System Implementation Exercise

[asnavale]

Hello friends,

MABIUTS-HB has generated the following signals based on EOD data of 13-12-2006.

---------
BUY:

BEL
DABUR
ELECON
HINDPETRO
MOSERBAER
SHIV-VANI
-----------------
SELL:

CREWBOS
PIONEEREMB
TELEDATAIN
---------

*****************
DISCLAIMER

THESE ARE NOT ANY RECOMMENDATIONS TO BUY OR SELL. THESE ARE SIGNALS GENERATED BY THE SYSTEM BEING TESTED UNDER SYSTEM IMPLEMENTATION EDUCATION EXCERCISE. ANYBODY ACTING ON THESE WILL BE SOLELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THEIR ACTIONS.

******************

 

[asnavale]

Hello rpc,

I have run your exploration and found that as you have told it generates signals for the last day. The reason is probably that it does not take the date given in the code but takes the date given in the exploration window. When I specify the from/to dates in the exploration window then the signals generated are for that date even though the code contains different dates. So, run your exploration by specifying the date in the exploration window instead of in the code. I am enclosing the signals generated for 6-12-06 obtained by giving the dates explicitly in exploration window. Change the file extension from .txt to .csv and open in Excel.

Regards

-Anant

 

[karthikmarar]

Hi all

As informed earlier no trades were done.

remaining positions are intact... no stoploss hit

regards

karthik

 

[AJAY]

hi karthik,
sorry again coming your way. i wonder how come you are not stopped in east silk where you bought for Rs. 307.5 and the same day it drew down to 290.20before closing at 302(physical) and 301.8 average. do you go by only eod basis to stop your trades ignoring how much drawdown comes in between? please clarify.

thanks in advance
AJAYKUMAR

 

[karthikmarar]

Dear Ajay,

First, there is no such thing as "Coming in my way". I welcome questions. Without questions there is no learning and we are all here to learn. So I do appreciate the questions especially when it is from a knowledagable person like you.

Yes, it is done on EOD basis. You are aware that many of the people we came forward to implement this exercise are not full time traders. Most are keen learners willing to spend a good part of their time in this great learning experience. So we had agreed that it wil be done on EOD basis.

Ofcourse I has its drawbacks. I had to close my position in TATAMOTORS at much lower price instead of the actual stoploss price and lose an additional rs.6500. Well, We win some and loss some.

Anyway the exercise has been a great learning experience to all us..

warm regards

Karthik

 

[SGM]

Hello friends,

MABIUTS-KS has generated the following signals based on EOD data of 13-12-2006.

******************
Ticker Trade Date Close
DRREDDY Buy 12/13/2006 785.10
GAIL Short 12/13/2006 245.55
GMRINFRA Sell 12/13/2006 333.75
GUJAMBCEM Sell 12/13/2006 134.10
REL Sell 12/13/2006 515.35
STAR Sell 12/13/2006 323.35
STER Sell 12/13/2006 523.80
SUNPHARMA Sell 12/13/2006 935.05
TATAPOWER Sell 12/13/2006 544.45
WIPRO Sell 12/13/2006 555.45


*****************
DISCLAIMER

THESE ARE NOT ANY RECOMMENDATIONS TO BUY OR SELL. THESE ARE SIGNALS GENERATED BY THE SYSTEM BEING TESTED UNDER SYSTEM IMPLEMENTATION EDUCATION EXCERCISE. ANYBODY ACTING ON THESE WILL BE SOLELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THEIR ACTIONS.

 

[AJAY]

hi karthik,
thanks for your immediate reply.

Well, We win some and loss some.

I am the first person to go with this quote. Have one more query. Can you please tell what is your stoploss % to protect your capital. Please understand my inability to read the whole thread to understand the system mechanism - looking into my health conditions. SO only I am asking you your protective stop percentage.

Thanks in advance
AJAYKUMAR

 

[asnavale]

Hi all,

This 'system implementation excercise' has brought out some more issues, specifically the SL. Karthik, Ajay, Sanjay and Kalyan are discussing this aspect in greater detail. What I am writing here is relevant or to what extent relevant, I don't know. But I want to put some points which I observed.

1. In all the stocks selected daily, the SELL signals emphatically outnumbered the BUY signals and then the crash of nearly 1000 points in SENSEX came. Was it a sign that all the systems were pointing to this downfall by generating so many SELL signals?

2. Almost all the selected scrips which were 'bought' have hit the stoploss of 5% but no sell signal came. In my opinion, it is because of incomplete selection criteria for BUY/SELL. What I mean is the coditions we have put in each of the strategies may not be sufficient, they may need additional conditions. In case of MABIUTS-HB which I am implementing this is the case. It needs another condition for BUY/SELL signal to be generated. When I put the additional condition and again tested, none of the scrips bought hit the SL of 5%. A sell signal was generated before that and the loss was around 3% of buying price.

3. I have observed that most of the BUY candidates were not supposed to be bought!. The reason is we have not checked (I surely did not check, I don't know about others) whether the stock is being accumulated or distributed. I had Distribution/Accumulation chart right in front me but never referred to it. After seeing most of the stocks hitting SL I checked it. Majority of the selected stocks (by all people) were being distributed, only few were in accumulation mode. If a stock is in distribution, surely the prices will fall. If we had applied this condition, we would not have bought many of the stocks.

I am happy that the implementation excercise started in the right time, just before the big fall. If we had carried out these tests with a good uptrend lasting for a considerable time we would have certified the systems as "FIT FOR INPLEMENTINING IN REAL SITUATIONS". Now the shortcomings are exposed and we should address them. Probably the question of SL automatically gets solved.

Regards

-Anant

 

[SavantGarde]

Hi Guys,

I have been reading this thread for a while & looking at some of the Feedbacks coming from everybody in this mock implementation exercise.

Looking at the feedbacks, I have a few suggestions which may possibly be helpful considering you all have put in so much of hardwork & frankly I wouldn't like an exercise like this dishearten anybody.

1) If BUY/SELL Triggers generated can have a 'Power Rating' say on a level of
+1 to +10 for BUY & similarly -1 to -10 for SELL

2) Perhaps, also if there can be something to indicate Sector wise
Accumulation/Distribution

3) 5% as fixed S/L is definitely not workable in my opinion, there should be a
better way of working out S/L perhaps by considering minor & major
supports & percentage of equity capital exposure.

I guess thats that for now, & Hatsoff to All involved.

Also please keep in mind that...my suggestions above are only based on the feedback of the system...that I have been reading....any oversight on my part is deeply regretted.


Regards

SavantGarde

 

[rpc]

hi anant
thanks for taking time to go through the afl.I have checked the excel file.It has generated more signals than generated on my data.But that is besides the point.What I want is the afl should itself run over the stocks contained in watchlist and list only those from the WL which have generaed reverse signal.The normal signals on remaing stocks should of course be generated.Pls advice
with best wishes
rpc