SH's MArket Correction Prediction Strategy

[Tradewithhunter]

We are trading with EOD Data as advised by SH Sir and EOD data have one figure, hence no posibility of price touching the EMA.

Karan,

15 EMA was around 3342 when NF was touching 3500 levels a couple of days before the day in question. 15 EMA closed at 3332 when mkts corrected and closed around 3354 levels.

If you are still not satisfied, you can consider it to be a failed trade and move on to the next one.

Cheers
SH

 

[Karanm]

Karan,

15 EMA was around 3342 when NF was touching 3500 levels a couple of days before the day in question. 15 EMA closed at 3332 when mkts corrected and closed around 3354 levels.

If you are still not satisfied, you can consider it to be a failed trade and move on to the next one.

Cheers
SH

Sir, I have high regards for you and like a student I am keeping my doubts.

Regards
Karanm

 

[trade man]

dear sh sir i m new in this forum and not at all able to understand your sh market correction prediction stretegy kind explain the stretegy by charts. regards..

 

[Tradewithhunter]

Hi Guys,

not sure if people have been tracking the correction as per the timelines mentioned in the thread here...

Nifty tested 15 EMA on 26th Feb and today it will complete 6 weeks from that date.

So today, 15 EMA should get retested as per the correction prediction theory. Yesterdays fall brought nifty closer to 15 EMA.

As per my earlier post, this was the week to keep shorting as NF went higher since 15 EMA restest was due this week.

Cheers
SH

 

[VJAY]

Hi Guys,

not sure if people have been tracking the correction as per the timelines mentioned in the thread here...

Nifty tested 15 EMA on 26th Feb and today it will complete 6 weeks from that date.

So today, 15 EMA should get retested as per the correction prediction theory. Yesterdays fall brought nifty closer to 15 EMA.

As per my earlier post, this was the week to keep shorting as NF went higher since 15 EMA restest was due this week.

Cheers
SH

Yes sir...i have been tracking it....yesterday I shorted 1 lot nifty ...not squarred it due to no touch on 15 ema...

 

[AlokTewari]

Even Bank Nifty has not touched 15EMA since 26th Feb. So it should also correct by about 200 points in next one or two days. Nifty should correct about 75 to 80 points. Very interesting. This means banks will lead the fall in Nifty early next week.

Cheers !!!!

Alok Tewari

 

[vinst]

Even Bank Nifty has not touched 15EMA since 26th Feb. So it should also correct by about 200 points in next one or two days. Nifty should correct about 75 to 80 points. Very interesting. This means banks will lead the fall in Nifty early next week.

Cheers !!!!

Alok Tewari

Alok,
My chart is showing that BNF touched ema15 on 15-March-2010. There was another near touch on 25-Mar-2010.

regards,
vin

 

[VJAY]

Dear vinst,
My chart not showing...touch of 15 ema...

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[vinst]

difference between ema15 and BNF on 15 or 16 march is very small. I think this can be considered as a touch.

Sh ? what say?

vin

 

[trade man]

Dear Friends,

What I am about to share below is a swing strategy by which a trader can estimate the approximate time by which the market would start correcting against the current trend. This comes in very handy on deciding when to start booking profits and also one can start building a opposite position to the trend in the anticipation of the upcoming correction. PLEASE NOTE THIS A SWING STRATEGY AND TIMEFRAME APPLIED TO IS 'DAILY'.

This is not based on any complex calculations (like Gann/Fibo/EW) but based on a common sense approach and a belief that history 'repeats' itself. (Thats the underlying assumption of TA anyways).

I use this strategy on Nifty futures, once can derive a strategy from it for any particular stock they trade in through some trial and error.

This Strategy is highly inspired by the concept of 'Market Reversion to mean'.

Reversion to Mean rules for NIFTY

- Nifty futures price has to revert to 3 EMA within a maximum of 3 days before it goes anywhere else.

- Nifty futures price has to revert to 15 EMA within a maximum of 6 weeks before it goes anywhere else..

- NIfty Futures price has to revert to 34 EMA within a maximum of 16-18 weeks (4 months) before it goes anywhere else.

- NIfty Futures price has to revert to 100 EMA within a maximum of 28 weeks before it goes anywhere else. (7 months)


How to apply the above rules in Trading

- Look out for any daily candle where the candle body is not touching 3 EMA. Thats a signal for booking any profits and wait for 3 EMA reversion for entering again. If candle body doesnt touch 3 EMA for 2 days, one can open an opposite position and aim for 3 EMA as target price. This is something I extensively use in my 315 Strategy as well.

- Look out for a trend on daily charts where 15 EMA has not been retested for 4 -5 weeks in continuation. This is a signal that markets should correct now (target 15 EMA). One can start booking profits in 4-5th week and can actually open an opposite position in 5th-6th week aiming for 15 EMA.

- Similarly, look out for a trend where 34 EMA has not been tested even once in the last 14-15 weeks. Book any profits in 14th-15th week and one can open an opposite position in 17th week aiming for 34 EMA.

- Similarly, if you see 100 EMA not being tested in last 6 months, start building a positions aiming for 100 EMA retest in next month or so.

This I have found is a very strong tool to predict corrections (price correction or time correction). In my tests the success ratio is above 90% however I am ready to be corrected by anyone who finds otherwise.

PLEASE NOTE THAT THESE TIMEFRAMES ARE FOR NIFTY FUTURES ONLY.

Happy backtesting !!


Cheers
SH

dear sh sir , i cant understand your stretegy.in your stretegy u write 15 ema not retested for 4 to 5 weeks continuation wht deos it mean. plz kindly reply