major stocks are not getting sufficient volume to move upside. (Please check yourself and if wish I am open to discuss about these stocks) Reliance is already not ready to move up from its range. It has more probability than NIFTY to come down. Just two days back bear trap was played in NIFTY and after that no jump in volume.

Thats why I am not expecting market to sustain this upmove.

And because of increasing volume in weekly charts I am expecting it to move some more upside atleast few days to test the all time high or to prick it so that to trap fresh bulls. Before this I was not expecting the price to touch all time high.

Hope I am able to explain my view. I request from you also to write your views with proper reason.

Regards

Strategic Investments

 

[STRATEGICINVESTMENTS]

Any views on TITAN ?

Good for long entry but correct stop loss will be too far for new entry. Hope you have taken entry at right time. I also don't check pattern's and trade occasionally not daily. 26.11.13's is a good support.

Regards

Strategic Investments

 

[sunnyman_46]

Thank you, but it dipped after the morning blast...

 

[STRATEGICINVESTMENTS]

SI
Thanks.
One suggestion- Analysing + trading on 1 min timeframe is very difficult for immature traders.
It's possible to analyse based on 1 min chart.But trades are generally taken on 5/15 min charts.
It will be MUCH useful if you provde inputs on 5 min chart.

Now major dilemma we face when we face gap up/down.
Will you please elaborate wrt 5-6 dec chart.

Hello XUV500,

Are you really an owner of XUV500 or it will be your next vehicle ?

There is nothing wrong in taking position on the basis of 5/15 min chart and side by side watching 1 min chart. 1 min chart will give you information fast. Suppose you have entered short on the basis of 5 min chart and want to know when to get out. 1 min chart will show you in advance that price is getting support, whenever bar gets around 6000 contracts plus close is above middle but in 5 min chart you may get this information only after 2 or 3 bars later. Hope you got it otherwise I will explain it with chart.

BTW there is one chart which I have uploaded today and is fit for this case. Kindly check the middle chart which I have uploaded in the post no 115. Dated 04.12.13. Here if one was following 1 min chart then he would know that price was going to reverse at 2.09 pm and Nifty's close price of that bar was 6210. But 5 min bar was 1 min away from completing. IE 5 min bar was made at 2.10 pm and at that time the close was 6215 @2.10pm. Hence you would have benefited / get the edge by looking at 1 minute bar. Hope it is clear now.

So you can choose your time frame as per your choice, 5 min / 15 min / 30 min / 1 hour. As soon as setup is complete in your time frame then you can use 1 min for entry and for exit. Got it.

There is nothing wrong in 1 min or 5 min or 15 min or any other time for using setup. For 1 hour player 5 min is too small, same as you are saying about 1 min. Choose your time frame as per your requirement.

I do remember 5th Dec 2013 opening. As I was also carrying short positions but market was opened some 100 points plus. I squared off my positions in loss at opening price and then entered short at around 6328/18 and covered them at 6275/80 approx. Too big gap. Players use this to trap opposite side players here bears and as soon as it is opened the trapped players will buy to cover their shorts hence because of covering the price will move ahead. Who buys at that point simple normal public who thought they missed opportunity. (Can you imagine Market players going long and public taking short !! It never happens. Psychology) Market players play short here. They fill every buy order (of bear who was caught wrong side) as well as fill every public's order of long. Hence Bears are on side after covering their shorts in loss, public is bullish and big players are Short. And the direction will always be of big players. Since no bears are left hence no spike on upside to shakeout the public bears. Price moves slowly and continuously in down direction. This is for big gap play's and always the same story for stocks and indix future. For shorter gap's its a totally different play. It can be filled or can't be. Generally gap is made to trap. Always remember in first five min. GAP IS TRAP. If gap is made to cross some resistance zone then chances of filling is very less. In short, SMALL GAPS CAN BE FILLED OR CAN NOT BE. BIG GAPS ARE ALMOST ALWAYS GOOD TO PLAY IN OPPOSITE DIRECTION. Explain you some other time. BTW covered imp points.

Just remember one thing. Market Maker will always shake you out before going in his direction. Otherwise they won't earn. They are not here for charity. Whether its Govt or Banks or mutual funds or big brokers or Mukesh Ambani or any big investor, they all trade and will never ever give you correct details. NEVER. Otherwise they will loose.

Just remember the case of Mr Rajat Gupta. Reliance was penalized by SEBI just 5 to 8 months back for some insider trading. (I tried searching that news clip in my system but couldn't locate it. Take help of Uncle Google) Its just a tip of ice berg. Picture bahut badi hai dost. So NEWS IS ENEMY NUMBER ONE OF PUBLIC. NEVER USE IT FOR TRADING.

BTW I went little out of topic. But enjoyed sharing my thoughts.

Regards

Strategic Investments

Thank you, but it dipped after the morning blast...

Hello Sunnyman,

Kindly go through the above bold lines for your answer. Same applied for today.

Regards

Strategic Investments

 

[XUV-500]

Hello XUV500,

First I never try to see any pattern, neither in candlestick nor in bars. Second even if there is any pattern of candlestick (suppose you pass me some pattern to analyze) I won't give it any weight age in my analysis and look price with volume behavior. I have studied candle patterns in detail for more than one year but now I use bars without open price just to see it in simple forms.

Regards

Strategic Investments

Troubling you much.
But can't resist. Value your time, hence do answer later.
Actually you already had mentioned for sake of simplicity.But almost every trader use OHLC.

 

[STRATEGICINVESTMENTS]

Troubling you much.
But can't resist. Value your time, hence do answer later.
Actually you already had mentioned for sake of simplicity.But almost every trader use OHLC.

Hello XUV500,

Still you have not shared about the secret of XUV500 with us!!

Open and Close prices are useful in candlestick patterns. Without open a candle can't be formed.

I use bars instead of candles. Close is the most imp price of the day. It shows net result of the day. Hence it is used by me. High and Low are useful to know the range of the day. So they are also used by me. Open is always between High and Low so its of no use for me. I never draw any line or trendline or support line or resistance line or anything from Open price. I never use it for any reference in my trading. Its good for nothing for me. So I deleted it from my analysis point of view just to keep as less information as possible. Can you suggest any use of it from my point of view ? May be I am missing something then I will include it in my analysis. I am doing analysis in this ways since many years and never required Open in my charts.

I am always available for friends.

Regards

Strategic Investments

 

[Grules]

Just read the thread . Quite informative ...... Just that its getting lost in the middle of too many threads , I am sure there is a big audience for SI. Keep sharing mate

 

[mastermind007]

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[mastermind007]

Hello XUV500,

Open and Close prices are useful in candlestick patterns. Without open a candle can't be formed.

I use bars instead of candles. Close is the most imp price of the day. It shows net result of the day. Hence it is used by me. High and Low are useful to know the range of the day. So they are also used by me. Open is always between High and Low so its of no use for me. I never draw any line or trendline or support line or resistance line or anything from Open price. I never use it for any reference in my trading. Its good for nothing for me. So I deleted it from my analysis point of view just to keep as less information as possible. Can you suggest any use of it from my point of view ? May be I am missing something then I will include it in my analysis. I am doing analysis in this ways since many years and never required Open in my charts.

Hmmm

In most TA software, I've always noticed one of the plotting style option as HLC and always curious to know on who'd ever want to plot a chart without Open. Now, that mystery is solved, Finally!!! :thumb:

While I follow the convention to do all important calculations and backtesting on "Close" prices, but I being overdosed with "Live in the Present" mantra from all and sundry treat "open" as an opportunity for fresh start whereas "Close" is something that happened in past.

Unfortunately, for many scrips, Open price shown at 9:16AM and close shown at 3:30pm often changes at 5pm after exchange does some data corrections (aka data tampering).

One of the most important ways I use Open is to decide the ROC; so my ROC formula is not 100 * (C - Ref(C, -1))/C but it is "100 * (C - O) / C;

Most Terminals/TA software only show ROC from prior close.

Again, I am not saying this to change your style or experiment with this. You seem to have a excellent chart reading skills, so continue with that. Just sharing alternate viewpoint w/o any implied recommendation

----------------------

Volume data changing is something that I've noticed too but I never actually thought that it was done on behest of few.

As a case in point, all the volume you had carefully posted in this thread does not match with what I downloaded from the exchange using ShubhaLabha is shown in Red

A. 18.10.13 = 84.13 Cr, Close - 6189 [COLOR="red"]64.89 Cr[/COLOR]
B. 25.10.13 = 86.79 Cr, Close - 6144.9 [COLOR="red"]52Cr[/COLOR]
C. 01.11.13 = 95.25 Cr, Close - 6307.2, HIGH - 6332.6  [COLOR="red"]89 Crs[/COLOR]
D. 29.11.13 = 78.87 Cr, Close - 6176.1  [COLOR="red"]19.07 Cr[/COLOR]
E. 06.12.13 = 83.35 Cr, Close - 6259.9, HIGH - 6300.55   [COLOR="Red"]15.85 Cr[/COLOR]

All prices match 100%

 

[oilman5]

Hi Strategic Investment,
here is another candidate for you in intermediate term- ASIAN PAINT.
Thanks for excellent observation on BHEL & Nifty.
Enjoy the ride!!!!!!!!!!