Stocks To Keep A Close Eye On
- Thread starter SavantGarde
- Start date
- Tags afl amibroker
- Status
HI Guys,
This is one article that can interest you , i posted it here to discuss on this and any opinions are welcome
How the S&P Responds to this Level Will Be a Huge "Tell"
Costas Bocelli
YESTERDAY MARKED THE TWO-YEAR ANNIVERSARY OF THE BULL MARKET.
The current run has seen the market nearly double, in one of the swiftest moves in history. You would have to go back to the 1950’s before you found the magnitude of gains that came this quickly.
So Happy Birthday, Bull Market! So far, over the past two-years, you've been able to put in a series of higher highs and higher lows along the way.
But in any cyclical or secular bull market trend, there will inevitably be pull backs along the way. In fact, we’ve already experienced several in the last two years. The most notable correction occurred last spring, and led to the eventual bailout of Greece.
In any case, after booking 100% gains during this rally, many investors are concerned that the next pull back is on the horizon. Then there are others who have been wary of the market and cautiously sitting in cash -- these folks have missed some of the bigger moves of the rally, and are now hoping for some type of a pull back so they can buy-in, as investor confidence has strengthened and the old wounds have begun to heal.
Since its recent high, the SPX has become more volatile, and the price action has been zig-zagging around the 20-day moving average level of 1320.
The volatile sideways action is winding up in a consolidation pattern, and will most likely pick a direction to break out, sooner rather than later.
The risks to the downside ...
With the market at such lofty levels, doubling in two years, it is priced close to perfection. The path to least resistance points to lower prices.
There are many potential catalysts that could send the market lower in the near term:
- The power struggle in Libya intensifies into a prolonged civil war, weighing heavy on the price of oil.
- The political unrest escalates in the other major oil producing nations in the Middle East such as Bahrain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Iran. Tomorrow could be an important day in Saudi Arabia, as protests have been called to demonstrate against the Kingdom.
- The Federal Reserve ends their multi-year ultra loose QE monetary policies. The $600 billion buying spree ends in the 2nd quarter.
- The European sovereign debt crisis intensifies and drags down another one of the struggling EU members such as Portugal. Currently, Portugal’s 10 year borrowing yield and credit default swaps are at record highs.
- A Congressional deadlock on approving the current 2011 budget is on a 3rd extension that expires a week from tomorrow, threatening a federal government shutdown.
If the SPX does pull back, 1275 will be a huge market tell
Pull backs are very healthy for a sustained and balanced bull market. The difference between a pull back and a more significant correction is the magnitude and duration.
The 1275 level should be the spot where the market will be forced to "show its hand". It could possibly be the pivot point that will confirm a short term pull back, or the start of at least an intermediate term correction.
Below is a 1 year daily chart on the SPX ...
( THE LINK IS PROVIDED AT http://common.tycoonresearch.com/assets/image/03102011_3-10-11_1.jpg)
The 1275 level represents a very important technical level, and it’s highlighted by the blue horizontal support line.
The yellow arrow points to the sharp sell off on January 28, which signified the apex of the Egyptian crisis and ensuing fall of President Mubarak. The SPX held and closed at 1275, which was a resistance and consolidation level in the earlier part of the month. The index rallied from that point forward, peaking at 1343 on February 18.
Going one step further, I overlaid Fibonacci retracement levels from the peak of 1343 to a trough level of 1040 that combines relevant bottoms made in May, June, July, and September of last year.
Fibonacci retracement levels are expressed as specific mathematical ratios derived from a sequence of numbers identified by the mathematician, Leonardo Fibonacci.
The ratios are useful in looking for specific support/resistance levels that may help in determining when price action is a pull back, correction, or reversal.
From the chart, the blue horizontal support line at 1275, which correlates with the low of January 28 (yellow arrow), is a significant Fibonacci retracement level (23.6% retracement). If the market does indeed pull back, that is a spot that should draw the line in the sand for the bulls and bring in some of that idle cash parked on the sidelines from the wary investors who have missed out.
A break below the 1275 level would finally reveal a major crack in the uptrend, and the market may attract the short sellers like sharks to chum.
Below the 1275 blue horizontal support line, as you can see, are three shaded boxes.
The light shade of pink takes you down to another major Fibonacci level -- or a 38.2% retracement level. That support area coincidentally correlates perfectly with the November top of 1227. Trading in the pink shaded box would see elevated levels of fear and volatility.
The light red and dark red boxes straddle the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. If the price action should slide through each of the shaded areas, volatility ratchets up. The fear index -- or VIX -- could easily jump above 30 in the light red area. Trading in the dark red shaded area could possibly test 40 or higher if the price action was swift enough.
No one knows for sure where the index is heading. But if it does pull back, watching the 1275 level may be very telling, and give you an edge on your next move to profit.
SO ANY OPINIONS ON THE WORLD MARKETS HAVING EFFECTS ON INDIAN MARKETS ARE WELCOME
This is one article that can interest you , i posted it here to discuss on this and any opinions are welcome
How the S&P Responds to this Level Will Be a Huge "Tell"
Costas Bocelli
YESTERDAY MARKED THE TWO-YEAR ANNIVERSARY OF THE BULL MARKET.
The current run has seen the market nearly double, in one of the swiftest moves in history. You would have to go back to the 1950’s before you found the magnitude of gains that came this quickly.
So Happy Birthday, Bull Market! So far, over the past two-years, you've been able to put in a series of higher highs and higher lows along the way.
But in any cyclical or secular bull market trend, there will inevitably be pull backs along the way. In fact, we’ve already experienced several in the last two years. The most notable correction occurred last spring, and led to the eventual bailout of Greece.
In any case, after booking 100% gains during this rally, many investors are concerned that the next pull back is on the horizon. Then there are others who have been wary of the market and cautiously sitting in cash -- these folks have missed some of the bigger moves of the rally, and are now hoping for some type of a pull back so they can buy-in, as investor confidence has strengthened and the old wounds have begun to heal.
Since its recent high, the SPX has become more volatile, and the price action has been zig-zagging around the 20-day moving average level of 1320.
The volatile sideways action is winding up in a consolidation pattern, and will most likely pick a direction to break out, sooner rather than later.
The risks to the downside ...
With the market at such lofty levels, doubling in two years, it is priced close to perfection. The path to least resistance points to lower prices.
There are many potential catalysts that could send the market lower in the near term:
- The power struggle in Libya intensifies into a prolonged civil war, weighing heavy on the price of oil.
- The political unrest escalates in the other major oil producing nations in the Middle East such as Bahrain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Iran. Tomorrow could be an important day in Saudi Arabia, as protests have been called to demonstrate against the Kingdom.
- The Federal Reserve ends their multi-year ultra loose QE monetary policies. The $600 billion buying spree ends in the 2nd quarter.
- The European sovereign debt crisis intensifies and drags down another one of the struggling EU members such as Portugal. Currently, Portugal’s 10 year borrowing yield and credit default swaps are at record highs.
- A Congressional deadlock on approving the current 2011 budget is on a 3rd extension that expires a week from tomorrow, threatening a federal government shutdown.
If the SPX does pull back, 1275 will be a huge market tell
Pull backs are very healthy for a sustained and balanced bull market. The difference between a pull back and a more significant correction is the magnitude and duration.
The 1275 level should be the spot where the market will be forced to "show its hand". It could possibly be the pivot point that will confirm a short term pull back, or the start of at least an intermediate term correction.
Below is a 1 year daily chart on the SPX ...
( THE LINK IS PROVIDED AT http://common.tycoonresearch.com/assets/image/03102011_3-10-11_1.jpg)
The 1275 level represents a very important technical level, and it’s highlighted by the blue horizontal support line.
The yellow arrow points to the sharp sell off on January 28, which signified the apex of the Egyptian crisis and ensuing fall of President Mubarak. The SPX held and closed at 1275, which was a resistance and consolidation level in the earlier part of the month. The index rallied from that point forward, peaking at 1343 on February 18.
Going one step further, I overlaid Fibonacci retracement levels from the peak of 1343 to a trough level of 1040 that combines relevant bottoms made in May, June, July, and September of last year.
Fibonacci retracement levels are expressed as specific mathematical ratios derived from a sequence of numbers identified by the mathematician, Leonardo Fibonacci.
The ratios are useful in looking for specific support/resistance levels that may help in determining when price action is a pull back, correction, or reversal.
From the chart, the blue horizontal support line at 1275, which correlates with the low of January 28 (yellow arrow), is a significant Fibonacci retracement level (23.6% retracement). If the market does indeed pull back, that is a spot that should draw the line in the sand for the bulls and bring in some of that idle cash parked on the sidelines from the wary investors who have missed out.
A break below the 1275 level would finally reveal a major crack in the uptrend, and the market may attract the short sellers like sharks to chum.
Below the 1275 blue horizontal support line, as you can see, are three shaded boxes.
The light shade of pink takes you down to another major Fibonacci level -- or a 38.2% retracement level. That support area coincidentally correlates perfectly with the November top of 1227. Trading in the pink shaded box would see elevated levels of fear and volatility.
The light red and dark red boxes straddle the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. If the price action should slide through each of the shaded areas, volatility ratchets up. The fear index -- or VIX -- could easily jump above 30 in the light red area. Trading in the dark red shaded area could possibly test 40 or higher if the price action was swift enough.
No one knows for sure where the index is heading. But if it does pull back, watching the 1275 level may be very telling, and give you an edge on your next move to profit.
SO ANY OPINIONS ON THE WORLD MARKETS HAVING EFFECTS ON INDIAN MARKETS ARE WELCOME
Last edited:
Hello friends,
This post is meant for savant sir anant sir and all senior members of this thread
I would like to know if its possible or not as we all know that this thread is meant for positional trading so my query is if someone like me want to go for long term investment
can i buy these stocks(predicted by anant sir) and ignore all stoploss warning and hold these for long term may be i year or more as i want to invest 10k for a period of 1 year or more but i want that money to grow say at least by 20% within span of 1 year if thats possible ?or can we expect a new thread dedicated to long term investment
and hope all is well for everybody
This post is meant for savant sir anant sir and all senior members of this thread
I would like to know if its possible or not as we all know that this thread is meant for positional trading so my query is if someone like me want to go for long term investment
can i buy these stocks(predicted by anant sir) and ignore all stoploss warning and hold these for long term may be i year or more as i want to invest 10k for a period of 1 year or more but i want that money to grow say at least by 20% within span of 1 year if thats possible ?or can we expect a new thread dedicated to long term investment
and hope all is well for everybody
Last edited:
Hi,
The triggers given in Chapter-II are not meant for a specific time period. You have to hold them till SL or Sell is triggered or the given tarhet is reached. Therefore, the exact appreciation in value is not predictable. If you have a specific time period and amount of profit in mind then you have to look for some other source.
-Anant
The triggers given in Chapter-II are not meant for a specific time period. You have to hold them till SL or Sell is triggered or the given tarhet is reached. Therefore, the exact appreciation in value is not predictable. If you have a specific time period and amount of profit in mind then you have to look for some other source.
-Anant
- Status
Similar threads
-
to keep record of stocks i will be following- Started by Gandhar.
- Replies: 5
-
-
-
-
Is it ok to buy Stocks keeping the current market scenarios in mind or should I wait
- Started by greg4u
- Replies: 10