Some of my forecasts
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Re: Sbi
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I had to print the chart to show what I was looking at and to show what I am looking at now. Yesterday's peak was 2028, so we have arrived at the cluster R, so it is time to head south.
Originally the tenken was at 1855, but has now reason to form a TK combo at 1928. That is now the minimum target.
It is expected this market is not through climbing. First, it is not out of the question this reversal pattern could take the market back to 1855, but once it has gotten its footing on the downside, then we should see the weekly tenken at 2170 hit.
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I had to print the chart to show what I was looking at and to show what I am looking at now. Yesterday's peak was 2028, so we have arrived at the cluster R, so it is time to head south.
Originally the tenken was at 1855, but has now reason to form a TK combo at 1928. That is now the minimum target.
It is expected this market is not through climbing. First, it is not out of the question this reversal pattern could take the market back to 1855, but once it has gotten its footing on the downside, then we should see the weekly tenken at 2170 hit.
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Kvram, yes they are apart of the trading platform when I opened the account. I did a print screen of my platform just to show what I am talking about.
Paul, trying out some analysis here. So far my record using ichimoku is 2-1-0. 2 is the number of winning trades. 1 is the number of potential trades which were so obvious that if I knew ichimoku earlier, I would have made it. 0 is the number of false trades. While net positive, these are not numbers which show months of experience. Anyway, I thought let's try out some online analysis with a learner on one side, and you critiquing on the other side.
I am looking at Infosys. I do not have GCI, but a mix of MT4 and MetaStock data. I have good real time data from MT4, and good historic data with Metastock. I do not have trendlines or pivots, so this is just going by pure ichimoku (not even stochastics).
At the monthly level, I see the price was very high above the cloud in January timeframe so it had to fall. After reversal, the price has crossed both tenken and kijun. One one side, the TK will pull the price towards themselves, but on the other side the cloud is pulling it downwards. I call it a draw with monthly not influencing the price movement (even though last month had a huge move and momentum).
At the weekly level, the price is under the cloud. It is also under the kijun, and a little bit under the tenkan. Not sure when the downwards move will reverse, but all of these will eventually pull the price up. Target appears to be in the range of 2700 (kijun).
At the daily level, the situation is opposite of monthly. Price is between the cloud and T/K. However, the cloud is on top whereas in monthly the cloud is at bottom. This implies cloud is pulling the price up, but T/K will pull it down. Price will hit the cloud around 2550, so that is probably the limit of any move because of daily numbers.
Without going into the timing of when to buy or sell (which is when stochs might come in), the feeling I have is that weekly is the dominant one as of now (not considering H4 or lower timeframes). There could be further up move until 2550 and then we get into all mixed signals.
Please critique this...
I am looking at Infosys. I do not have GCI, but a mix of MT4 and MetaStock data. I have good real time data from MT4, and good historic data with Metastock. I do not have trendlines or pivots, so this is just going by pure ichimoku (not even stochastics).
At the monthly level, I see the price was very high above the cloud in January timeframe so it had to fall. After reversal, the price has crossed both tenken and kijun. One one side, the TK will pull the price towards themselves, but on the other side the cloud is pulling it downwards. I call it a draw with monthly not influencing the price movement (even though last month had a huge move and momentum).
At the weekly level, the price is under the cloud. It is also under the kijun, and a little bit under the tenkan. Not sure when the downwards move will reverse, but all of these will eventually pull the price up. Target appears to be in the range of 2700 (kijun).
At the daily level, the situation is opposite of monthly. Price is between the cloud and T/K. However, the cloud is on top whereas in monthly the cloud is at bottom. This implies cloud is pulling the price up, but T/K will pull it down. Price will hit the cloud around 2550, so that is probably the limit of any move because of daily numbers.
Without going into the timing of when to buy or sell (which is when stochs might come in), the feeling I have is that weekly is the dominant one as of now (not considering H4 or lower timeframes). There could be further up move until 2550 and then we get into all mixed signals.
Please critique this...
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paul,
i request views on crude with the move to 84+dollars now.
it is making a strong move under 4hour clouds.last time when it happened in august it made a good move south for nearly 20 dollars before making any meaningful countermove.
i am holding short positions and in a dilemma to take profits or hold for more.
my charts indicate further south.but i value your opinion much
thanks a lot.
i request views on crude with the move to 84+dollars now.
it is making a strong move under 4hour clouds.last time when it happened in august it made a good move south for nearly 20 dollars before making any meaningful countermove.
i am holding short positions and in a dilemma to take profits or hold for more.
my charts indicate further south.but i value your opinion much
thanks a lot.
Wow! I'm impressed, and I don't say that lightly.
I only have one thing to critique, and a few things to add. BTW, I am only looking at the ichimoku without any regard for other elements of my methodology. There are traders who use the ichimoku as a standalone, because it is actually 5 indicators in one.
I think the weekly tenken is a little steep for an upside target. Price action took a strong dip under the daily. Last time it touched the cloud was back on April 14th. This means the cloud is fresh, and there is plenty of resillient action in it to resist price. Therefore I would look for the current bottom to contain at 2588, if not before that, as the cluod is taking a sharp drop by Tuesday of next week
Another thing is look at the daily and noticed how it extends in the future. The candle has already passed the level on that extension, which is also warning of a reversal.
I know you said you have no way to draw a TL, but most people do not see it this way, so I'm going to dig up a new can of worms. Ichimoku is so complete it even has a TL indicator (not drawing tool) built right into it. That is the least heralded of all it components, and possibly the most underrated, and that is the chinkou. There is also a nice confluence going on. Notice the chinkou trying to pass to the upside of the candles. The rule is when the chinkou crosses, that is your entry point. The rule also states. like any TL, when the candle hits it, it is due for a reversal. The confluence of other indications within the ichimoku will tell us what would happen at that point.
There are plenty of R's on the weekly with the tenken at 2493, the part in the past where it leveled at 2540. There is also the monthly kijun at 2563.
One thing that stands out on the monthly is price action, along with the current level relative to the TK. It has come down the hill a lot faster than it went up. Think of it in terms of an earthquake. An earthquake has tremors. Price action has a residual effect, which leads to believe it is headed lower. Needless to say, if it makes it there, the cloud will act as strong support.
I only have one thing to critique, and a few things to add. BTW, I am only looking at the ichimoku without any regard for other elements of my methodology. There are traders who use the ichimoku as a standalone, because it is actually 5 indicators in one.
I think the weekly tenken is a little steep for an upside target. Price action took a strong dip under the daily. Last time it touched the cloud was back on April 14th. This means the cloud is fresh, and there is plenty of resillient action in it to resist price. Therefore I would look for the current bottom to contain at 2588, if not before that, as the cluod is taking a sharp drop by Tuesday of next week
Another thing is look at the daily and noticed how it extends in the future. The candle has already passed the level on that extension, which is also warning of a reversal.
I know you said you have no way to draw a TL, but most people do not see it this way, so I'm going to dig up a new can of worms. Ichimoku is so complete it even has a TL indicator (not drawing tool) built right into it. That is the least heralded of all it components, and possibly the most underrated, and that is the chinkou. There is also a nice confluence going on. Notice the chinkou trying to pass to the upside of the candles. The rule is when the chinkou crosses, that is your entry point. The rule also states. like any TL, when the candle hits it, it is due for a reversal. The confluence of other indications within the ichimoku will tell us what would happen at that point.
There are plenty of R's on the weekly with the tenken at 2493, the part in the past where it leveled at 2540. There is also the monthly kijun at 2563.
One thing that stands out on the monthly is price action, along with the current level relative to the TK. It has come down the hill a lot faster than it went up. Think of it in terms of an earthquake. An earthquake has tremors. Price action has a residual effect, which leads to believe it is headed lower. Needless to say, if it makes it there, the cloud will act as strong support.
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