Stocks To Keep A Close Eye On
- Thread starter SavantGarde
- Start date
- Tags afl amibroker
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Hi All,
Wishing all of you a happy and succesful new year!
A good way to start the new year is this article below:
http://www.annemarietrades.com/2010/01/02/starting-2010-with-the-truth-about-trading/
Cheers,
Scorpio
Wishing all of you a happy and succesful new year!
A good way to start the new year is this article below:
http://www.annemarietrades.com/2010/01/02/starting-2010-with-the-truth-about-trading/
Cheers,
Scorpio
Hi
Just a query on Money management and Risk Return in this system. In Uma's file there are about 326 entries as per the system and general rules are one should have capital of Rs 20K per entry. But if I sum up the total P/L (in sheet ALL) it comes to about Rs 51000 to date, which is about a 9% return on actual capital deployed which is around 6lakhs. But if one had to follow this exactly then capital in hand should be about 20000*326 or about 64 lakhs out of which 6 lakhs has been deployed till date
Am i missing somethings here??
as in wouldnt keeping the initial capital of 64 lakhs in bank deposit yield more (in 6 months or say a year).....and be safer....??? or is this the reality of what one should expect in swing trading and this works out better in the long term???
views on the same would be appreciated.
ps this is not to to malign the system in anyway as Savant himself knows how much I appreciate him and his work and what an inspiration he has been to me and for that i always thank him
Just a query on Money management and Risk Return in this system. In Uma's file there are about 326 entries as per the system and general rules are one should have capital of Rs 20K per entry. But if I sum up the total P/L (in sheet ALL) it comes to about Rs 51000 to date, which is about a 9% return on actual capital deployed which is around 6lakhs. But if one had to follow this exactly then capital in hand should be about 20000*326 or about 64 lakhs out of which 6 lakhs has been deployed till date
Am i missing somethings here??
as in wouldnt keeping the initial capital of 64 lakhs in bank deposit yield more (in 6 months or say a year).....and be safer....??? or is this the reality of what one should expect in swing trading and this works out better in the long term???views on the same would be appreciated.
ps this is not to to malign the system in anyway as Savant himself knows how much I appreciate him and his work and what an inspiration he has been to me and for that i always thank him
offtopic - apology
anant sir
are you aware of an alternate to using amibroker..i have had a very bad time in setting up amibroker even after going through amibroker section
i wonder if i am looking something similar to what savant sir uses..i believe he doesn' t uses amibroker or metastock..but i know you do use amibroker for signals
so i am desperatly looking for something which will save me from looking signals MANUALLY through out the day in trade tiger charts
regards
rishi
anant sir
are you aware of an alternate to using amibroker..i have had a very bad time in setting up amibroker even after going through amibroker section
i wonder if i am looking something similar to what savant sir uses..i believe he doesn' t uses amibroker or metastock..but i know you do use amibroker for signals
so i am desperatly looking for something which will save me from looking signals MANUALLY through out the day in trade tiger charts
regards
rishi
Last edited:
SEL Manufacturing
Based on Book Value
Current Book Value = 183.8
Current market Price = 85
Current Market Price/Book Value = .46
Expected Market Price to book value = 1 2
Valuation if SEL attains the expected ratio: 183.88 to 367.6
Based on PE Ratio
FY09 Revenue = Rs. 606 Cr
Cumulative Aggregate Growth Rate since last 4 years = 74%
Projected FY10 & FY11 Figures
FY10 Revenue = 1055 Cr
FY11 Revenue = 1836 Cr
Current TTM EPS based on FY09 Revenue Rs. 32
Expected EPS for FY10 = 55.7
Expected EPS for FY11 = 97
Current TTM PE Ratio = 2.65
Expected FY10 PE Ratio = 1.52
Expected FY11 PE Ratio = .87
Appropriate PE Ratio for SEL
Current PE for similar textile sector firms is around 10. This itself is a low PE considering India in among the top two textile export countries next only to China
US Consumer market is picking up again in 2010 on the back of huge stimulus package, directly benefitting the Indian firms exporting to US
The decline in rupee has further increased the earnings of exporters
A responsible management who has been able to show strong increase in revenues since the last many years
In light of these developments even a PE multiple of 10 looks paltry and a the right multiple should be around 15
Expected Price of SEL for FY10 based on PE multiple of 10 to 15 for FY09 = 557 to 835.5
Expected Price of SEL for FY11 based on PE multiple of 10 to 15 for FY09 = 970 to 1455
Price Target March 2010 = 550 to 850 (Returns of 650% to 1000%)
A 3 Months returns 6 to 10 times look a bit ambitious, but we have seen in the past during the rally from Mar 2009, how some undervalued companies having good value and good growth prospects having multiplied 20 times in less than a year.
Investors who do not buy now will be missing another rare Gem of an opportunity, which can give them multi bagger returns.
Disclaimer
I am not a stock guru, but a sound investor who looks for value because market has a way of rewarding value eventually.
I do have an investment in the above stock, so its performance would affect me also. This is to let you know I am not one of the analysts giving useless gyan like others on TV
I hope the stock will return 6 10 times in the next 6 months, however I will be satisfied with 3 4 times also, and will probably book profits
Each investor should invest at his own risk! However, as they say you get huge returns only if you take a bit of risk !!
Based on Book Value
Current Book Value = 183.8
Current market Price = 85
Current Market Price/Book Value = .46
Expected Market Price to book value = 1 2
Valuation if SEL attains the expected ratio: 183.88 to 367.6
Based on PE Ratio
FY09 Revenue = Rs. 606 Cr
Cumulative Aggregate Growth Rate since last 4 years = 74%
Projected FY10 & FY11 Figures
FY10 Revenue = 1055 Cr
FY11 Revenue = 1836 Cr
Current TTM EPS based on FY09 Revenue Rs. 32
Expected EPS for FY10 = 55.7
Expected EPS for FY11 = 97
Current TTM PE Ratio = 2.65
Expected FY10 PE Ratio = 1.52
Expected FY11 PE Ratio = .87
Appropriate PE Ratio for SEL
Current PE for similar textile sector firms is around 10. This itself is a low PE considering India in among the top two textile export countries next only to China
US Consumer market is picking up again in 2010 on the back of huge stimulus package, directly benefitting the Indian firms exporting to US
The decline in rupee has further increased the earnings of exporters
A responsible management who has been able to show strong increase in revenues since the last many years
In light of these developments even a PE multiple of 10 looks paltry and a the right multiple should be around 15
Expected Price of SEL for FY10 based on PE multiple of 10 to 15 for FY09 = 557 to 835.5
Expected Price of SEL for FY11 based on PE multiple of 10 to 15 for FY09 = 970 to 1455
Price Target March 2010 = 550 to 850 (Returns of 650% to 1000%)
A 3 Months returns 6 to 10 times look a bit ambitious, but we have seen in the past during the rally from Mar 2009, how some undervalued companies having good value and good growth prospects having multiplied 20 times in less than a year.
Investors who do not buy now will be missing another rare Gem of an opportunity, which can give them multi bagger returns.
Disclaimer
I am not a stock guru, but a sound investor who looks for value because market has a way of rewarding value eventually.
I do have an investment in the above stock, so its performance would affect me also. This is to let you know I am not one of the analysts giving useless gyan like others on TV
I hope the stock will return 6 10 times in the next 6 months, however I will be satisfied with 3 4 times also, and will probably book profits
Each investor should invest at his own risk! However, as they say you get huge returns only if you take a bit of risk !!
doston dow phat gaya hai :yahoo:
Dow 10,600.05 +172.00 +1.65%
Wall Street Off to Strong 2010 Start on ISM Data, Intel
U.S. stocks climbed on Monday, rallying in the first session of the new year, after data showed the manufacturing sector expanded for the fifth straight month and a brokerage upgrade of Intel helped lift semiconductor stocks.
________________________________++______________________________
Dow 10,600.05 +172.00 +1.65%
Wall Street Off to Strong 2010 Start on ISM Data, Intel
U.S. stocks climbed on Monday, rallying in the first session of the new year, after data showed the manufacturing sector expanded for the fifth straight month and a brokerage upgrade of Intel helped lift semiconductor stocks.
________________________________++______________________________
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