Stocks for the long and short term portfolio

[jamit_05]

Amit - will the nifty go sub 52 week low levels?? If yes, wen r u expecting it to happen? Question out of curiosity

It does not help us in anyway, even if we had the answer to "When it will happen?". And if anybody in this whole wide world, including the topmost dignitaries to the run of the mill analyst, claims to know the answer is lying.

What does help us, is to have a phantom timeline, say 6 months in mind, and have cash ready, set aside in liquid debt fund to be deployed when Bhel hits 62.

 

[jamit_05]

Read somewhere about this.. This company has made major movements in the recent past.. Has reduced their debt considerably n considering to reduce further.. Selling out all of their overseas business n has stopped acquiring business outside India as it s not making good profits n killing their Indian business n profits as well.. Have made their first profit of 32 cr in the Q2'13 after making 5 consecutive quarterly losses.. I believe Mr. Singh has shown better interest in d Indian arm now.. Yes, I'm talking abt fortis health care..

Amit - What's your view on this? Is it better to go for a long ride on this.. than the giant Apollo?

I see growth in this industry. But, the problem is they have to spend A LOT. Huge estate, 5-Star amenities, equipment etc. This is evident from the numbers. Its Long Term Debt has increased, took a big jump from 930 Cr in FY11 to 3600 Cr in FY12. This is the first big red flag for me.

Its profitability has not increased in that proportion. Hence, it has a very very poor Interest Coverage Ratio of 1.4 (around about 10 plus is sign of stability)

Now, I here that these hospitals are having trouble extracting timely payments from Insurance Cos. Its debtor days are on the rise.

I think Fortis is dangerously placed. As for turnaround, it does not happen in a year or so. It takes time. Very few companies can pull it off too.

 

[jamit_05]

Stockman,

This is the very reason why I tend to not take liking to "newer" companies, as most of them cannot do business correctly. They do not feel the responsibility of people's money, my money. They do business to pomp their egos, have big marriages, large homes and helicopters. They don't care about my money.

Management of the establish companies probably also do the same (Like Ambani, Crompton Greaves) but atleast they have the income structure. They do it without damaging the precious RoA and FCF.

 

[shreeux]

Stockman,

This is the very reason why I tend to not take liking to "newer" companies, as most of them cannot do business correctly. They do not feel the responsibility of people's money, my money. They do business to pomp their egos, have big marriages, large homes and helicopters. They don't care about my money.

Management of the establish companies probably also do the same (Like Ambani, Crompton Greaves) but atleast they have the income structure. They do it without damaging the precious RoA and FCF.

Jamit_05,

PFIZER and WYETH announced Interim Dividend on 5th Dec'13--- Rs 360/- and 145/-Per Share respectively...If i bought both scripts..can i get dividend....what's your suggestion....

http://goo.gl/I2hqdt

http://goo.gl/6lmcpo

 

[Mr.G]

Jamit_05,

PFIZER and WYETH announced Interim Dividend on 5th Dec'13--- Rs 360/- and 145/-Per Share respectively...If i bought both scripts..can i get dividend....what's your suggestion....

http://goo.gl/I2hqdt

http://goo.gl/6lmcpo

shree you are subscribed to my blog, I thought you might have read the dividend capture strategy you are trying to use, does not work.

The stock will fall by the amount of dividend paid. You will gain the dividend but incur paper loss on your holdings.

 

[shreeux]

shree you are subscribed to my blog, I thought you might have read the dividend capture strategy you are trying to use, does not work.

The stock will fall by the amount of dividend paid. You will gain the dividend but incur paper loss on your holdings.

Ok, I read your article....this sector was good (there is no sucide mission)...after getting the dividend, the same amount fallen the market, on that time the equal or double the quantity buy on dip and hold...till get the profit...thats why i am asking....

Your suggestion please...thank you...

 

[Mr.G]

Ok, I read your article....this sector was good (there is no sucide mission)...after getting the dividend, the same amount fallen the market, on that time the equal or double the quantity buy on dip and hold...till get the profit...thats why i am asking....

Your suggestion please...thank you...

As I amit and einstein have pointed out on NUMEROUS occasions, getting a good company is half the job! the other job is getting at a good price.

Buy doing what you are suggesting you will be merely speculating. Buy the firms ONLY if you think they are trading at good valuation and that you want them for long term.

Be careful, even if you want to focus on dividends like I do, then you will still have to buy the stock at good valuation. I warn you against it as I am a conservative analyst and never want anyone to lose money. Look for a better buy.

 

[poolspan99]

To give you a point of reference, Nifty is near its all time high. Hence, stocks are expected to be priced on the higher side.

Bargain hunting should start when Nifty touches 52-W lows.

Off to bank to open a RD Waiting fingers crossed..

 

[shreeux]

As I amit and einstein have pointed out on NUMEROUS occasions, getting a good company is half the job! the other job is getting at a good price.

Buy doing what you are suggesting you will be merely speculating. Buy the firms ONLY if you think they are trading at good valuation and that you want them for long term.

Be careful, even if you want to focus on dividends like I do, then you will still have to buy the stock at good valuation. I warn you against it as I am a conservative analyst and never want anyone to lose money. Look for a better buy.

Ok, thanks for suggestions....lets wait if any correction in between on before 05-Dec'13..

 

[oilman5]

Ok, what level to start to accumulate...? and how to long hold.....?

..........................................................................................
around 155 - i have started accumulation. As oil sector will put under exploration ,the specialist
EIL will be called to arrange bid to restructure to give guidelines for exploration,as well as third party inspection. Since they have monopoly with blessings of Govt of India, their bottomline will improve. So i am picking 5000 to hold - its investment.:clap:
my understanding risk is less. Though it can go down, as well as go easily to target of 220-240