Weekly Review--082811
EUR/USD: This week the rally that ended last week should continue , but be contained by the WR1 1.4543, if not before that. After that small part of the rally has concluded, then there should be a correction that could have a strong leg on it. Regardless, look for correction to be no lower than the WS2 at 1.4400, if not the hourly TK combo at 1.4413.
The WR1 Held very nicely as the peak was 1.4546. I missed it on the dip. Once the peak was hit, the pair never stopped going south as the dip was 1.4182
USD/JPY: All this is needed for last weeks dip at 76.44 to be broken to send this pair plummeting to the WS2 at 75.96. That needs to contain, or we got a monster on our hands. The high 74.00s could get hit in a hurry.
This pair was in a tight squeeze all week, as the pair went due east. It was the tightest week in a long time as the high-low spread was 77.23-76.40. I went to my history that goes back to 1978, which covers 1,757 weeks. This was the 5th lowest week in terms of weekly range. If youre interested the average weekly range for this pair is 293.
GBP/USD: Last weeks strong finish may have signaled 1.6207 is the dip for a long time. The finish, however, was stopped dead in its tracks at the bottom of the 4-hour cloud. It could require some correcting to start the week, which would be contained by the WS1 at 1.6261. We could continue the trip north and get a spike to the top of the hourly cloud at 1.6395, and then it would to a trip southeast. Overall, this week looks bullish. We should get a kick to the WR2 at 1.6562, and even beyond.
This pair barely made it in the 4-hour cloud and peaked 1.6432. Afterward, it was straight south as the dip was contained by the WS2 (1.6161), even though the dip was 1.6129
USD/CHF: There is going to be very strong R starting at the WR2 at .8242, then the weekly kijun at .8265, and the daily cloud bottom at .8305. The WS2 at .7888 marks a cluster event. If that is broken then the correction has been officialized. With the strong move on Friday break the 9-day trip due east the favorable scenario could be a move to the weekly kijun. The correction should take us to the daily kijun at .7656.
My software plotted my WR1 at .8238 and the peak was .8239. Anyway, close enough to my WR1. The WS2 was taken out with no effort and we hit the WS3 (.7735) as price spiked to .7710 during NFP.
EUR/CHF: Strong reversals implications are more imminent than the USD/CHF, and like the USD/CHF, it is clear we are in the longer term UP. The bottom of the daily cloud is 1.1767, and there is some explosive potential in this reversal, because it also marks the peak of the SD channel. For that TF. If it contains, then the WS2 at 1.1427 is on the radar for the week. The entire correction could end up at the daily kijun at 1.0977.
The pair spiked into the cloud all the way to 1.1969 before the reversal took off to the daily kijun (1.1018) as the dip was 1.1000.
AUD/USD: After lasts weeks blitz to the upside the outlook is simple. It ended the week at the weekly TL. It has to hold. Also the recent peak of 1.0600 is solid R. If this area is broken, then we are on our way to challenge the all-time peak at 1.1078. A corrective process should start the week. Watch for reaction at the WS1 at 1.0511, even allowing for a spike to 1.0486. A thrust below that point, then we are back in the DOWN.
The pair did break above the level as it raced to the peak at 1.0763. The week ended above the 1.0600 level at 1.0635.
USD/CAD: I could be wrong, but I dont see much room for a corrective move in the recent reversal. The WR1 is .9858. On the downside, the daily kijun at .9707 should contain. If we make it there this week, then we could have a spike to the WS3 at .9689.
I was right on that. The pair only backed up one pip to start the week, then headed to the dip at .9723
NZD/USD: Similar to the AUD/USD, current level needs to contain. The weekly tenken is .8400, and if there is a convincing break. Then we are back to challenge the all-time high at .8839. The UP 4-hour TL at .8299 will be a strong decision point. If broken, then we should safely back in the DOWN.
There was a 9-pip pullback before the .8400 level was taken out like it did not exist, as the pair raced to the peak at .8569. It finished above the mark at .8435.
EUR/GBP: If we get a strong break through the weekly tenken at .8861, then the DOWN is over. If this area does contain, we could get back to the WS3 at .8682 in a hurry.
This pair was flirting around near the top as it finally peaked at .8883, then took off down the hill, as the dip was .8745. It got a late start on the trip south as it took until Wednesday to peak.
EUR/JPY: The recent up move still appears to have a ways to go, but still only looks corrective. There is a very strong cluster event at 112.86, and if we get there this week, that will be it. It would spin this pair back around and send it back on its southern journey. Ideal containment on the downside would be the WS1 at 110.66. If needed, then the WS2 110.20 will be waiting.
This pair hit the peak at 111.92 at the beginning of NY on Monday, and then the southern adventure was on as the dip was 108.84
GBP/JPY: This pair has been having a struggle with a very steep weekly TL, currently at 127.52. This is a tough pair to get a handle on this week. The latter mentioned point is key to the upside. All weekly levels are major points. If the WR2 at 126.97 is broken, then we get a strong move the rest of the way to 127.52. The WR1 at 126.18 is a cluster event that could contain, or could also result in a strong move through it. The south looks more vulnerable, but the WS2 at 123.83 needs to contain.
The WR1 was taken out by a spike to 126.55. The reversal dipped to just above the WS2 at 124.08.
EUR/USD: This week the rally that ended last week should continue , but be contained by the WR1 1.4543, if not before that. After that small part of the rally has concluded, then there should be a correction that could have a strong leg on it. Regardless, look for correction to be no lower than the WS2 at 1.4400, if not the hourly TK combo at 1.4413.
The WR1 Held very nicely as the peak was 1.4546. I missed it on the dip. Once the peak was hit, the pair never stopped going south as the dip was 1.4182
USD/JPY: All this is needed for last weeks dip at 76.44 to be broken to send this pair plummeting to the WS2 at 75.96. That needs to contain, or we got a monster on our hands. The high 74.00s could get hit in a hurry.
This pair was in a tight squeeze all week, as the pair went due east. It was the tightest week in a long time as the high-low spread was 77.23-76.40. I went to my history that goes back to 1978, which covers 1,757 weeks. This was the 5th lowest week in terms of weekly range. If youre interested the average weekly range for this pair is 293.
GBP/USD: Last weeks strong finish may have signaled 1.6207 is the dip for a long time. The finish, however, was stopped dead in its tracks at the bottom of the 4-hour cloud. It could require some correcting to start the week, which would be contained by the WS1 at 1.6261. We could continue the trip north and get a spike to the top of the hourly cloud at 1.6395, and then it would to a trip southeast. Overall, this week looks bullish. We should get a kick to the WR2 at 1.6562, and even beyond.
This pair barely made it in the 4-hour cloud and peaked 1.6432. Afterward, it was straight south as the dip was contained by the WS2 (1.6161), even though the dip was 1.6129
USD/CHF: There is going to be very strong R starting at the WR2 at .8242, then the weekly kijun at .8265, and the daily cloud bottom at .8305. The WS2 at .7888 marks a cluster event. If that is broken then the correction has been officialized. With the strong move on Friday break the 9-day trip due east the favorable scenario could be a move to the weekly kijun. The correction should take us to the daily kijun at .7656.
My software plotted my WR1 at .8238 and the peak was .8239. Anyway, close enough to my WR1. The WS2 was taken out with no effort and we hit the WS3 (.7735) as price spiked to .7710 during NFP.
EUR/CHF: Strong reversals implications are more imminent than the USD/CHF, and like the USD/CHF, it is clear we are in the longer term UP. The bottom of the daily cloud is 1.1767, and there is some explosive potential in this reversal, because it also marks the peak of the SD channel. For that TF. If it contains, then the WS2 at 1.1427 is on the radar for the week. The entire correction could end up at the daily kijun at 1.0977.
The pair spiked into the cloud all the way to 1.1969 before the reversal took off to the daily kijun (1.1018) as the dip was 1.1000.
AUD/USD: After lasts weeks blitz to the upside the outlook is simple. It ended the week at the weekly TL. It has to hold. Also the recent peak of 1.0600 is solid R. If this area is broken, then we are on our way to challenge the all-time peak at 1.1078. A corrective process should start the week. Watch for reaction at the WS1 at 1.0511, even allowing for a spike to 1.0486. A thrust below that point, then we are back in the DOWN.
The pair did break above the level as it raced to the peak at 1.0763. The week ended above the 1.0600 level at 1.0635.
USD/CAD: I could be wrong, but I dont see much room for a corrective move in the recent reversal. The WR1 is .9858. On the downside, the daily kijun at .9707 should contain. If we make it there this week, then we could have a spike to the WS3 at .9689.
I was right on that. The pair only backed up one pip to start the week, then headed to the dip at .9723
NZD/USD: Similar to the AUD/USD, current level needs to contain. The weekly tenken is .8400, and if there is a convincing break. Then we are back to challenge the all-time high at .8839. The UP 4-hour TL at .8299 will be a strong decision point. If broken, then we should safely back in the DOWN.
There was a 9-pip pullback before the .8400 level was taken out like it did not exist, as the pair raced to the peak at .8569. It finished above the mark at .8435.
EUR/GBP: If we get a strong break through the weekly tenken at .8861, then the DOWN is over. If this area does contain, we could get back to the WS3 at .8682 in a hurry.
This pair was flirting around near the top as it finally peaked at .8883, then took off down the hill, as the dip was .8745. It got a late start on the trip south as it took until Wednesday to peak.
EUR/JPY: The recent up move still appears to have a ways to go, but still only looks corrective. There is a very strong cluster event at 112.86, and if we get there this week, that will be it. It would spin this pair back around and send it back on its southern journey. Ideal containment on the downside would be the WS1 at 110.66. If needed, then the WS2 110.20 will be waiting.
This pair hit the peak at 111.92 at the beginning of NY on Monday, and then the southern adventure was on as the dip was 108.84
GBP/JPY: This pair has been having a struggle with a very steep weekly TL, currently at 127.52. This is a tough pair to get a handle on this week. The latter mentioned point is key to the upside. All weekly levels are major points. If the WR2 at 126.97 is broken, then we get a strong move the rest of the way to 127.52. The WR1 at 126.18 is a cluster event that could contain, or could also result in a strong move through it. The south looks more vulnerable, but the WS2 at 123.83 needs to contain.
The WR1 was taken out by a spike to 126.55. The reversal dipped to just above the WS2 at 124.08.
