Some of my forecasts

[krishere]

Hi Paul.... What do you think of USDINR in the coming weeks and months???

Tks

 

[NANDAMAD]

Sir Paul,

waiting for mothly forecasts on nifty, sbi, reliance,infosys

regards
nanda

 

[rajesh.sadhanala]

Thank you for the detailed explanation.

I have a methodology and money management in place. I want to know experienced people opinions so I can learn from them.

I use to be a high risk trader but now I am also a very conservative trader.Its true that I get stressed at times then I take a break for sometime before getting back again. I realised that I am lacking at discipline at times.

What is maximum percentage of leverage that you use at any point of time.

USD/JPY pair is very boring.

The most interesting pair to me is EURUSD and AUDUSD.

Regards
Raj

Rajesh, I agree with you 100%. I have always said that trading is so open-ended as far as the individual is concerned. I'm talking about the techniques, approaches, how long someone likes to hold on to a trade, etc. There are about three things that are no room for opinion, and if you don't have them you are bound to fail in trading, and they are:
1. Methodology
2. Money management
3. Mind discipline

Having said that, when you ask about position size and money management you should use, that is a personal thing. You might like to scalp, daytrade, or even position trade. All those tenures of trades may require different size stops and even position size.
Other types of trades could have a backup plan to it. As an example someone may take a trade thinking the trade is going to go this direction today, but something happens. A look at the analysis for the bigger picture shows that market will still be there over the longer haul, so they hang on to it, and with the longer picture in view someone takes a position size in accordance with that view.
Personally, I am one to add to my position as time goes on. if it goes against me. Most people do not have the stomach to do that. This is where the full confidence in my S&R's as well as other aspects of my methodology come in at.
The one biggest trade I ever had was in the latter part of 2008. It went against me of 300 pips before it turned in my favor. When it was over, it was +2,000 pips. My position size was in accordance with my longer term view. Having said that, there are a lot of people that do not have the stomach to let a trade go over 300 pips against them.
There are some daytrades I take that I won't let it go against me 20 pips and I'll take it out.
All circumstances are different. Other trades are based strictly on a confidence factor.
Another factor is the type of accounts someone has. I view this as something that sells e-books. It is the type of account that the trader has 1000,s in another account, so he opens a separate account with $500, and in a few months grows it to $10,000 with ridiculous lot sizes and he got lucky. Yet, his main account would not have been managed nowhere nears that.

You get the picture. There are so many variables. If you are uncertain of your position size or your money management skills, but your methodology is already in place, then I would suggest to experiment on a demo account. Until you have made a conclusion, I would trade being very conservative.
Take a nerve test test. If you can't open a trade, then shut your computer down, and be perfectly calm about it, and just go on and enjoy your life, then it is either something is wrong with your methodology or your money management, which could mean stop size or position size.

 

[4xpipcounter]

AUD/USD S&R correction

Aud/usd 1.0026 0.9860 0.9760 0.9560 0.9460 -0.9294

 

[4xpipcounter]

Folks, keep posting questions and comments.
I'm not ignoring anyone. I'm still behind on the Weekly Forecast. It's my priority until it is finished. I've had a busy but enjoyable weekend.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Strong reversals in order

As I continue to work on the Weekly Forecast, it should be noted very strong reversals on the USD pairs and many crosses are forthcoming.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Weekly Forecast--100211

EUR/USD: This pair could continue south this week to the WS1 at 1.3295. That should be it to the south for the week, and maybe for the month. The month and the week ended on top of the monthly TL, as well as on top of the bottom of the weekly cloud and the extreme lower level of the weekly SD channel.

USD/JPY: This pair could be ready for a sharp return to the DOWN at 77.58, the WR2. That point also matches up nicely with the bottom of the daily cloud. The pair just found its way out of the 4-hour cloud with some nice momentum. The daily cloud is fresh, so it all indicates one of 2 things: 1. 77.58 contains, and the movement out of the 4-hour cloud is short-lived; 2. We have a very sharp move on the other side of the cloud.
Having said that, we could see this pair hit that mark then travel east for awhile then take out the bottom of the cloud. That could be the most likely scenario.

GBP/USD: The bottom of the weekly cloud, currently at 1.5325 still has not been hit. It still needs to be visited, but it also has the means for a bounce that will contain a very strong reversal. For now and with the strong reversal implications, that seems like such a long way. Regardless seeing that level hit is the most favorable scenario, and if it is hit, then a very strong return to the UP has begun.

USD/CHF: This pair is also getting ready for a very powerful reversal. The bottom of the weekly cloud at .9407 will contain. Also, look for a strong reaction at the WR2 at .9200.

EUR/CHF: There will probably not be much of a down move to start the week, and this pair could very well hit the WR3 at 1.2277 before the week is out.
MT, the bottom of the weekly cloud is 1.2946, and additional R will be 1.2740. Either one of those marks could be means for containment that will herald a more meaningful correction.

AUD/USD: This pair is still ticketed for .9390 and even .9324. The latter will provide the means for an explosive reversal. The trip south should continue this week to the WS1 at .9560. It could make a sprint to the WS2 at .9460. A move back to the level kijun on the 4-hour at .9802 should be forthcoming.

USD/CAD: Containment to the upside this week should be the WR1 at 1.0600. The reversal could be explosive from that point. The top of the weekly cloud at 1.0188 and even lower is not out of the question.

NZD/USD: Im looking for the top of the weekly cloud at .7502 to contain the MT before we get a very strong reversal.

EUR/GBP: The bottom of the weekly cloud is .8504, which matches nicely with the WS2 at .8496. That area will provide a springboard for a strong reversal. It will take a strong move to get there if it starts the week heading in that direction. It could take on an awkward zig zag pattern to get if it doesnt.

EUR/JPY: This pair is getting ready for a very strong MT reversal as it is facing extreme levels on the weekly. A move south to begin the week should be forthcoming. Watch for raection at 102.27. Once the MT correction begins R to be at the weekly tenken at 108.03, then the TL at 111.32. The bottom of the cloud at 114.40 contains.

GBP/JPY: It appears the correction has already begun for this pair. 119.49 is cluster S on the 4-hour. The daily tenken at 118.80 needs to contain to be convinced the correction has begun. On the way north, look for the weekly tenken at 123.79 to be strong R, the kijun at 128.39 to be possible containment and strong R, the bottom of the cloud at 131.35 to be absolute containment.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Let me share my view on this and further validate my personal opinion on this.

First, you are right that on the 4hour it looks like it has broken out of the tight consolidation. On the daily and going back to Aug. 10 it is going east. By the time it has ranged to the bottom of the cloud on the daily it has ranged high above the 4-hour, which is an indirect ichimoku confluence. The bottom of the daily cloud is 77.44, and then add to that my WR2 at 77.58, and you have a very strong confluence of R in that area.

As you duly noted, the stochastics has some momentum to them on the hourly, 4-hour, daily, and weekly, but none were OS before they took off. The most overriding TF right now is still the monthly as the stochastics point sharply south. This means it will need to take a blowout move to the north in order to change the mind of the monthly.

My bias is there will be no close inside the cloud, and that is will contain. The upper SD channel line is running under the cloud, which is giving additional evidence that the whole eastward move is going to break out of its funk heading south.

If the SD channel is lying, and we get a closer inside the cloud, then we head to 78.59.

Let me add that everything you noted is correct. All I'm really doing is adding my perspective to your views.

BTW, you also duly noted the TK cross under the cloud which is weak.

Mr paul, on the 4-hour chart the pair has broken above the cloud, on my observation it has cleard some tight area of 76.77 which was acting as a strong resistance, the stochastic has yet to be overbought, I personally went long at 76.80 on the basis of the 4 hour chart and my take profit is set at the bottom of the daily cloud at 77.58, the minimum it should hit is 77.32 if not the bottom of the daily cloud! Secondly here is the daily chart ! On the daily chart the chikou span crosses the tenken sen from below indicating a "BUY" but yes it happened below the kimo cloud so a weak signal (a breakout could be possible on the above of the daily cloud) but the overall daily seems to be bearish as pairs remains under pressure so it could hit the bottom cloud at 77.58 and then go all the way back down most probably east like you said and then go inside the cloud which means neutral! but I have my fingers crossed on that, I hope that it breaks above the cloud soon so that i cold enter my long position that I have been waiting for! My tp should be hit this week!77.58 - 77.32) but I'll be waiting to see the next move of this pair, what do you think ??????
! I have also observed that it has touched a record low breaking the lowest record of 16th march 2011, I trade on the basis of the 4 hour I look for 3-4 candlestick profits, I like quick rejections ! BTW imageshack is not working , I will post the picture by phoctobucket

 

[4xpipcounter]

Nandamad, I have been presenting my views on Nifty at NIFTY 50 future TRENDS. The conversations there have been quite lively.

The others I will get to, hopefully within the next 24 hours.

Sir Paul,

waiting for mothly forecasts on nifty, sbi, reliance,infosys

regards
nanda

 

[4xpipcounter]

Usd/inr

October monthlies:

USD/INR 53.51 51.45 50.21 47.81 46.64 -44.43

The move south that was evidenced by last week is only the beginning of the correction. The weekly kijun at 46.82 is on the radar, and the cloud top at 45.77 should be containment. After that the next leg on the move north should begin. There is still strong momentum on the monthly which should take the pair to 52.70.