madhura said:
Hello Amit,
I am participating after many days here...have not been trackin shares much...again started to!
india cemenet gave a breakout and if you see since 7 days making ascending trend...can expect around 125 there if trend continues...
On GTL , i saw the graph, but I can see no ascending trend there. Also not see any possibility of breakout...can you please explain this more technically?
Thanks
Madhura
Hi Madhura,
An ascending trend shows an ongoing upwards move post a breakout. India Cements brokeout at 88, a recent low, and rather than an ascending trend, it's showing a vertical climb from 88 to 122. However on the charts, it only gave a buy signal closing above 102.
As for GTL, there was an early sign of a breakout a few days ago at a close above 108-109 though it hasn't fully generated a buy signal yet. That would happen at a close above 113-114 with increased volume.
As I track this stock, I have observed some good consolidation/accumulation over the last few days made evident by the play of volume in relation to price action: Each time the price approaches 112-114 there is a quick rise in volume. You may think that's fresh supply coming in, but the contrary is suggested by the number of buyers and sellers seen. It's important to keep an eye on this aspect while tracking a stock for a breakout.
The reason for the suggestion that the breakout may be sharp is the way the ADX indicator has been lying low since mid December. It's often seen when the ADX remains low during consolidation, the breakout can be explosive.
My call earlier in the day was based on the above with a strict stop loss given.
The reason I've called it a dark horse is that this can be an unexpected winner and if so, the gains would more than compensate the risk element.
Bye for now.