Taming of the BULL-Crash of 21 Jan 2008

[Czar]

Well dada, keep up the good work , dont let the FII get away.... nice to see post analysis, thanks

 

[vinsu]

Dear Pankaj .

Nice to see you back with your informative posts .
keep up the work . Love your posts .

thanks

 

[MiLiNDOnline]

Hi Pankaj,

Thanks for your reply with this info, there was some settings problem thats why i had problems in getting PM I have hopefully corrected that, would you please reply to this message, to I will come to know that the Private messaging has been enabled..

As for the stock story- I have one big Red in my portfolio due to - HFCL

Thanks & Regards!

Hi Milind
You have sent me PM and chosen not to receive it so I could not reply.
Here is the reply to your query for the sake of clarity.
I think weakness will persist in these two stock and will keep a dash of red in your portfolio. So in small doses of say 5% of portfolio value could be in this. In the long run they will be winner.
I have one or two stocks which are still in red since last crash, but amount is so meager( 100@30,cmp20) that I can afford to keep it. The red color keeps me thinking that I can get loss as well. Of course it does not affect much on overall profits.
positive tension is key to growth else one may become slack.

pankaj

 

[pkjha30]

Hi Pankaj,

Thanks for your reply with this info, there was some settings problem thats why i had problems in getting PM I have hopefully corrected that, would you please reply to this message, to I will come to know that the Private messaging has been enabled..

As for the stock story- I have one big Red in my portfolio due to - HFCL

Thanks & Regards!

I have given reply to your PM. There should be only a dash of red not a big red bloodbath. Avoid such stocks which are in grip of manipulators.
10% stop loss from PP or cmp, if hit get out. That's the mantra to protect capital and profit.
reassess and re-enter if required later.
pankaj

 

[MiLiNDOnline]

I have given reply to your PM. There should be only a dash of red not a big red bloodbath. Avoid such stocks which are in grip of manipulators.
10% stop loss from PP or cmp, if hit get out. That's the mantra to protect capital and profit.
reassess and re-enter if required later.
pankaj

Hi Pankaj,

Thanks for your reply this time I did get your message and it was nice to read it

I have just replied to your message, please check it and kindly reply accordingly. I will await for your reply!

Thanks & Regards!

 

[Prabhjeet]

All the investors or traders ought to forget greed for now and capital preservation should be the key right now, if you ought to buy some stocks then it should be in large caps or blue chips, one should stay miles away from all the punter stocks right now, dont think they are going to continue their bounce to old peaks instead its only a technical bounce and stocks might test their recent lows soon.

For trading we have different gears like driving:-

When we start the car we start with 1st gear, similarly we start with large caps when bull markets start and then we shift to 2nd, 3d & 4th gears, in trading these gears correspond to larger midcaps, then smaller midcaps and final fourth gear is Small caps.

Now that the market has come to complete halt , we should start with first gear again and then keep on changing gears with momentum.

Best of Luck

 

[pkjha30]

25.1.2008

Dow 12,458.03 +79.42 (+0.64%)
Nasdaq 2,395.03 +34.11 (+1.44%)

Date-----------------buy-------------sell----------net
FII --- 25-Jan-2008 ---4689.63 --- 4481.15 ---208.48
DII ---25-Jan-2008 ---1475.88 ---1227.53 ---248.35

FII in FNO
----No. of contracts ----Amt in Crores ----No. of contracts -----Amt in Crores
INDEX FUTURES--- 168591 ---4470.79 ---91322 ---2425.18
INDEX OPTIONS ---19029 ---504.65 ---12288 ---333.97
STOCK FUTURES ---114788 ---2913.76--- 83071 ---2240.42
STOCK OPTIONS ---15 ---0.30--- 552 ---11.17


Certainly retail Investors are not in the market. Scared away.
It is either FII or ..........................

FIIs are buying heavily in index futures/options and Stock futures

hedging????
FII's long or short positions are not yet in public domain, as it should be if one is to make informed decisions. SEBI must look into this area as possible reform.

Czar has given another indicator and possibly more reliable one. Surely you can place lot of reliance in this indicator.

It is called CR-IPO Indicator in short.

C=Czar
R=Reliance
IPO= you know what.
When IPO of reliance comes market drops like dead stone within a week.
Promoters can get listed shares damn cheap as there will be rush to offload.

On a serious but speculative note , market will consolidate from here . There may be another week or so after expiry, and Blue chips will not be available at prices seen on lowest of Intraday price on the day of fall.

Midcaps/SML caps will drift down mostly.

pankaj

 

[uasish]

Nice to see your thread & thanks for the informative FII figs.

In addition to CR-IPO indicator ,whenever Czar strats frequenting traderji after few weeks hybernation along with Raj going for a holiday it is almost a Price/ Volume confirmation that a Fall is emminent,(regarding Czar it is Amit's observation).

 

[pkjha30]

Nice to see your thread & thanks for the informative FII figs.

In addition to CR-IPO indicator ,whenever Czar strats frequenting traderji after few weeks hybernation along with Raj going for a holiday it is almost a Price/ Volume confirmation that a Fall is emminent,(regarding Czar it is Amit's observation).

lol

we must add it to Technical Analysis softwares some how.

Pankaj

 

[Czar]

Hey hey both dada's, don't discount me as a bearish indicator, cause another big fall would again squash the market....