SH's 315 Strategy - how to use if effectively

[NTrader42]

_SECTION_BEGIN("EMA Cross Predict");
// Anticipate an EMA cross
p=3;   K=15;   //Change this values as required
EMAp = EMA(C,p);
EMAk = EMA(C,k);
EMAcrossClose = ((p+1)*(k-1)*EMAk-(k+1)*(p-1)*EMAp)/(2*(k-p));
Plot(EMAcrossClose, "",0,styleStaircase);
_SECTION_END();

 

[NTrader42]

// Book everything when ema3 going in the opposite direction of the position for 2 days 
ema03	= EMA(C, 3);
ema15	= EMA(C, 15);
FlagUP	= ema03 < ema15 AND ema03 > Ref(ema03,-1) AND Ref(ema03,-1) > Ref(ema03,-2);
FlagDN	= ema03 > ema15 AND ema03 < Ref(ema03,-1) AND Ref(ema03,-1) < Ref(ema03,-2);
PlotShapes(FlagUP * shapeSmallUpTriangle,  colorDarkGreen, 0, L);
PlotShapes(FlagDN * shapeSmallDownTriangle, colorOrange, 0, H);

 

[NTrader42]

Simple and good are relative terms... most of the MA crossovers are 'lagging" in nature, nothing spaecial about 315 being lagging!! Most os us here who have the most basic knowledge or info about TA know this. What makes 315 special is the exit and add rules!! It was really a very good observation by SH.
I agree with Umesh Mandal that trading just the Crossover may not give results worth trading them at all!!
Has anyone prepared any excel sheet for just the crossovers for say last year or two??? If yes!! Please post the same.

Its sounds funny when you are asking others to share their work, when you seem to be not wanting to do the same at your end. Your behavior seems to be that of a typical lecher :annoyed:

Anyway on a public forum one comes across all types of characters, can't avoid lecher types even if one wishes to

 

[gkpc]

Its sounds funny when you are asking others to share their work, when you seem to be not wanting to do the same at your end. Your behavior seems to be that of a typical lecher :annoyed:

Anyway on a public forum one comes across all types of characters, can't avoid lecher types even if one wishes to

Me a "Lecher"... okay good!! Does it matter to me.. none.. almost!!!! Though would surely like to know "What work of mine I am NOT sharing!!?

Maybe being a much more knowledgeable than an average member here gives you the liberty to call names as you know about TA and other analysing tools like EXCEL much more than others but a little restrain would be good for all!!

I would not like to blow my own trumpet but I did post relentlessly when "Kolkata Meet Indicator" , an indicator given by a senior member Uasish in the Traderji meet at Kolkata was being discussed and tweaked to make it better.. you would not know as you were not around. Not your fault but it did hurt to be called a lecher.. all have their own way of looking at things.. so matter closed from my side. I have created an Excel sheet, should be complete soon, will post the same and say good bye to this thread!!
(Thanks for inspiring me to share the Excel sheet.)

 

[vikrit]

these are backtest comparison by exit only and filter idea.
see results for 23/12/09 to 14/11/11 also for comparing two period.


this doesn't include ADD and 3ema touch, so after it, result become more positive.
also these result are for rough comparison. as there are many component in 315 which actually subjective & need judgement.
so, actual result will vary.


trade list zip file-
http://www. 4shared.com/file/FoZdHkbA/sh315-backtest-nifty-fut-jun-2.html

delete the space.

p.s.-results till 14/11/11. by mistake mentioned 21. short trade from 14/11/11 is open and in good profit.

.....................

 

[mangup]

Hi Mangafreakz,

I think you know me and some of my strategies which means we have been in touch before but you must be using a different ID ...

RSEX I no longer use to inititate trades though i keep an eye on it. Contrarion is one of my favourites... I have other strategies too which I use while trading like

EHL5 : which makes me stay in the right direction of trades and often tells me when the trend is potentially turning even before moving averages crossover etc happens...it gives good low risk entries as well in a trend.

LTMA Strategy : Which tells me nicely when a trend is about to mature and big correction is due. Here I am talking about catching 10-15% correction on Index and 20-25% correction is stock prices.

2 Turtles Strategy : For short term gains in a trading market.


I do not want to storm TJ with my strategies and often traders can get confused if they are taught many strategies since different strategies can sometimes give contradictory signals. Hence I have shared one of the most simplest strategies called 315 here and really hope people use it to make money.

I do not intend to share anymore strategies here and make things complicated.

Cheers
SH

Dear SH,

Is it the right time to share your other strategy viz.LTMA strategy & 2 Turtles Strategy now?

 

[lvgandhi]

I would like to Post a WARNING!! hazarding many members would not like it :

DO NOT TRADE 315 STRATEGY JUST ON 3 AND 15 EMA ALONE. IT WILL BE INJURIOUS TO YOUR WEALTH!!!

One needs to be well versed with 3EMA exits and 15 EMA adds to go for trading based on this strategy!!

It might have further been improved with the NEW exit rules but have not gone through them hence not commenting on them!!

I repeat : Do not trade the Crossovers only, the strategy by SH has much more in it than simple crossovers!!!

My backtest results speak differently for the period from 01-01-2001 till now.
only 3-15 cross gives profit in this 11 years more than 400 %
I am giving the link to the files.
Tradelist showing all trades
http://www.4shared.com/document/7sxfuHCg/BT315only_from20010101.html
Summary backtest report
http://www.4shared.com/file/NmZXTON8/315_crossonly-from20010101_-_B.html

 

[manoharpillai]

To me every trade inherit Profit and Lose but with technical reading which ever system one may adopt possibility of minimising lose. If a trader fail to accept the lose is part of trade will never progress to profitability... on the contrary they may end up in heavy lose. The trade have to be gauged on % of profit versus lose but thrive to be 100% profitable in all trade is absolute foolishness ... i had come across some fantastic write-up here about money management which have to be red by every one before getting in to trading.

 

[rkkarnani]

My backtest results speak differently for the period from 01-01-2001 till now.
only 3-15 cross gives profit in this 11 years more than 400 %
I am giving the link to the files.
Tradelist showing all trades
http://www.4shared.com/document/7sxfuHCg/BT315only_from20010101.html
Summary backtest report
http://www.4shared.com/file/NmZXTON8/315_crossonly-from20010101_-_B.html

Its a huge task that you have done. :thumb:
400% in 11 years!!! Dnto you think its not worth the trouble!! I think so!!! I may be wrong but is this not too small a return. Does it mean Rs.1/-Lakh becomes Rs.4/- lakh. Total of Col. H shows 445607 in 202 trades of average qty. ~90
I am not sure as am not much versed with Spread Sheets, I suppose the coloumn H shows the profit.. Would it be correct to add the Coloumn H from H154 to H203 to get the profit from 2010 to current : It comes to minus (-) 39911 in 50 trades!!!
If this wrong please post the Figure from end of Deecember 2009 to current also do clarify what its about the qty that is 100 or 50 at places.
Thanks again for this monumental task.

This simply proves what I have oft repeated that the 3EMA not touch Exit and 15 EMA add are the main strengths of this strategy!! Its difficult to back test these as these are 'subjective' and different traders would given different returns!!

 

[lvgandhi]

Its a huge task that you have done. :thumb:
400% in 11 years!!! Dnto you think its not worth the trouble!! I think so!!! I may be wrong but is this not too small a return. Does it mean Rs.1/-Lakh becomes Rs.4/- lakh. Total of Col. H shows 445607 in 202 trades of average qty. ~90
I am not sure as am not much versed with Spread Sheets, I suppose the coloumn H shows the profit.. Would it be correct to add the Coloumn H from H154 to H203 to get the profit from 2010 to current : It comes to minus (-) 39911 in 50 trades!!!
If this wrong please post the Figure from end of Deecember 2009 to current also do clarify what its about the qty that is 100 or 50 at places.
Thanks again for this monumental task.

This simply proves what I have oft repeated that the 3EMA not touch Exit and 15 EMA add are the main strengths of this strategy!! Its difficult to back test these as these are 'subjective' and different traders would given different returns!!

column L gives cum. profit only. That means 100000 becomes 545300. Whether it is worth the trouble or not depends on every individuals perception and no comments. I just gave the results.
From 15/12/2009, till date from 52 trades, loss is 53088. and from 21/1/2010 loss is 32679 from 50trades.
These are Amibroker backtest results. Not done by me manually.