SH's 315 Strategy - how to use if effectively

[Tradewithhunter]

Dear SH,
Any reason for this 50% entry ?

50% now becuase its just 60-70 points away from 15 EMA .... rest 50% at 15 EMA touch. No other real reason...I am scared that it might run up without touching 15 EMA which will be very frustrating.....

Cheers
SH

 

[trade4joisar]

50% now becuase its just 60-70 points away from 15 EMA .... rest 50% at 15 EMA touch. No other real reason...I am scared that it might run up without touching 15 EMA which will be very frustrating.....

Cheers
SH

Thanks.

SH,

Is there any reason why you think that it will run up without touching 15 EMA & why not crossover will happen?

Because 3 EMA is above 15 EMA OR results season is there OR combination of this?

 

[optionspro]

Hi Sh,

I have gone through almost the whole of this thread and i must appreciate on this commendable effort by you.

I know as per this 315 strategy i should have entered the Reliance today EOD but since i do not have any intraday chart which can give me EMA.
So, do you think that Reliance is good candidate for Short or am i missing something?

If yes, should i be straight away entering at the open price tomorrow (actually tomorrow NSE is closed so day after)?

Cheers!!!!

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[umeshmandal]

Hi Sh,

I have gone through almost the whole of this thread and i must appreciate on this commendable effort by you.

I know as per this 315 strategy i should have entered the Reliance today EOD but since i do not have any intraday chart which can give me EMA.
So, do you think that Reliance is good candidate for Short or am i missing something?

If yes, should i be straight away entering at the open price tomorrow (actually tomorrow NSE is closed so day after)?

Cheers!!!!

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315 did give a crossover yesterday, but looking at historical chart of RIL, just see on 30th Sep and 9th Dec. there was bearish crossover but market did not breach the low of these days... so for Reliance (I also trade this counter with some other combination of MA's) I prefer taking position only on breach of the crossover bar's high or Low!!
So my view is that you take a position day after not in a hurry but see that the market is trading below the low of yesterday!!! Just my view and I may be proved wrong!!! So take care please.

 

[optionspro]

315 did give a crossover yesterday, but looking at historical chart of RIL, just see on 30th Sep and 9th Dec. there was bearish crossover but market did not breach the low of these days... so for Reliance (I also trade this counter with some other combination of MA's) I prefer taking position only on breach of the crossover bar's high or Low!!
So my view is that you take a position day after not in a hurry but see that the market is trading below the low of yesterday!!! Just my view and I may be proved wrong!!! So take care please.

Hi Umesh,

I see your point and it makes total sense, however what you are suggesting is a good way to escape from some of the false calls and whipsaws but I found that there is still some scope to improve and to classify a cross over between a trend and a whipsaw.

See below the chart of DLF:

On 31st Dec and 11th Feb it moved to Bullish cross over and the next day it breached the high of the previous day which means confirming the cross over as per your strategy however it came back the next day and hence proved everyone wrong.

What are your thoughts on this, can we prevent somehow from these kind of false calls? I think what you suggested is a way towards it but we are not yet there.


Happy Trading!!!!
Cheers!!!!!

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[umeshmandal]

Hi Umesh,

I see your point and it makes total sense, however what you are suggesting is a good way to escape from some of the false calls and whipsaws but I found that there is still some scope to improve and to classify a cross over between a trend and a whipsaw.

See below the chart of DLF:

On 31st Dec and 11th Feb it moved to Bullish cross over and the next day it breached the high of the previous day which means confirming the cross over as per your strategy however it came back the next day and hence proved everyone wrong.

What are your thoughts on this, can we prevent somehow from these kind of false calls? I think what you suggested is a way towards it but we are not yet there.


Happy Trading!!!!
Cheers!!!!!

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One should trade stocks that he has had the opprtunity to study historical charts and the rules may differ from stock to stock. I try to find an appropriate "filter" which may reduce whips, but inspite of this filter Total elimination of whips is "impossible" as far as I think... I usually take the low or high of the bar triggering a buy or a sell as the Entry Stop Loss , this does not stop the whips but most of the time reduces the pain... in a few stocks I even take some quick profits on day of entry.. type of risk reward measure...

In DLF futures we got a signal on 31st Dec and the Buy was triggered on 3rd Jan, so the low of this bar of 3rd Jan I treat as my SL till the time high of this bar is taken off.
On 11th Feb, my chart of DLF futures (Real Time chart converted to EOD) shows a crossover on 14th Feb, the high of which was not breached!!!

 

[Visualize]

Hi Umesh,

I see your point and it makes total sense, however what you are suggesting is a good way to escape from some of the false calls and whipsaws but I found that there is still some scope to improve and to classify a cross over between a trend and a whipsaw.

See below the chart of DLF:

On 31st Dec and 11th Feb it moved to Bullish cross over and the next day it breached the high of the previous day which means confirming the cross over as per your strategy however it came back the next day and hence proved everyone wrong.

What are your thoughts on this, can we prevent somehow from these kind of false calls? I think what you suggested is a way towards it but we are not yet there.


Happy Trading!!!!
Cheers!!!!!

DLF futures has a lot of 1000 shares. So one whip will cost anywhere between 10k-20k. It has good volumes in futures so no problem with liquidity. DLF gave 4 whips before this big move just like NF.

SH had once mentioned that if we want to trade in stock futures then we should have enough capital to confront ~7 whip's.

 

[rh6996]

DLF futures has a lot of 1000 shares. So one whip will cost anywhere between 10k-20k. It has good volumes in futures so no problem with liquidity. DLF gave 4 whips before this big move just like NF.

SH had once mentioned that if we want to trade in stock futures then we should have enough capital to confront ~7 whip's.

4 Whips costed around ~Rs.35.00 without brokerage or STT, and the new trend has just been able to give back the loss of these 4 whips!!! The price has turned southward and if we dont get a signal soon we will not be able to cover the losses of the whips if not already booked profits at a pre defined level!!!

 

[manoharpillai]

Trend may reverse between: Level for: yesbank 330-340 support at 285-290 Level For Dlf 275- 280 support at 245-250

Please ref. to my earlier post.

 

[dp33770]

Hi ,
Please let me know the below data for DLF is correct or not ?
In SPOT 3EMA - 257.5 and 15EMA - 255.5
In Future 3EMA - 258.5 and 15EMA - 256.0

so tomorrow if DLF is above 250 at 3.25 , shall we consider it as a add on 15EMA touch and if its below 250 at 3.25 shall we go for SHORT ?

Regards,
Deep

4 Whips costed around ~Rs.35.00 without brokerage or STT, and the new trend has just been able to give back the loss of these 4 whips!!! The price has turned southward and if we dont get a signal soon we will not be able to cover the losses of the whips if not already booked profits at a pre defined level!!!