SH's 315 Strategy - how to use if effectively

[msa5678]

AFAIK, SH traded stock futures in the start and then switched to nifty. I am tracking this thread since Sep 2010.

As the primary requirement of this strategy is high volume, Nifty is the best bet on the list. Volatile markets ruin this strategy.

IMO, stock futures require a little more money, attention and patience during the time of volatility.

Hi Visualize,

You are correct in saying that Nifty is the best bet on the list. But there are certain stocks which follow the strategy as if it is written for them only. DLF. ICICI and RIL are some of them. If you do a bactest on the stocks you will get a good list. I have one such idea of bactesting and preparing a shorlist of such stocks. But currently I am engaged in some projects and as such am not able to concentrate on this. I have an outline of the process involved in doing the backtest. If someone volunteers I will outline the procedure.

Regards

 

[sparun]

Hi Visualize,

You are correct in saying that Nifty is the best bet on the list. But there are certain stocks which follow the strategy as if it is written for them only. DLF. ICICI and RIL are some of them. If you do a bactest on the stocks you will get a good list. I have one such idea of bactesting and preparing a shorlist of such stocks. But currently I am engaged in some projects and as such am not able to concentrate on this. I have an outline of the process involved in doing the backtest. If someone volunteers I will outline the procedure.

Regards

hi iam ready to backtest the data pls tell me the procedure i will do it

 

[mmca2006]

SH, can you comment on this query ???

please refer post no 955 of page 96 of this thread, you will get the name of shares referred by TH

 

[msa5678]

hi iam ready to backtest the data pls tell me the procedure i will do it

Hi Sparun,

A general idea is like this. I have a AFL to spot crossover of EMA3 and EMA15. It will also give the rate of entry and exit. Using this AFL we will check the performance of the scrip for the past one year. We wiil be checking only stocks which have futures enabled. What we are looking for is stocks which have made lesser crossovers in the said period. Once we shortlist them in the first cycle we will check the shorlisted stocks for a period of 3 years. I hope it is clear upto here. Next we will fix certain criteria for the stock after crossover.

 

[rkkarnani]

3ema will go below 15 ema only if NF goes below 5438 today

use this formula to find out crossover point

crossover point=(EMA(Close,3) * (2 / 4 - 1)-EMA(Close,15) * (2 / 16 - 1)) / (2 /4- 2 /16);

Thanks!!
Seems like a mathematical calculation, Tanewbie, how about giving an actual example with Calculation steps to help people like me , a bit weak in maths understand...

 

[summasumma]

Hi Sparun,

A general idea is like this. I have a AFL to spot crossover of EMA3 and EMA15. It will also give the rate of entry and exit. Using this AFL we will check the performance of the scrip for the past one year. We wiil be checking only stocks which have futures enabled. What we are looking for is stocks which have made lesser crossovers in the said period. Once we shortlist them in the first cycle we will check the shorlisted stocks for a period of 3 years. I hope it is clear upto here. Next we will fix certain criteria for the stock after crossover.

the AFL you are mentioning is for amibroker only?

 

[summasumma]

Originally Posted by tanewbie
3ema will go below 15 ema only if NF goes below 5438 today

use this formula to find out crossover point

crossover point=(EMA(Close,3) * (2 / 4 - 1)-EMA(Close,15) * (2 / 16 - 1)) / (2 /4- 2 /16);

Tanewbie,

A doubt in the formula....may be stupid one
what is that (2/4-1) thing?
Is the above formula also equals to:

crossover point=(EMA(Close,3) * (1 / 2 - 1)-EMA(Close,15) * (1 / 8 - 1)) / (1 /2- 1 /8); ???

 

[msa5678]

the AFL you are mentioning is for amibroker only?

Hi SS,

Yes it is for Amibroker, a simple AFL with a few lines of code . We can modify it later to include exit criteria based on a certain % of loss or gain.

 

[vinst]

Tanewbie,

A doubt in the formula....may be stupid one
what is that (2/4-1) thing?
Is the above formula also equals to:

crossover point=(EMA(Close,3) * (1 / 2 - 1)-EMA(Close,15) * (1 / 8 - 1)) / (1 /2- 1 /8); ???

'p' period ema is to be computed from
ema_today = close_today*2/(p+1) + ema_ystrday*(p-1)/(p+1)

if ema period is 3, then
ema_today = close_today*2/(3+1) + ema_ystrday*(3-1)/(3+1)
ema_today = close_today*2/4 + ema_ystrday*2/4

if ema period is 15, then
ema_today = close_today*2/16 + ema_ystrday*14/16

 

[rkkarnani]

'p' period ema is to be computed from
ema_today = close_today*2/(p+1) + ema_ystrday*(p-1)/(p+1)

if ema period is 3, then
ema_today = close_today*2/(3+1) + ema_ystrday*(3-1)/(3+1)
ema_today = close_today*2/4 + ema_ystrday*2/4

if ema period is 15, then
ema_today = close_today*2/16 + ema_ystrday*14/16

Thanks for your effort Vinst!! How about giving an example (actual calculation)
The figure may vary from others as I am converting RT chart to RT, but that is immaterial for this purpose!!

EMA3 on 8th June 5542.41 say 5543
EMA15 on 8th June 5520.70 say 5521

EMA3 on 7th June 5551.68 say 5552
EMA15 on 7th June 5518.93 say 5519

What other data is required to calculate the Closing price today (9th June) where EMA3 will be below EMA15? Please show the caluclations Step wise... (Asking for a lot of your time, but if comfortable please do it!!)

Please do it at leisure, no hurry...