Hi all,
Today appears as if we are heading into an extremely choppy session. This is on account of the ONGC fire, the expiry of F/Os, and some disappointing results in the view of the market.
The ONGC situation is unclear yet, and how long it will be before the supply is fully restored, and how this is going to impact the petro/refinery/gas related counters is the primary concern.
With the F/Os closing today, the fight between the Bulls and Bears is likely to be intense. The bears, already gravely threatened in this bull-run, will do everything possible to bring selling pressure on the market. The bulls at this time have everything to gain, and will use their enormous clout to neutralise the bears.
The bears will obviously get a good leverage from the index heavy ONGC, and other related counters and here, despite good results, GAIL, which has been bullish lately may come under pressure. TISCO is already vulnerable as is Ranbaxy. Other counters like Sail, Bajaj Auto, and Tata Motors too are likely to be under fire.
On the up-side, there are several index heavy counters that have been bullish, and on the back of good results, there is likely to be strong support for them from the bulls who have plenty to choose from. I see good action in Infosys, SBI, PNB, M&M, and if the bulls mean business, Bharti, Dabur and even HindLever can clock gains. Tech stocks did well in the US markets yesterday, so hopefully Infosys, Wipro, TCS, HclTech, Satyam may all come to the rescue. FMCG major ITC is expected to come with good results, so there is hope from there, and RIL is also there as a heavy.
So all in all, things seem very interesting.
In the bull/bear tussle, the Midcaps again are likely to remain flat except selected counters. This should change next week, is my strong feeling, as the money will return from the bigcaps to some great picks that have remained neglected in this segment.
Im cautious today, and will wait it out to see which way things will go. Even so, my eyes are on HindLever which I have been calling while it was consolidating at 158 off levels. Now at 164 off, this has a good chance to benefit, and needs to close above 166-168 for a jump to 180.
I had called MRPL the other day. If anyone has position, watch sharp, and if it seems weak, seek to exit as there may be chances again later at lower levels.
Trade with caution and good luck.