SH's 315 Strategy - how to use if effectively

[Tradewithhunter]

HI KATHIK, thanks for th report. i have done som testing long back, pl se attachment here

in one week capital went down from 10 lakhs to 5 lakhs !!!! due to gaps. i lucky, i would have gained 5 lakhs in a week. pl note these trades are exactly as per th rules and capital protection rules mentioned here.

this is a ema system, which will do well ib tending market but will hit SL in range bound market. if u enter in trending market and make lots of money then u can suvive ranging maket. but opposite happens u account will be wiped quickly

i am not discouaraging u, but be aware o these facts. at ouside it looks a good system bt when u eally start noting down the trades, u ill ealize the issues. mainly gaps and u need to wait for EOD to enter. pl dig in deep and note down trade by trade exactly as per rules and be comfortable

Hi Bandlab,

Thanks for this hard work of putting the results on the spreadsheets. Though I havent checked the accuracy of the entry/exit signals.. i am taking them to be accurate at face value.

Just a few observations though:

1. First file (315 xls) captures Nifty trades between Jan 09 & March 09 and shows a profit of 202 points. You have picked the rangebound markets here and still good to see some profits. Obviously after March we had a huge rally of more than 2000+ points which was captured by 315 beautifully with several ADDs in between.

2. Second File (315_2008 xls) again captures NF movement between Sep 08 to Dec 08. Trending mkts and 315 beautifully captured the fall... your totals are wrong on the sheet ... minus 2467 points should read plus 2467 (profit not loss).

3. Third file (315_tracker) captures movements in various stocks in August and you have chosen the only week where we had whipsaw... 10 Lakh to 5 Lakh in a week really scares me though as you have said it should not be seen in isolation. Would you like to use the same stocks and capital and start from 1st Jan 09 and tell us what would your capital be as of today? Or to reduce work just stick to any 3 stocks of your liking from the list you used ... if you ask me my favourites are NIfty, Bank Nifty and DLF.

I am not being defensive here but I would urge traders to use at least 6 months as a testing period before making any judgement. If 6 months results are bad.. I would also love to hate this strategy with you all.

Cheers
SH

PS : 315 is going to give a sell on NIfty today .. are you watching?

 

[Tradewithhunter]

Its 3.23 PM now .. 7 minutes to go and NF is at 4946 (below my SL point). Exiting longs at 4946.

3 EMA has given a bearish crossover but not touching today's candle hence tomorrow we can see an upmove. However to respect the bearish crossover, I am opening 50% of Nifty shorts today.

Cheers
SH

 

[eevra]

Its 3.23 PM now .. 7 minutes to go and NF is at 4946 (below my SL point). Exiting longs at 4946.

3 EMA has given a bearish crossover but not touching today's candle hence tomorrow we can see an upmove. However to respect the bearish crossover, I am opening 50% of Nifty shorts today.

Cheers
SH

Did you sell your holdings when the stock moved down 4950 or waited until near close of the day ? And went short 50% towards close ?
thx.

 

[Tradewithhunter]

Did you sell your holdings when the stock moved down 4950 or waited until near close of the day ? And went short 50% towards close ?
thx.

Eevra,

NF opened at 4920 levels (below my SL) and kept sliding since open. 3 EMA was not touching todays candle body hence i held longs and waited for 3.20 PM to exit longs and enter shorts since, as i have already said earlier, we wait until EOD close to get a confirmed signal.

Cheers
SH

 

[eevra]

Eevra,

NF opened at 4920 levels (below my SL) and kept sliding since open. 3 EMA was not touching todays candle body hence i held longs and waited for 3.20 PM to exit longs and enter shorts since, as i have already said earlier, we wait until EOD close to get a confirmed signal.

Cheers
SH

Thanks SH for your crystal clear response. We are enjoying your well researched pointer. Many thanks for your gracious approach in handling queries in this group.

-eevra

 

[mmca2006]

Eevra,

NF opened at 4920 levels (below my SL) and kept sliding since open. 3 EMA was not touching todays candle body hence i held longs and waited for 3.20 PM to exit longs and enter shorts since, as i have already said earlier, we wait until EOD close to get a confirmed signal.

Cheers
SH

TH , one aspect is not clear i.e we have opened short because of 3-15 bearish crossover but on same day candle body was not touching to 3 EMA and it is one of the criteria to book profit , ie. same candle insisting us to go short because of 3/15 crossover and also insisting to book profit because candle body is away from 3 EMA.In such situation what should be our course of action. I might be wrong , please correct me.

 

[Tradewithhunter]

TH , one aspect is not clear i.e we have opened short because of 3-15 bearish crossover but on same day candle body was not touching to 3 EMA and it is one of the criteria to book profit , ie. same candle insisting us to go short because of 3/15 crossover and also insisting to book profit because candle body is away from 3 EMA.In such situation what should be our course of action. I might be wrong , please correct me.

Answer is simple mmca, it cannot be 'book profit' candle since we did not have shorts .. if we didnt have shorts ..how can we book profits?

It is a plain 'open shorts' candle. However since 3 EMA is not touched by the candle there is a possibility Monday we get a +ve opening which makes the Monday candle touch 3 EMA and then its 'business as usual'. This is why i opened only 50% shorts on Friday, rest 50% to be added when 3 EMA is touched. From that point if Nifty falls ..very well for my shorts. But if Nifty keeps going up we will end up with a bullish crossover and I will exit shorts and enter longs again. Depends how 315 looks at 3.25 PM on Monday. It can be another whipsaw for what it takes... but i dont mind whipsaws....for 315 gives me enough profit in the long run to bear whipsaws with grace.

Like for every bad thing there is a good thing in this world.. similarly for every whipsaw there is a profitable trend waiting to be encashed in future...

Cheers
SH

 

[mmca2006]

Answer is simple mmca, it cannot be 'book profit' candle since we did not have shorts .. if we didnt have shorts ..how can we book profits?

It is a plain 'open shorts' candle. However since 3 EMA is not touched by the candle there is a possibility Monday we get a +ve opening which makes the Monday candle touch 3 EMA and then its 'business as usual'. This is why i opened only 50% shorts on Friday, rest 50% to be added when 3 EMA is touched. From that point if Nifty falls ..very well for my shorts. But if Nifty keeps going up we will end up with a bullish crossover and I will exit shorts and enter longs again. Depends how 315 looks at 3.25 PM on Monday. It can be another whipsaw for what it takes... but i dont mind whipsaws....for 315 gives me enough profit in the long run to bear whipsaws with grace.

Like for every bad thing there is a good thing in this world.. similarly for every whipsaw there is a profitable trend waiting to be encashed in future...

Cheers
SH

OK it is clear, difference is "having short position" instead of "opening short position".

 

[gb333]

Ok ..
whats ur advice on Monday on DENA BANK, SUZLON...
3 EMA goes above 15 EMA
Last(27-11-09) candle close above 15 EMA in both cases..
what next if 3EMA goes above 15 EMA on Monday.. I should buy .. right????

 

[uday_in]

Hi Tradehunter,

Your 3-15 EMA system seems to be nice for swing trading. Now I want to confirm that Nifty going in selling mode or shorting mode as it has a 3 EMA crossover 15 EMA on 27/11/09. Please look at the following image and tell me.