Some Good Steals...

[AMITBE]

I am sorry I didn't acknowledge your comments on SonaSteer, though I saw it as soon as you posted. After all I was not known to be a loyal student in responsive terms . Sorry to dissapoint you. But I assure you I am one of the very keen student of you, always trying to learn and always waiting for your replies.

Looking for your further lessons.
Regards
Chachi

Hi Chachi...no bother, as long as I know my time is well spent making these replies. You can always get back when you have an issue.

This post is an update on SonaSteer.
Relevant excerpts from the previous post here. Note the text marked in bold:

I'm quite confortable with SonaSteer at this point, but my concern is with volume.
The latest bar has better volume than the past two bars, but even so it has to do better.
Why is volume important here.
Well, volume is important to hold up a trend in either direction and without it a trend would eventually dwindle.
But at this point it has to push the price line through a couple of important levels, in fact trendlines, to seek a clear breakout.

In the chart, note the two trendlines (white).
You can see the upwards sloping trendline as an important support line.
In conjunction with the horizontal top line, the sloping line forms a neat ascending triangle.
However, instead of a breakout, we see a breakdown (red ellipse).
Note the sharp spike in volume at this break down.

Now there are two levels of contention that the price has to pierce through.
One is of course the top horizontal line of the ascending triangle that had broken down. The level is 100.80.
Today's high was 100.70.

The other level that the price has to pass through is going to be formed at the point where price will meet the sloping white trendline in the future.
It's an important and a sturdy line, as can be seen by the price action along it.
I've been studying trendlines lately, especially on intraday Nifty, and often come across certain trendlins that will cause quite some difficulty for the price line on either side of it. Meaning, when the price is above such a line, it forms a firm support, but slipping under it makes it a strong resistance.
This trendline may or may not pan out quite that way, but will be worth watching. I'll chart it and if anything interesting happens, will post it.
The price may attempt to test these lines in the near term, and as they may likely give stiff resistance, I'd like to see more volume on SonaSteer.
It's the weight of strong volume, and also momentum, that can help price break past difficult levels.

My interest in MACD at this point is its use as indicative of the rate of change in momentum.
When MACD is positive and climbing, the gap between 12 EMA and 26 EMA is widening. This indicates that the rate of change of the faster EMA is higher than the rate of change for the slower EMA: Positive momentum is gaining.

It is exactly this kind of momentum, along with volume, that would help SonaSteer clear the difficult marks and move onto a breakout.

The chart for the above is here: SonaSteer.png
The latest chart is attached, and you may want to open the previous chart along side to see what's new:
Priceline is now coming in conflict with the sloping trendline, as anicipated. See the last two bars where price couldn't break past and fell back to close lower.
The earlier post and chart was four bars ago.
Volume has perked up a little but needs more to pressure a break above that trendline. The concern is that closing last two bars has not even kept above the horizontal trendline at 100.80.
Histogram has just nosed above the zero line.
MACD and signal line have merged, awaiting a crossover.

All seems fine, and can SonaSteer now push past the sloping trendline and close above it for at least a couple of sessions.
It's a wait and watch.

 

[srisara]

AMIT,

one question regarding ELDER. Is it making Flag? If true, then it can fly like anything in near future if market holds.

Enlighten me Sir....!

Satya

 

[rinv]

Hi Amit,

I entered Good Year at 95 a couple of days back. Your views and analysis on the same.

Also, I want to exit Dlink. I had entered at 138 almost 6 months back. It never seems to push up. Your advice on when I can exit.

Thanks,
Rinv

 

[saamy]

amitbe pls do reply

 

[chachi]

Hi Chachi...no bother, as long as I know my time is well spent making these replies. You can always get back when you have an issue.

This post is an update on SonaSteer.
Relevant excerpts from the previous post here. Note the text marked in bold:



The chart for the above is here: SonaSteer.png
The latest chart is attached, and you may want to open the previous chart along side to see what's new:
Priceline is now coming in conflict with the sloping trendline, as anicipated. See the last two bars where price couldn't break past and fell back to close lower.
The earlier post and chart was four bars ago.
Volume has perked up a little but needs more to pressure a break above that trendline. The concern is that closing last two bars has not even kept above the horizontal trendline at 100.80.
Histogram has just nosed above the zero line.
MACD and signal line have merged, awaiting a crossover.

All seems fine, and can SonaSteer now push past the sloping trendline and close above it for at least a couple of sessions.
It's a wait and watch.

Hi Amit,

Glad, I am able to understand evrything you wrote. You bring life to the charts. I will wait and watch.

Thanks
Chachi

 

[praki73]

Respected senior members,

In the forum i came to know that lots of them use TA and FUNDAMENTAL analysis, usually i follow the tips given by others and make nominal profit, but i dont how to do analysis on my own, will please some body guide me how to do the analysis properly, pl. suggest any websites/books/CD. I am residing in Banglore, if some body coaches me regarding the analysis, i will be greatfull, my mobile no: is 9448862985.

Thanks,

R. PRAKASH

 

[mahmeds2000]

Hi Amit,

this is first time i am writing to your thread. I am very afraid about market after reading the news of CNBC from supratik thread. In that thread let's see what Mowat say's

Mowat says, "We have downgraded India because we think we can get higher returns in other Asian and emerging markets. This is very much a relative call in what we still see as a bull market in emerging markets. So my advice to clients is to take some money out of India and put it to work in places like Taiwan, China, Singapore and the Asia Pacific region. In emerging markets we still like South Africa and Russia."

Mowat also goes on to say that there is anecdotal evidence that funds are shifting focus to other markets now.

He says, "I had many of my competitors downgrading this market below the 10,000 level. Also quite a number of funds are underweight on India because valuations are maybe 20-30% below current levels. It is a mixed picture when I talk to clients, I find it much easier to persuade them to put money into places like Taiwan and China at this point of time than to buy into Indian equity."


And this news making me afraid. so I wanted to know your views. Is really market may fall till 10000 level? Is there any possibility? What technical analysis says? What fundamental says? valuation are may be 20-30% below means what? Many more quetions are in my mind?

Or they wanted to create rumor to make market fall so that they start buying after that?

Thanks
wrgrds
Ahmed

 

[AMITBE]

I hold 150 pricol at 50.63. From the past two days it has moved up on quite good volumes due you think its a positive breakout for the stock.

Hi Sammy...so far so good on Pricol, and there's a lot it has to do still.
Keeping above the cmp 44 off is for starters.
Then moving above your entry and keeping there is the next test.
Then finally a move to test 57-60 should bring a lot of interest in this stock.

The levels mentioned above are ancient supply lines, meaning levels where strong resistance has been seen in the past.
The move last couple of days looks good, so track and update if you like.

At your entry price 42-43 should have been s/l.

Regards.

 

[saamy]

Thanks for the views. I am trying to hold the stock for more than 12 to 24 months as it is not one of my core holdings.

 

[AMITBE]

Any views on this and also on K.S.Oils (BSE Code: 526209)?

Regards,
Narendra

Hi Narendra...just for my views on KS Oils, it's in a near vertical climb and seems to be heading higher going forward.
However a short term corrective phase may be expected after the recent thrust. It was a little over 100 in mid Feb.
At 270 now, 258-260 is a support area. Further below is 247 then 232.
It may or may not test the lower levels mentioned here, but a close below there may render it weak for a period of time.
Even so the longer trend should be intact.

Regards.