SH's 315 Strategy - how to use if effectively

[unbeatable]

But there is one more thing here...

After doing some analysis on last 1 yr data , I prefer to book some profits with 100 points in Nifty after every cross over. Bcos the 3 EMA which we see at EOD is not same as the 3 EMA which we see during mkt hours....

So , there will be some trades on each day which we can't see by doing some back testing using old charts as the daily EMA cant be seen using any time frma as few guys tried to do....

SH,

Is there any way to see wat the Daily EMA is during every 30 mins or any other time frame during mkt hours

 

[rkkarnani]

But there is one more thing here...

After doing some analysis on last 1 yr data , I prefer to book some profits with 100 points in Nifty after every cross over. Bcos the 3 EMA which we see at EOD is not same as the 3 EMA which we see during mkt hours....

So , there will be some trades on each day which we can't see by doing some back testing using old charts as the daily EMA cant be seen using any time frma as few guys tried to do....

SH,

Is there any way to see wat the Daily EMA is during every 30 mins or any other time frame during mkt hours

If you have RT data, and if you change the TF of the chart to daily, you will see the change in EOD 3EMA levels every time the RT price changes and the chart is refreshed.
The difference mainly comes due to the 'weighted' close that NSE gives as closing price for the last 30 minutes!! I dont know but feel the difference in 3EMA would not be very significant on most occassions!! Yes at times it can be crucial where we see the crossover by just a few points!!!

 

[unbeatable]

If you have RT data, and if you change the TF of the chart to daily, you will see the change in EOD 3EMA levels every time the RT price changes and the chart is refreshed.
The difference mainly comes due to the 'weighted' close that NSE gives as closing price for the last 30 minutes!! I dont know but feel the difference in 3EMA would not be very significant on most occassions!! Yes at times it can be crucial where we see the crossover by just a few points!!!

Karnani,

I am asking about the historical data and not current data...

I am already using live RT data for current day EMA...

But in order for me to back test , I need a way to find out 3 EMA for every timeframe in a day for previous data

 

[rkkarnani]

Karnani,

I am asking about the historical data and not current data...

I am already using live RT data for current day EMA...

But in order for me to back test , I need a way to find out 3 EMA for every timeframe in a day for previous data

Okay, got you now!! Yes indeed a difficult proposition!!!

 

[Tradewithhunter]

Yeah i saw that in chart that many times after touching 3ema it goes up,but if it goes down,let say for 3consecutive days,then what should i do.There can be two cases: -
1. It will touch 15ema and bounce back.In this case will add at 15ema touch isnt it?

2.It gets bearish cross at 15ema,so then will have to SAR.Will have gud amount of loss.

Sorry am just trying to absorb this system as I cannot do intraday(with full attention),so this system may help me.

Dear Arti - Under Scenario one, ADD at 15 EMA only if your original position is in good profits even at 15 EMA touch. you dont ADD at the same level as your original entry.

If you follow the rule of adding as above, even if it SARs under scenario 2 .. your losses will be much small.

As RK Karnani has wisely reiterated, we cant do much in such whipsaws.

Cheers
SH

 

[Tradewithhunter]

Scenario 2 are there in this system and take away a lot of our profits!! No way we can avoid it if we follow the rules of trading. We have to innovate as per our own trading comfort by exiting part quantities at ceratin profits or exiting if in a Long trade price closes below 15 EMA but EMAs donot give a reversal crossover for Short!!

Accept these whiplashes as part of this system and go through charts of last 2+ years to device a strategy for 'yourself' and then paper trade it for a Month in the Present before actually trading it with real money!!!

This is a really wise advice Rk Karnani, this is exactly how to go about with any strategy. Test it, paper trade it, start with small quantities in real world and increase your trade since gradually if system is giving profits.

By the way, I can give you another suggestion here to protect the capital and some profits here .. you can accept that or ignore it based on your trading style.

When your positions are 150-200 points in profit, close your Nifty Futures and book profits. Out of that profit ... buy at the money option ('Call' if the 315 is bullish & 'Put' if 315 is bearish). They usually trade at 140-150 points at the start of the month and you can get it cheaper if your are doing it in the middle of the month .....This way your entire risk in mkts is the profit you have already made in the trade.

If the trend is strong, even your options will earn profits.. if its weak and has to whipsaw.. you will be able to exit that option for 50% of its value (remember that 50% is still your profit)... and at crossover start afresh with NIfty futures.

This is again one innovation/common sense one can take to preserve capital and preserve profits (IF my positions are 500 points in profit.. I would not leave all that on the table, I usually get into options immediately).

By this, probably the annual returns would become 150% from 300% ... but even the risk goes down significantly.

Cheers
SH

 

[Tradewithhunter]

Karnani,

I am asking about the historical data and not current data...

I am already using live RT data for current day EMA...

But in order for me to back test , I need a way to find out 3 EMA for every timeframe in a day for previous data

I dont think you can do it now for historical data ...... better focus on the future now and learn as we go along....

Cheers
SH

 

[yesfive]

dear SH,

i booked profit nifty fut in 5206 at opening bell.Today f&o expiry day,shall i concentrate in Jan nifty fut?

 

[Tradewithhunter]

dear SH,

i booked profit nifty fut in 5206 at opening bell.Today f&o expiry day,shall i concentrate in Jan nifty fut?

Yes, Jan futures are the sensible choice now

Cheers
SH

 

[Tradewithhunter]

NF has made a low of 5177. NOw if NF moves beyond 5200 today it will pull up 3 EMA and make it touch todays candle lows. Hence I have bought at 5185 now .. (though its 10 points above my original buy point) ....

Cheers
SH

NF now at 5220 with 3 EMA at 5190.. thats a 30 point difference hence I have booked my NF longs at 5220 now... re-enter only on dips at 3 EMA touch around 5190.

Now as you can see... this is strictly not exiting at the open price but waiting for a sensible level to exit. I wont be able to explain one year down the line why I exited at days highs (if 5220 does become todays highs !).

Longed at 5185 booked at 5220 ... thats at 35 points profit in this trade till now.

Cheers
SH