Hi Anant,
Tks for the reply , and await your results..
I really appreciate the huge effort required for keeping this going but I feel the cumulative results (even if total winners/losers or total gain/loss on MTM basis) if posted alongwith the trades would go a long way in keeping things in perspective for the readers.
..also if the results are nett negative are you saying the system needs be changed .. that would negate all this past testing wouldn't it?
Rgds,
Hi Sandhu,
Here is the summary of the my System Implementation Exercise so far.
The exercise started on 6th Dec 2006. The first round was upto 12-1-2007. The results of the first round are already posted in this thread in Post No 240.
http://www.traderji.com/73305-post240.html
The second round started on 15-01-2007. For the second round the stock selection and stoploss criterion were decided in the chat room discussions the minutes of which are posted in this thread. I changed the settings as described earlier at the beginning of the second round. I followed this till 02-02-2007. As the stoploss system was taking me out early on several occasions, I decided to use RSI along with the MABIUTS-HB system from 05-02-07.
The results of the trades from 15-01-07 till 05-02-07 are as follows:
There were a total of 22 buys during this period and 16 of these were closed as on 05-02-07. The total loss incurred in the 16 closed trades is Rs. 1073.71 which is 0.11% of the total amount of Rs. 10,00,000/- at the beginning.
The six trades which were still open on 05-02-07 were continued in to the next phase and they are being considered as part of the new phase where the BUY/SELL criterion is based on RSI combined with MABIUTS-HB. The current position of this phase of exercise is being posted every day in the thread. Many of the trades have gone down to the extent of more than 20% in this phase but no SEll signal generated. One of the reasons for such heavy downside is the crashing market during this period. Earlier system would have taken me out with some losses. But I am continuing to see whether the present system can withstand the crashes and come out safely and finally lead to profits. Some back testing on this present system has shown that the system is capable of passing through such phases successfully and I hope it does in the present situation also.
If this system fails we may have to find the reasons and remedies. The failure of the system does not imply that the efforts have gone waste. They teach us what mistakes we make and how to overcome them. As there is no real money is involved we are learning without any loss, except for the time we spend on the exercise.
These are my personal views. I do not know what other participants i.e. Karthik, Siva, rpc, have to say.
Regards
-Anant