Hi Ganesh...yes, I've been thinking of you, and this huge IT refund was just not expected. The news came out of the blue one morning.
The following is my reply from December 29 when you had first queried MTNL when it was on 142:
AMITBE said:
I have never considered MTNL as being a strong counter, and would exit now. There is not a lot in the company unless it's merged with BSNL.
At that time technically there was nothing in the chart not daily or weekly nor monthly that gave a promise of a future.
On the fundamentals too there seemed no reason to hold it looking at its current available numbers then. In fact there is no analyst, fundamental or technical, worth his name who would give any plus points to the business model or the charts of MTNL.
The EPS from quarter ended Dec '04 to quarter ended Dec '05 has come down from 3.19 to 2.02 and net profit from about 20000 lakhs to 12000 lakhs.
The story is the same with the results of the first half of '04 to first half '05. EPS is down from 7.01 to 5.18. Net profit down from about 44177 lakhs to 32619 lakhs.
On the charts where I have data from January '02 it made a high at 168 in February '02. In January '03 it was down at 82. Again it made a high at 162 in April '04. Then it sank to 106 the next month.
On May 1 '05 it had gradually climbed to 166 and then on May 29 it was down at 111.
Then on Ocober 05 it made a high at 140 and by October 31 it had closed at 109.
In the here and now, following your query on Dec 29 '05 when it was at 144, it peaked at 152 on January 9 '05. You had a good chance of exiting here.
Then again it had slipped to 141 on January 30 when your second query on it came. It had even slipped to 133 on February 3.
My friend, I am terribly distressed that you have gone and lost money on a counter that was an absolute dud to begin with.
I am even more distressed that you sold it finally, as it unfortunately turns out at my calling, at a time when the news of a huge income-tax refund came to swing it back up. Not that there is any uplift in the company on account of restructuring or merging with BSNL etc. It continues to be a dud by any account.
But finally I am distressed to the extreme at the fact that you did not exit at the high around 152 on or around January 9, which was well after my first advice of caution in the quote above from Dec 29.
And now you are in this loss not quite really on account of my say so, but more on account of a bad choice of investment in a bull market, and then hanging on to the trade when caution was given and a decent exit not taken when the opportunity came.
The market is a merciless place and one can only susrvive and profit from it with careful study, judgement, skill and ready wits.
I do so much hope you will recover your losses soon, but the hope is greater that you will make better stock selection and spend time studying the art of investment, trading, risk management etc.
There is no other way here in the markets, my friend.
I do pray you will recover the money lost, and I'll do all I possibly can to help select a few good stocks going ahead.
Do take care of yourself.
. CMP 417. You remember closed avove 419 will touch 435 and then further 50 point if crosses 440. I am in at 403.