SH's MArket Correction Prediction Strategy

[anilnegi]

Today in Nifty spot, 3 ema left for 2nd day

CMP = 6112.7
3 ema = 6077

Let see how it open tomorrow.

Yes sir perfect

 

[trader15]

Yes sir perfect

Perfect setup

 

[trader15]

I think you havent gone through earlier post by SH, He has defined clearly.Please read..

What he has defined I have gone through. He has defined will touch 100 ema and run away quickly in the direction of trend.

What he has not defined or I'm not able to locate is how many times will it touch 100 ema post kissing it. If you look at nift charts for few years or even. 1 yr chart, you will see 100 ema touching multiple times within lesser amount of time than mentioned by sh.

It has touched 100 ema. 3 times since July. In reference of which I was asking as per sh it should touch post couple of months not multiple time within 3 months

 

[trade4putuval]

What he has defined I have gone through. He has defined will touch 100 ema and run away quickly in the direction of trend.

What he has not defined or I'm not able to locate is how many times will it touch 100 ema post kissing it. If you look at nift charts for few years or even. 1 yr chart, you will see 100 ema touching multiple times within lesser amount of time than mentioned by sh.

It has touched 100 ema. 3 times since July. In reference of which I was asking as per sh it should touch post couple of months not multiple time within 3 months

Hi trader15,

I think you are missing the point. You are trying to trade the 100EMA touch, which is obviously not the SMC strategy. What this strategy does is identify patterns for perfect trading with positive results.

If 100EMA is not touched for a very long time as defined by the criteria in SH's first post, then it is time for traders to start trading in the direction of 100EMA. Once 100EMA is touched, your trade and hence your strategy ends. Then we do not trade as per 100EMA till the next time when you see that 100EMA is not touched for a very long time as defined by the criteria in SH's first post.

What we derive from the results we have seen in the past 5 years is that 100EMA SMC is a rare event and does not come quite often. We should focus only on 3EMA and 15EMA SMC which has a higher frequency of trading than 100EMA SMC.

As per the current status, Nifty does not stand a chance of 100EMA SMC in the near future.

 

[trader15]

Hi trader15,

I think you are missing the point. You are trying to trade the 100EMA touch, which is obviously not the SMC strategy. What this strategy does is identify patterns for perfect trading with positive results.

If 100EMA is not touched for a very long time as defined by the criteria in SH's first post, then it is time for traders to start trading in the direction of 100EMA. Once 100EMA is touched, your trade and hence your strategy ends. Then we do not trade as per 100EMA till the next time when you see that 100EMA is not touched for a very long time as defined by the criteria in SH's first post.

What we derive from the results we have seen in the past 5 years is that 100EMA SMC is a rare event and does not come quite often. We should focus only on 3EMA and 15EMA SMC which has a higher frequency of trading than 100EMA SMC.

As per the current status, Nifty does not stand a chance of 100EMA SMC in the near future.

Agree but am asking simple question instead of blindly following rule:- If 100 EMA is not supposed to touch again for couple of months, then it happening again and again in short period of time : What does this signify.

If no clarity on this, then its okay. If you know, please help understand

 

[trade4joisar]

Today in Nifty spot, 3 ema left for 2nd day

CMP = 6112.7
3 ema = 6077

Let see how it open tomorrow.

huuuuhh.

Today morning when i saw SGX nifty trading around 6202. I was in doubt whether price will touch yesterday's 3 ema or not. And was thinking of exiting as tomorrow is holiday.

But again it proved, everything will change to prove that this is magic. And this is nothing but the sentiments which is working and SH has captured it so beautifully.

BTW i exited NF around 110. So around 35 points profits including brokerage.

Dont have words to describes, how if we believe in what we know about great strategy works seamlessly. :thumb:

 

[trade4putuval]

Agree but am asking simple question instead of blindly following rule:- If 100 EMA is not supposed to touch again for couple of months, then it happening again and again in short period of time : What does this signify.

If no clarity on this, then its okay. If you know, please help understand

I did not understand your point "not supposed to touch again". This strategy does not say that if 100 EMA is touched once, it is not supposed to touch again. The price can continue to ride along the 100EMA for as long as it wants. In other words, there is no rule that says once 100EMA is touched, price action should stay away from 100EMA for a certain period of time.

To make it short, we should check the 100EMA only for the following.
When was the last time 100EMA was touched? Calculate the number of days and/or months from the last touch of 100EMA? Has this crossed the maximum limit set by SMC rule?

• No, 100EMA SMC is invalid. Do not trade based on 100EMA SMC.
• Yes, take the trade in the direction of 100EMA. Also consider other strategies for near to perfect entry. It could happen that price will continue in the opposite trend of 100EMA for some more days.

If 100 EMA is touched on any particular day, number of days/months is again reset to zero, and we begin to check again after 7 months to check if 100EMA has not been touched.

I hope I have cleared your doubts now.

 

[trade4joisar]

This is one of my favorite strategy which when comes, i don't look at anything else.

From last few weeks, i am analyzing 100 ema in lower TFs and it is working same as it is working in daily TF.

So here is my observations. Daily we have 6.25 hrs of sessions.

In daily it requies 28 weeks to touch 100 ema, so if we consider 5 sessions per week, so 140 candles.

5 Mins
=====
In 1 hour, there are 12 candles, so price requires 11.75 hrs to touch 100 ema.

30 mins
=====
In 1 hour, there are 2 candles, so price requires approx 12 daily session to touch 100 ema.

This is my observations and somwhere SH also mentioned about using 100 ema in 1 hour, but i have not looked at 1 hour for now.

So similar way one can take position (after 10.30 hours in 5 mins, 11the day on 30 mins) targetting 100 ema in these TFs.

Please share your views on this. Please correct me if you see otherwise (success ratio <90%).

I was short from last 2 days at 6207 with target of hitting 100 ema in 30 mins which was around 6078 and which then increased to around 5121 in afternoon.

In spot, on 17th Oct, 2013 3:30 candle low was 6032.55 and 100 ema was 6032 i.e. so only 55 paise difference.
I was talking to my friend that this 55 paise will create problem for nifty after 3 days.

When nifty was not going down anyhow, i was in doubt whether this will work or not but at last it worked and i exited at 6135.

So "Wait for Opportunity" + "faith on SMC" + patience gave reward.

Small correction here in 30 mins 100 ema touch, if i look at SH's daily count, he counts for 6 months, so for 30 mins it comes to 15 days i.e.
12 candles daily + remaining 15 mins of everyday comes to around 3 hours.

Here i am talking about Nifty Spot in Google finance.

 

[vishal7176]

@ trade4joiser

i respect SH , and i am fan of sh

may i ask u ....Is u take short trade only on basis of .....100 EMA tOO Faar and not touch in 15 days .????

can u more focus on your trade setup .

if trade will against you what is your SL ?? (Please define which basis you decide SL)

Another thing is about 315 Strategy crossover and its completly buy .

can you use GFZ ...FOR take this Trade ...

if possible please .....guide me about detail .....how u convert SH theory to your way .

thank you

 

[trade4joisar]

@ trade4joiser

i respect SH , and i am fan of sh

may i ask u ....Is u take short trade only on basis of .....100 EMA tOO Faar and not touch in 15 days .????


As in dialy, it has to touch in 7 months, one can start taking position with target of 100 ema.

Same way here also one can start taking position on 13th day as it will touch in 15 days. (This is my observation and not SH, so trade accordingly)


can u more focus on your trade setup .


What do you mean this this?


if trade will against you what is your SL ?? (Please define which basis you decide SL)


I am trading based on SMC from last 3 years without SL, never made loss, credit goes to SH (but i will not recommand others to do this way)


Another thing is about 315 Strategy crossover and its completly buy .

can you use GFZ ...FOR take this Trade ...

if possible please .....guide me about detail .....how u convert SH theory to your way .


When its comes to SMC, i don't look at anything else.

Actually few weeks back it came to my sight in 5 and 30 TFs and when i look at history, i found it somehow working same as what SH has mentioned in daily Time frames.

So then i drill down no. of days into no. of candles and then came with this strategy.

But as i said before, i can't be like SH, who has created so good strategy, but i am just using his rules to get maximum usage of his creation. So based on my experience of few weeks i can say 80-85% success.


thank you

So there is no words to describes on what SH taught me about trading world.

Hope this will help.