Stocks for the long and short term portfolio

[jamit_05]

If someone has Auto Sector stocks in his portfolio, he should choose to exit.

One by one all the chips are falling.

First the Metal and Cap Goods sector collapsed. Then came Banking. And the latest crack in the ice is seen in the Auto sector. Once, super hot MnM famed for its SuVs is now seeing a double top on the weekly chart.

Once 800 breaks, it is all downhill from there. Surely, no one can save the auto, just like realty couldn't be saved.

Hero has clearly drawn the line for its top. It is worth a look only near 800, yes 50% lower. The reason being very clear. The sector is out of fashion. There is no sensible reason why money will flow into auto... sales are declining.

There is so much competition, with Maruti, MnM, Hyundai, Tata, Honda, Renault, Ford, fighting for the same pie. The competition will eat each other up!

Tata Motors has made its intentions very clear... It has made a
1. a double top
2. ascending triangle pattern

that too on the monthly charts, now that is a wow! Knowing the tendency of the auto sector to sharply correct by as much as 70%, it is best to stay away.

And the worst case is Ashok Leyland. It is share price seems to have gathered the determination to nose dive into oblivion...

There is not one reason to have Metals, Cap Goods, Auto, Realty stocks.

 

[jamit_05]

This is to emphasize the importance of buying a stock at the right price. It is not enough that the company is a good one.

Case in point: Hindzinc.

Fundamentally, it has one of the best ratios. Indisputably. But, its chart is crying pain. It has made a Triple Top on the monthly chart. Moreover, it has taken up some ugly downward momentum.

Like metal stocks, would mining follow too... well, NMDC, Sesa, sterlite have.

It is way too overpriced for the industry.

 

[jamit_05]

ACC

A very good stock but expensive, which is the case with very many good stocks. But, with realty and infra doing very poorly there is hope.

Below 1050, ACC is bearish. When it gets started, ACC tends to be strongly bearish. It tends to correct as much as 70%. So, cements are out for a long time.

 

[victory]

Hi Jamit,

Will consolidate list of stocks that was recommended from the beginner and would gather your views at present.

I see that lot of stocks have reached your recommended level.

Any update on Portfolio diversification.

Taking into account of 10L in trading account would appreciate your input on diversification

Thanks

 

[jamit_05]

Hi Jamit,

Will consolidate list of stocks that was recommended from the beginner and would gather your views at present.

I see that lot of stocks have reached your recommended level.

Any update on Portfolio diversification.

Taking into account of 10L in trading account would appreciate your input on diversification

Thanks

Diversification is the key word. I am glad you believe in it.

From my on-going slug-out in Trading, I have learned that one good way to succeed in the markets is to follow this:

"Plan the trade..... and Trade the plan"

With that said, I intend to diverse not only in the companies but also in price and economic scenarios.

Only last night I made a list of 57 odd companies that deserve my money. I will spend the next few weeks deciding the right prices (note the plural) to deploy. And before I do that, I will list out the exact Ceiling of investment in each Company. Hence, diversifying in sectors, companies and price.

As you will note, I do not intend to include stocks that are "too light" to be easily blown away by the wind.

rgds.

 

[victory]

Awaiting the same...will you very useful ..

 

[jamit_05]

Awaiting the same...will you very useful ..

I know for sure that I do not have the capability to say for sure which company/s will whether all the storms. Some people tend to think it and successfully convince other people also. Only recently the top independent research firm in India that has atleast 7 guys analysing Annual and quarterly reports, gave a buy cal on PowerGrid.

Post, I met with them and strongly opposed their approach, which is pseudo-value investing. They took it well. I respect that.

Today, powergrid is down 15% !!

Point is, nobody can say anything for sure. Therefore, it is most important to

1. Diversify in the few important aspects and
2. Have a very clear understanding about the price you enter at.

 

[jamit_05]

Something is fundamentally wrong. Most PSEs are losing major ground. These are solid companies that make the backbone of the nation, not a trivial matter:

1. Ongc
2. NTPC
3. Powergrid
4. Bhel
5. Concor
6. Sail
7. EiL
8. Coal India
9. Banks, esp small ones

All are getting beaten up. Imaging what will happen if Nifty touches 4500!
Nifty 4500 is not all that far, it is only 2011 low! Can't an emerging economy touch a two year low... yes easily, esp in such volatile times with election next year, Rs beating, slugging economy. Easily, I think.

 

[jshah9]

Hi Jamit-
I have been regularly following your thread. Infact i log in to read mainly your post as I find them very helpful. I have invested heavily in companies like BHEL, Tata Steel, SAIL and it is only after reading your post i have stopped buying more and waiting for them to hit the lows you have predicted. I am waiting for your list. Thanks in advance.

 

[victory]

1. Diversify in the few important aspects and
2. Have a very clear understanding about the price you enter at.[/QUOTE]


List of 57 companies wrt to both points explained will be helpful to take our position - and I smell the price would be very deep by your explanation - ready to wait for the same to bag at a good price