SH's 315 Strategy - how to use if effectively

[rkkarnani]

On 18th market oppend (nifty fut.) at 4908 as per Excel sheet had the fut. came down to 4800 3ema sure to touche the candle i.e at 4908 ... the low made at 4845 so the 3ema did not touched the candle so the shorts should have been covered i think my study is correct if i am wrong comments welcome

As per strategy we exit a position on 3EMA not touching Price at Opening time!! If the Open on 18th was significantly away from 3EMA, we exit at open, we do not wait for the close of the market!! People here have modified this rule to their own comfort level. Some do not exit if the price is within the range or almost within the range of the previous bar though it may have opened away from 3EMA, some people cover the short when opening hing is breached.... but original strategy says to Exit when price opens away from 3EMA!!
By close we are actually looking for an opprtunity to reenter!!

 

[gb333]

Dear experts,
Kindly attach the excel sheet which have auto-update the Nifty Fut EMA values in a excel worksheet.

Regards
Gautam

 

[rkkarnani]

Dear experts,
Kindly attach the excel sheet which have auto-update the Nifty Fut EMA values in a excel worksheet.

Regards
Gautam

You dont need an auto updating EXCEL sheet to track EMA values! We are not tracking EMA values all the time. You can manually do it by feeding the EOD values of "CLOSE" !!!

 

[Tradewithhunter]

Gap down expected today .... which would mean 2nd candle starting without 3 EMA touch .... it will be worth buying some calls which will be anyways quite cheap due to expiry week and keep buying them if it falls further because a bounce back today or tomorrow is almost guaranteed.

The trick is to keepy buying calls on reach 25 point fall in nifty .... if a bounceback comes... exit calls with whatever profit you get.

Cheers
SH

 

[achopraa]

Gap down expected today .... which would mean 2nd candle starting without 3 EMA touch .... it will be worth buying some calls which will be anyways quite cheap due to expiry week and keep buying them if it falls further because a bounce back today or tomorrow is almost guaranteed.

The trick is to keepy buying calls on reach 25 point fall in nifty .... if a bounceback comes... exit calls with whatever profit you get.

Cheers
SH

Hi,

What if Nifty Fut keeps on falling till 4790? Then again 3EMA will couch the Candle (from wrong side). Am I being too pessimistic or once bitten twice shy?

 

[timepass]

Aside :
CNBC observed that in expiry week, the first 2 days are in the direction of the trend, the third day is recovery and the expiry day mixed.

 

[manoharpillai]

Pivot point nifty fut. For the day is at 4894 this could be a res. Point above this r1 at 4943 ......and the s1 at 4864

 

[Tradewithhunter]

Hi,

What if Nifty Fut keeps on falling till 4790? Then again 3EMA will couch the Candle (from wrong side). Am I being too pessimistic or once bitten twice shy?

Keep buying if it falls to 4790 ... it will definitely bounce back. I have started buying 4900 CE at 42 ... will keep buying if it falls to 30 , 20, 10 and averaging ... worst case I will be able to get out at breakeven...

Cheers
SH

 

[rkkarnani]

Gap down expected today .... which would mean 2nd candle starting without 3 EMA touch .... it will be worth buying some calls which will be anyways quite cheap due to expiry week and keep buying them if it falls further because a bounce back today or tomorrow is almost guaranteed.

The trick is to keepy buying calls on reach 25 point fall in nifty .... if a bounceback comes... exit calls with whatever profit you get.

Cheers
SH

This for those who have PMed me about this post from SH!! Friends please address it on the board and to Tradewithhunter and he always replies and he is in much better position than me to reply!!
Yes, this (taking position in Calls as 3EMA not touched for 2 days) is not part of the 315 Strategy but a corollary to it!! For details one can refer to another of SH's very nice observation in this thread :
http://www.traderji.com/technical-analysis/36825-shs-market-correction-prediction-strategy.html

 

[summasumma]

Hi all,

Can somebody help me in calculating the expecting NF price close today which makes it touch the 3EMA? Is it possible to calculate this without taking the help of charts based on cmp of NF and last 3EMA?

Please clarify.

Regards,
...summasumma