SH's 315 Strategy - how to use if effectively

[arti]

Help needed,am confused.

We exit when candle not touching 3EMA and enter again when it touches 3EMA,but in case of DLF,y'day: -

1. It gave bullish crossover,so we have to exit our shorts,but candle not touching 3EMA.So how to deal with it?

2. I remember in some posts back,Sukhi_atma said that we should exit our position and enter in opposite direction and exit when candle touches 3EMA.But i observed that candle was above 3EMA when price was around 313 and when it was lingering between 315 and 316,3EMA pulled up to touch the candle,but by the end of the day,candle was again above 3EMA(though price came down to 309). So how much we should wait when candle starts touching 3EMA?

I will really appreciate if along with others, SH also replies.

Arti

 

[Tradewithhunter]

I have used Buy: 3EMA crosses 15EMA (below)
Sell: 3EMA crosses 15EMA from above

Short trades were analysed and they had a winning percentage of 33% with drawdown of 40%.

Adding at 15 EMA touch would have increased the profits.

Tc

Also, your message says Anant's system profit is 106220 .... what about 315 ?

Cheers
SH

 

[trade man]

thank u very much sir for providing us such a valuable thread.

 

[SwingKing]

Also, your message says Anant's system profit is 106220 .... what about 315 ?

Cheers
SH

Accidentally put Anant's name thr since I had used the same format for result posting .... have edited tht now.

Tc

 

[rkkarnani]

Re: SH 315 Back Testing Results

I have back tested SH315 system for those who want to see the accuracy and profit % of the signals given by this system. I don't know if this has been done earlier. But anyway I think it will benefit those who have doubts, queries about the system. To earn from a system, one needs to understand it in and out. This is just a small step towards it. I have earlier back tested Anant's (asnavale) system and the results were very well received by the thread participants. I hope participants of this thread also understand the importance of back testing.

Though it's not bad at present, I feel there is scope for improvement.

Overall, I think this system is good. It is a trend following system which is based on very basic rules. Such system's are usually robust and those who stick with them for a long time, surely benefit from it. Entry and Exit rules can be tweaked to get better results. But I leave that for SH to decide upon.

The results mentioned here depend on many factors. By changing the factors, the results yielded can change. I have just used the setting which I feel are comfortable for me.

Raunak, Can u elaborate what settings did you use?

 

[SwingKing]

Re: SH 315 Back Testing Results

Raunak, Can u elaborate what settings did you use?

RK have mentioned those settings in the results. (Equity, symbol, stop loss etc)

Tc.

 

[vinst]

Hi,

For the past few days I have been running codes to see optimization of 2 ema crossover systems by using about 130 scrips. Two major conclusions came out:

1) It is better to trade the next day after cross over. If it is a bullish crossover, the the high of crossover day needs to be taken out (low if it is a bearish crossover). In some scrips, this boosted returns by as much as 50% (25-30% was general improvement).
2) ema 3-15 was not optimum for most of the scrips. this was surprising. combinations like 4-63 and 5-57 were more profitable.

I do not have facility of analyze system in detail like Raunak did. Can raunaq analyze system parameters with settings of 4-63 emas ?

regards,
vin

 

[SwingKing]

Hi,

For the past few days I have been running codes to see optimization of 2 ema crossover systems by using about 130 scrips. Two major conclusions came out:

1) It is better to trade the next day after cross over. If it is a bullish crossover, the the high of crossover day needs to be taken out (low if it is a bearish crossover). In some scrips, this boosted returns by as much as 50% (25-30% was general improvement).
2) ema 3-15 was not optimum for most of the scrips. this was surprising. combinations like 4-63 and 5-57 were more profitable.

I do not have facility of analyze system in detail like Raunak did. Can raunaq analyze system parameters with settings of 4-63 emas ?

regards,
vin

Vin,

You are right in saying that 3-15 is not optimum for every security. However, it has not been optimized (curve fitted) and hence it should do well most of the times. The problems with optimization is that on past data the values seem to work good but on live feed the results are often not that great. You can always get values and systems based on optimization which perform better. However, past performance is not guaranteed in future. As professional traders we need to keep this in mind.

Tc.

 

[dhimanin]

Sir,
i agree with u

cheers
ssdhiman

 

[raj_usb]

Raj - in 315 we exit if 3 EMA is not touching the candle and re-enter when it touches.

In 534, we still exit at 3 EMA not touching and re-enter. We do not use 5 EMA just becuase we are using 534. Rest crossovers are to be used between 5 EMA and 34 EMA.

Cheers
SH

Hi SH,
As per 534 we would have entered Nickel on 12-Feb-10 @ 862.40 due to 534 bullish crossover. We have to book our half profit at 5% profit swing @ 905.52 on 16-Feb-10. Remaining half we hold till we get 10% profit swing @ 948.64. On 20-Feb-2010 at close of 951.10 we book remaining half profit. After booking our 100% profit at swing of 10%, Nickel is rising from that level. On 10-Apr-2010 Nickel is closed @ 1118.40. So as per 534 we miss the rally of Nickel from 951.1 to 1118.40. Still Nickel has not given bearish crossover and it may rise further. So in such situation what we are supposed to do? Shud we just wait and watch for 534 bearish crossover? Or shud we re-enter? Then at what level and on which basis? During this rally Nickel has never touched 34 ema. So pls let me know how to handle such situation in 534.

Thks.

-Raj