SH's 315 Strategy - how to use if effectively

[varunsurat]

Nifty has falled to a new days low of 4563. This is around 320 points profit from the original short point along with 2 3 EMA exits and re-entries which have generated another 120 odd points profit ... in total around 440 points profit in this short .....

I have booked profits in futures and have bought 4500 puts for 55 points (2x quantity of futures to get the same profit as futures). Will hold the puts now until i get a reversal signal on 315

Even if markets reverse from here ... i will lose only 55 points

Cheers
SH

SH,

Now 15 ema is nearly 4775.. So we have to add shorts or wait for fresh 315 signal..

plls reply

 

[trader_boy]

today the 3ema direction was opposite for the second consecutive day...so say just using 315 strategy we exited today at close around 4740....then what should be our reentry criteria now ...pl guide

 

[trade4joisar]

Ok folks, let me try to put the doubts at rest once again.

Now as far as ADDs are concerned, I have posted two styles in the past for ADDS.. one for agressive traders and the second one for conservative traders who want to protect their capital. The ADD which you did was the 'aggressive' style where you ADD at 15 EMA touch without waiting. the ADD rule which Ankit Garg and KKR5 are highlighting are the 'Conservative' style of ADDs where you wait for the trend to resume again by waiting for previous candle lows breach.

Being aggressive or conservative for me depends in what markets we are going through vis-a-vis my positions. In a Bull market, I am aggressive with my Longs but conservative with my Shorts and visa versa. So you saw I ADDED longs on 15 EMA touch a few days back.. but yesterday I did not ADD shorts at 15 EMA touch but waited for previous days lows to be breached. This is because we are still in bull markets.

It also depends on how my original position is faring, if my original shorts are in huge profits when 15 EMA retest happens.. I can go short at that point being aggressive.

How do I define bull markets and bear markets? My logic is again based on 315. If on weekly charts 315 is bullish, we are in a bull market and visa versa.

Happy Trading

SH

Few paragraphs from SH's old post, which explains about action to be done when 15 EMA touch.

Daily NF chart

Weekly NF chart.

Hope this will help.

SH,
Your comments if anything else also has to be considered depend on new findings.

 

[trade4joisar]

My 'amended' position size strategy is below.

After a good trending move is over (a move exceeding 5% and above excursion in favour of the 315 trade):

1. Take 50% of normal trade size on the next crossover .. there is a 'high' chance that this crossover will be a fake. A conservative trader can also decide to skip this crossover completely or take an small positions in options.

2. Take 50% of normal trade size in futures if the above crossover fails. This means that we are back in the bigger trend and hence the chances of a whip are relatively moderate.

3. Take normal trade size if the above crossover also fails. This means that markets have gone into some sort of range and a new trend is about to begin.

4. Take 200% of normal trade size as in rare scenarios, the 3rd crossover also might fail. This happened with us once recently. This means the markets have gone into a prolonged range and hence the start of a new trend is imminent.

By adjusting the position sizing, we will be losing less during whips and earn more with trends. Do backtest the same and post your comments/queries.

Cheers
SH

This is from SH's old post, i have only included few lines from it.

"A move exceeding 5% and above excursion in favour of the 315 trade"

When you say move exceeding 5% & above, what that means?
Crossover price - next crossover price = > 5%
OR
We booked profit with the trend is >5% (including all add/exit rules)

SH,
If you can.

 

[Tradewithhunter]

SH,

Now 15 ema is nearly 4775.. So we have to add shorts or wait for fresh 315 signal..

plls reply

as per the new rules today we had second consecutive day of upmove hence shorts exited and wait for 3 ema to start moving down again to open fresh shorts:

cheers
SH

 

[trader_boy]

if tomorrow 3ema @3:25 is less than todays closing 3ema , then can we go short again or wait for two days .?

 

[achopraa]

As per my understanding, Today:
A Close above 4869 will make the 3EMA crossover 15EMA and enable LONGS.
A Close below 4707 will bring 3EMA below below yesterday's 3EMA and enable SHORTS.
Anything In-Between, position should be -"Stand Aside and Wait"

Thanks,
AC

 

[gambler]

I have shorted again today as 15EMA touch.

 

[Baloon]

Just FYI. Most of US, Europe, UK, HK indices has done a bullish cross.

There is a possibility that Nifty might get a bullish cross too.

I would wait for a bullish cross in Nifty to long. Or short only when the 3ma turns down if there is no cross.

 

[ssijbabu]

Hi TradeWithHunter,

Can you please summarize the final and full rule of this strategy. Because I missed few posts and unable to find the changes made to this strategy.

Waiting for you response.

Thank you.
Sujay