Stocks for the long and short term portfolio

[jamit_05]

Mate,
Excellent thread for new investor like me yet to make the first trade...

Would you recommend MARICO for the long term..

What would your recommended buy price for HUL and ITC...

any other good stocks you can think about in the fmcg sector

Hi aj,

All three companies are good! Great choices.

But, this is common knowledge. And I am here to play an additional edge, which is a special advantage, which other investors won't have. What is that edge going to be?

It is price!

When good stocks become cheap we consider purchase. And when they are expensive, very expensive... we consider sale.

With that logic, although these companies are so very good, now might be a good time to take little profits in these companies if you are holding them... and circulate this cash into good companies that are cheap... like Bhel, Eil, Graphite.

And endlessly repeat the cycle... till the circle of life comes to a full stop

In short, these are good companies but from a long term investors perspective they are not to be purchased now.

 

[jamit_05]

image hosting picasa

What about this ?
Is it okay to invest here based on this wolfe wave ?

I suppose you want to buy and hold for a few weeks.

Well, it looks like it is headed down and Rs.200 would be a proper place to take a chance for trading.

But at CMP, it may get support due to the possibility of the index making a sharp u-turn next week.

Another big negative is that, the sector is a major underperformer, so any bad wind will break supports quickly. Be wary.

 

[jamit_05]

A worthy proposition to make money sensibly.

Just read in the newspaper that Hotels and Casinos in Goa are getting record revenues as overseas-travel has become expensive due to the weakening of the Re.

I one believes that this trend of weakening Re will continue in the future, then which companies are positioned to benefit the most? Which companies fulfill the following criteria:

1) Have a good management.
2) Long established, hence have the culture.
3) Have deep pockets to survive any further down-side in the business.
4) Have the diversification to generate consistent volumes in revenue.
5) Importantly, have a brand name.


Will post my answer... and will soon buy the shares too.

 

[gmt900]

Re: A worthy proposition to make money sensibly.

Just read in the newspaper that Hotels and Casinos in Goa are getting record revenues as overseas-travel has become expensive due to the weakening of the Re.

I one believes that this trend of weakening Re will continue in the future, then which companies are positioned to benefit the most? Which companies fulfill the following criteria:

1) Have a good management.
2) Long established, hence have the culture.
3) Have deep pockets to survive any further down-side in the business.
4) Have the diversification to generate consistent volumes in revenue.
5) Importantly, have a brand name.


Will post my answer... and will soon buy the shares too.

Just one question.
What is the time frame we are talking about? I mean, are we expecting the Re to continue depreciate for months and years ? With the dynamics of world economy changing , can we draw definite conclusion for a long term investment?

 

[jamit_05]

Re: A worthy proposition to make money sensibly.

Just one question.
What is the time frame we are talking about? I mean, are we expecting the Re to continue depreciate for months and years ? With the dynamics of world economy changing , can we draw definite conclusion for a long term investment?

It all depends on the company you select. Is the company positioned to capture the upcycle, if any? Is the company capable of surviving more downside? Does the management care for its share price... or is it busy diluting shares? Does the Co. have good and consistent Operating Profits, which reflects that the business is good....

First, seek a quality business with a very good price... then wait for the up-cycle. Folks may speculate all they want about when the upcycle will come... but the smarter ones are those who end up making money of it!

It is very tough to correctly predict the time-frame. But, yes it is a matter of logic to ascertain whether the business is good.

 

[Mr.G]

I have noticed that people pay for data about companies. Why is that? eg, 10Y financials and other financial info like raw material, employee cost details, etc.

 

[jamit_05]

I have noticed that people pay for data about companies. Why is that? eg, 10Y financials and other financial info like raw material, employee cost details, etc.

Yes, it is a serious business.

10Y ARs of all companies would cost around 15K.

 

[Mr.G]

Yes, it is a serious business.

10Y ARs of all companies would cost around 15K.

Why?! I never ever used these services. Why do people pay 15K for something you can get for free?

As a shareholder you are legally entitled to all information you desire about your company that is publicly released. You can even request information that is not released in periodic reports, as long as the management thinks it is not detrimental to the health of your company. Just email your company's investor relations desk and give them the required information with your request. They will respond with your request. I URGE EVERYONE NOT TO FALL INTO THIS DATA BUYING FRAUDS.

 

[jamit_05]

We, a group of investor friends/folks, were having a discussion which revolved around whether current situation is apt for investment.

The argument in favour was that Banking, Cap Goods, Metals and other sectors have corrected well and deep enough. And hence one can put his money and expect to get good value in the coming years. (Incidentally, RJ made a similar commentary on ET)

However, this opportunity means different things to diff people. For ex. if you already have a strong base of major investment which has already done well... then you can very well go ahead and invest another additional 25% odd percent now... or shuffle your portfolio to an extend.

But, if you do not have any investment as yet... and you are sitting on bulk cash waiting to deploy, then does it make sense to take the plunge at Nifty 5600? (See, how the outlook changes) My view is No!


Reason:

1) The sectors that you will be putting your bulk money into are in a deep recession and a turn-around is not in sight. Banking, Engn and PSEs are crashing for real reasons. There is more pain to come.

2) These sectors may have corrected enough, but are expected to sharply correct if Nifty breaks 5400... and if Nifty rises back to 6100 then these under-performing sectors' stocks' prices won't gain as much... instead Pharma, IT and FMCG will gain.

Sure, one could want to invest in Pharma, but these companies are not cheap like Banking is.

Just my views. Investing in almost any company will be a very good idea once Nifty goes below 5000!

 

[Mr.G]

We, a group of investor friends/folks, were having a discussion which revolved around whether current situation is apt for investment.

The argument in favour was that Banking, Cap Goods, Metals and other sectors have corrected well and deep enough. And hence one can put his money and expect to get good value in the coming years. (Incidentally, RJ made a similar commentary on ET)

However, this opportunity means different things to diff people. For ex. if you already have a strong base of major investment which has already done well... then you can very well go ahead and invest another additional 25% odd percent now... or shuffle your portfolio to an extend.

But, if you do not have any investment as yet... and you are sitting on bulk cash waiting to deploy, then does it make sense to take the plunge at Nifty 5600? (See, how the outlook changes) My view is No!


Reason:

1) The sectors that you will be putting your bulk money into are in a deep recession and a turn-around is not in sight. Banking, Engn and PSEs are crashing for real reasons. There is more pain to come.

2) These sectors may have corrected enough, but are expected to sharply correct if Nifty breaks 5400... and if Nifty rises back to 6100 then these under-performing sectors' stocks' prices won't gain as much... instead Pharma, IT and FMCG will gain.

Sure, one could want to invest in Pharma, but these companies are not cheap like Banking is.

Just my views. Investing in almost any company will be a very good idea once Nifty goes below 5000!

http://www.dividendgrowthinvestor.com/2013/08/should-i-buy-dividend-stocks-now-or.html (This article gives a very good view why I am always fully invested. If I get a very good opportunity I just sell my bonds and buy more shares from that money, varna dividend income is always constant, I get dividends two times a year.)