Some Good Steals...

[AMITBE]

I have 25 Nalco shares @230. Can you plz advice the target. It also reached 310 on result anouncement but now is in sideways movement.

BOL

Hi BOL, nice entry on Nalco, but for now it seems to be dealing with a southwards pressure. Being in still, you may want to see how 260 holds out. If it dips there with a bounce back, wait to see what happens at 275-280 on the rebound. If there is strong resistance here, you could consider pulling out or take some off. But if 260 or even 255 area appears like being breached, you may want to pull out.
Regards.

 

[anthonyd]

Hi Amit,

how you doin m8? Would like to know your views on Zigma, the mgtm has declared a bonus. Scrip seems to be in the doldrums. What do you suggest?

regards,

Anthony

 

[AMITBE]

Dear Amitbe

am a newbie and a learner of TA.. can you please explain how you analyze a stock and understand that there is supply overhead... have seen this term being used quite a bit and was always curious as to what TA indicators are used to determine this... your guidance is deeply appreciated

rgds

Hi rvgandhi...Just as the concepts of supply and demand are central to the study of economics, so are these concepts central to the performance of price action of a stock.
The price equilibrium of a stock is in a constant state of flux, price equilibrium being where the number of stocks available for buying or selling at a given price even out.
As the price demanded moves higher where there is no more consensus on it, there are few buyers left and the supply increases as demant diminishes. The price quickly begins to move down. The effect of excess supply is to immediately force the price down.
As the price falls to a level where the sellers are unwilling to sell, supply dries up, and the buyers have to pay more. Now there is more demand then supply, pushing the price up.
The price where supply is greater than demand is called resistance in market parlance, and conversely when drifting down, buyers outnumber sellers, price meets buying support. This is support area.
A careful study of the price volume chart is enough to spot historical areas of conflict, meaning where price cannot easily be pushed below or above a given level despite repeated attempts. These are support and resistance levels. A breach of these levels would accompany a quick move up or down in the price, depending on whether a support or resistance level has been breached. This is a breakout to the up or down, till the next support or resistance level is reached. No indicator would directly give this information.
There is plenty of reading material available in the forum, lists of books, websites etc to help you along with the study of TA.
All the best in this journey.

 

[rvgandhi]

Amitbe ... thanks for the brief but concise response on supply overhead... will look for your advice as and when time arises.... thanks again !

 

[vizzie]

Re: NELCO, Kir Oil Engines and Asahi india glass

Hi Gaurav, this is a post from day before yesterday on Nelco while answering Vizzie:
http://www.traderji.com/36583-post3200.html
Not a lot has changed on the latest bar, a small 'Doji' in Japanese Candlestick parlance, for Vizzie's benefit. (It's a small bar, Vizzie, where open and close are about the same after a high/low of similar range. A Doji can be an important signal in a trending chart, which Nelco is not, and further there are several such bars in the vicinity, so no significance.)
Nelco is still sideways till the levels mentioned in the link above give confirmation of an upside.

Hi Amitda !!

As always, lucid n enlightening..
wonderful 2 read..

On my watchlist now, will update u with any interestin developments on Nelco..
which interestingly was the first scrip I ever bought..
at a gud price too... 43..
but knew nothin, exited at 47 after bout 2-3 mnths

Can make a more informed choice now being in the forum..

cheers
vizzie

 

[AMITBE]

hi amitbe,
how do we detect supply over overhead?
regards
ps: i have losing position in escorts

Hi ragh_ash..find a post above on supply, resistance/support etc.
The same holds true for escorts.
There are several resistance points where the price has met with resistance on the way up, above the current price.
Same way, there are several points where price has taken support falling back from higher levels in the past. These supports are above the current price too. Usually you'll find that an old support level will become a resistance once price falls below it and then attempts an upside.
There are enough of both in escort above the current price.
On the other hand there has been a bit of a buzz lately on Escorts so you may just see an upside from current levels.
Technically, you will see a few long bars within the last five or six sessions appearing in the midst of some quiet sideways movement. Each long bar is accompanied by an increase in volume. A long bar signifies a wide range between the day's high and low. A few gapups have been attempted causing volatility in price action. Possibly there's something cooking in Escorts.
A close above 94 will likely push the price towards 97-101.
Looking at the recent past performance on Escorts, it's clear it's been running on poor fundamentals. The caution with such a counter is, if the wider market gets volatile and attempts lower levels, this kind of a counter will get hit before others, and will take longer to recover.
Regards.

 

[AMITBE]

Hi Amit,
I am a new member.Being afraid of the market fall i cleared all my scrips a week before.(balrampur chini @ 161,Hind lever @ 242 etc)Now sitting in cash seeing market going high and high.
I have gone through your thread and you are a good analyst!I also seen your Nifty Fifty postings.since you are watching market a long time can you tell me whether entering and holding these scrpis during correction is a good idea?
Also can you tell me what impact will a 10% index correction will do to my scrips?If i am a full time trader is it better to enter the market through strong scrips than to wait for a correction that may or may not happen?(I,m tired waitng!)
Help me

Hi jntrade...don't rue your decision to book profits and offload your positions in the current scenario. The market can pullback sharply at any point throwing panic at these high levels. You saw what happened last week. Better be safe than sorry, and better to be in cash for buying opportunities at lower levels.
Yes, only look for strongly trending scrips in favoured sectors when a pullback occurs. These will be the first to recover from a fall.
A 10% corrrection in the Nifty will push it down to around 2880 from around 3200 now, a fall of 320 points. That would be a pretty severe correction and scrips across the board would take a harsh beating. If you are in cash then, well, lucky you!
On the other hand, there's no saying that market will not gain another couple hundred points from here. Don't let that frustrate you. The market is an ocean and their will be a new opportunity every day. The idea is to survive its vagaries and keep booking profits, which you have done.
All the best.

 

[garun1979]

Re: NELCO, Kir Oil Engines and Asahi india glass

Hi Gaurav, this is a post from day before yesterday on Nelco while answering Vizzie:
http://www.traderji.com/36583-post3200.html
Not a lot has changed on the latest bar, a small 'Doji' in Japanese Candlestick parlance, for Vizzie's benefit. (It's a small bar, Vizzie, where open and close are about the same after a high/low of similar range. A Doji can be an important signal in a trending chart, which Nelco is not, and further there are several such bars in the vicinity, so no significance.)
Nelco is still sideways till the levels mentioned in the link above give confirmation of an upside.

Kirloskar Oil looks better as far as formations go...an ascending triangle. A close above 216-219 with volume is to be looked for.
Asahi is a stand aside for now. How it deals with supports at 102-105 should be watched. Closing above 113 can be looked in again.
Cummins is ok still, as long as it can hold above 240-245.
All the best Gaurav.

Thanks a lot Amit. I do use TA but not Jap. Candles sticks. I use Exponential moving average's in conjunction with volumes and MACD. But it is at best indicative for short term trends.

Cannot calculate targets from it. Think cud use the fibonacci but dont use it.
U mentioned one Indian Mythological method of calculating the targets. Cud u send a link or two from where I could pick up stuff abt calculating TARGETS.

BTW MOLDTEK (526 263) UP N AWAY TRADING AT 62.5. any targets??????

Thanks...
Gaurav.

 

[rajesh.sadhanala]

Hi Amit,

Here is some news on GujAmb

Gujarat Ambuja (500425.BY) likely to rise about 3% from last close on unsourced Hindustan Times report that Holcim may hike offer price for Ambuja to INR110/share from INR90.64. Holcim has made open offer to buy additional 20% stake in Ambuja; it has 14.8% stake in Ambuja now, which it had bought from founders earlier this year. Report says rising stock prices of cement companies expected to force Holcim to hike offer price. Shares flat at INR97.75 Tuesday, likely in INR95-105 band near term.

It seems that news will have a positive impact on the share price. But its still says "It may hike offer price", this seems that it was not made till now.

Raj

 

[jntrade]

Thanks Amit
It is the words from the experts and experienced that helps us to hold during the gigantic tsunamis of market corrections!