Stocks To Keep A Close Eye On
- Thread starter SavantGarde
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I agree with u aditya. Plus a stronger USD means good for IT as it means more revenue in Indian Rupees. IT fell when INR went up compared to USD as the general outlook is that they need to protect their revenue by hedging which is costly. So in short IT shud go up if USD rises and vice versa.
Plus Today China was down Hong Kong was down and even Japan was down but our market consistently came out from the down triggers and banking index closed with slight gain.
There has been nothing in the market to suggest that we fundamentally expect a fall. Maybe its the over hype created in TVs and now with analysts coming out and saying that market is not going to go up and will trade between 4900-4970 levels make me feel even more skeptical about these levels and feel that the market will show an up move pretty soon. According to Fibonacci levels the retracement at 50% occurs at 4995 and for the past two days we haven't hit that level which shows that there is strong buying at low 5000 levels which drags the index back to 5050 level. Economically we have the most sound economic growth and not at the cost of credit expansion. Our growth in 2007 was around 9% but inflation was considerably high still we had an incredible bull run.
Even now taking into account inflation our real interest rates are much much higher than any of these so called developed economies which even with so much stimulus have a negative real interest rate as growth is far below the inflation level. I m ultra optimistic like aditya and hope that market moves up. But if not I would accept my mistake and look for possible flaws in my strategies.
Plus Today China was down Hong Kong was down and even Japan was down but our market consistently came out from the down triggers and banking index closed with slight gain.
There has been nothing in the market to suggest that we fundamentally expect a fall. Maybe its the over hype created in TVs and now with analysts coming out and saying that market is not going to go up and will trade between 4900-4970 levels make me feel even more skeptical about these levels and feel that the market will show an up move pretty soon. According to Fibonacci levels the retracement at 50% occurs at 4995 and for the past two days we haven't hit that level which shows that there is strong buying at low 5000 levels which drags the index back to 5050 level. Economically we have the most sound economic growth and not at the cost of credit expansion. Our growth in 2007 was around 9% but inflation was considerably high still we had an incredible bull run.
Even now taking into account inflation our real interest rates are much much higher than any of these so called developed economies which even with so much stimulus have a negative real interest rate as growth is far below the inflation level. I m ultra optimistic like aditya and hope that market moves up. But if not I would accept my mistake and look for possible flaws in my strategies.
"Weaker INR will have a negative impact on already rising inflation. FII will be (if you don't consider them already) willing to invest in USD than in Indian stock markets (atleast for shorter span). The increase in USD will lead to imports of Crude Oil, edible oil, pulses & capital goods to becomes even more expensive."
Vikas I don't quite agree with you on this point a stronger USD means a better opportunity for FIIs to invest in our market as when they covert USD to INR they get more money to invest plus when our market does well in the future and INR rises and they liquidate their position they get more USDs so two way return. Plus the return in our market. I think that would make more sense and also if the market will fall the considerable gain in INR in the coming weeks will compensate for the fall as the amount they invest is huge and it can easily lead to an increase of 1-2% in INRvsUSD.
Vikas I don't quite agree with you on this point a stronger USD means a better opportunity for FIIs to invest in our market as when they covert USD to INR they get more money to invest plus when our market does well in the future and INR rises and they liquidate their position they get more USDs so two way return. Plus the return in our market. I think that would make more sense and also if the market will fall the considerable gain in INR in the coming weeks will compensate for the fall as the amount they invest is huge and it can easily lead to an increase of 1-2% in INRvsUSD.
Dear findvikas,
Let me step back for a minute first tender my apologizes if you got the context wrong.
I assume you subscribe EMH, in varying degree. For being long bull or short bear you will need to subscribe to some kind of economic school of thought along with risk associated with that school.
Being an EMH you will appreciate that fact that regressive association between current stock market and economics, at best is marriage of convenience which is near future would be associated with some other specific event, which might have no resemblance to economics per se.
Rest the debate and discussion is very long, not suited for forum and can best we done with chilled beer, sometime in summer.
The long and short of above statement is we are TA let's be TA and leave the macroeconomics completely out of picture
Let me step back for a minute first tender my apologizes if you got the context wrong.
I assume you subscribe EMH, in varying degree. For being long bull or short bear you will need to subscribe to some kind of economic school of thought along with risk associated with that school.
Being an EMH you will appreciate that fact that regressive association between current stock market and economics, at best is marriage of convenience which is near future would be associated with some other specific event, which might have no resemblance to economics per se.
Rest the debate and discussion is very long, not suited for forum and can best we done with chilled beer, sometime in summer.
The long and short of above statement is we are TA let's be TA and leave the macroeconomics completely out of picture
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