Teach A Man To Fish And.........

[sillu_m]

I don't have 1 min charts,but the 5 min charts don't show any dramatic rise in volume ---Ispat or Rel Com or NSE.

Saint

I have posted the 5 min chart. pls check them. Or is my softaware problem.

 

[lvgandhi]

I don't have 1 min charts,but the 5 min charts don't show any dramatic rise in volume ---Ispat or Rel Com or NSE.

Saint

Can you share the datafeed agency you are using? what is the monthly cost?

 

[sanx]

Saint ,its an excellent thread .Appreciate the sharing of knowledge of what you know to others .
Will be looking forward to learning and contributing to thread (if I can ) .

my first analysis ,having a look at RPL , it has consolidated from past 3 days and we can expect a breakout(uptrend) any time soon ?

Even after consolidation for 3 days ,we were expecting a breakout and start of uptrend ?; But it can break that and go downtrend also?

 

[Saint]

Saint ,its an excellent thread .Appreciate the sharing of knowledge of what you know to others .
Will be looking forward to learning and contributing to thread (if I can ) .

my first analysis ,having a look at RPL , it has consolidated from past 3 days and we can expect a breakout(uptrend) any time soon ?

Even after consolidation for 3 days ,we were expecting a breakout and start of uptrend ?; But it can break that and go downtrend also?

And therefore,Sanx,what exactly do we do?Do we buy,do we sell,or do we wait on the sidelines?The question once again is not if you are looking to daytrade........more for the 60min trader,swing trader,etc

Going in now is a gamble,isn't it?That qualifies us as guessers,gamblers,
predictors,.........not traders.

If trading is what we want to do,we neither buy as that would mean anticipating,guessing.....Neither do we sell for the same reasons.

We wait on the sidelines.......we stalk silently as a predator would a prey,and wait.Breaking either pivot,either pivot lows of 154(in futs) or pivot highs of 181 ...and we strike.

Let RPL decide where it wants to go,and then and then only do we think of entering.

The game of anticipation,guessing,thinking that one is smarter than the market................fraught with danger.Been there,done that,my friend.

All the Best!
Happy Trading!
Saint

 

[Saint]

Sorry,Sanx,prev pivot high of 175(not 181 as said in previous post)........above that and we see a change in trend.

Saint

 

[rangarajan]

Dear Saint,
In the weekly chart of sail,the pivot high of 280 was formed on 2/11.The stock closed twice above that.However,the uptrend was short lived & the stock came down.According to pivot theory,one should enter once the stock closed above.
Kindly explain where it went wrong.
So also the case with Praj & Lic.

 

[Saint]

Dear Saint,
In the weekly chart of sail,the pivot high of 280 was formed on 2/11.The stock closed twice above that.However,the uptrend was short lived & the stock came down.According to pivot theory,one should enter once the stock closed above.
Kindly explain where it went wrong.
So also the case with Praj & Lic.

Hi Rangarajan,

Presuming you are a position trader from the question above.

Here we are looking at long term charts,weekly and daily.

Have a look at SAIL weekly charts.Now look for a pullback that is evident on the weekly charts,which means a downtrend on the daily charts.That is lower pivot highs and lows on the daily.Once we get a break(ie higher pivot lows and highs),enter.

Now what was wrong with that pivot high of 280 in Nov?Why can't we wait for another pullback,and then angle in using the daily charts?And then enter over the highs.

Answer:GRADIENT of the slope.

It gives us some clues as position traders........they tell us,"Alright,let's get ready to sell what we have,coz' we're gonna get it much lower than this in the fall that is to come."

Not the time to buy.........Time to lighten up on what you have,or stand aside waiting for an opportunity to get in if you are not in it already.

Have a look at the daily chart of SAIL.

Saint

 

[djsinha]

Hi Rangarajan,

Presuming you are a position trader from the question above.

Here we are looking at long term charts,weekly and daily.

Have a look at SAIL weekly charts.Now look for a pullback that is evident on the weekly charts,which means a downtrend on the daily charts.That is lower pivot highs and lows on the daily.Once we get a break(ie higher pivot lows and highs),enter.

Now what was wrong with that pivot high of 280 in Nov?Why can't we wait for another pullback,and then angle in using the daily charts?And then enter over the highs.

Answer:GRADIENT of the slope.

It gives us some clues as position traders........they tell us,"Alright,let's get ready to sell what we have,coz' we're gonna get it much lower than this in the fall that is to come."

Not the time to buy.........Time to lighten up on what you have,or stand aside waiting for an opportunity to get in if you are not in it already.

Have a look at the daily chart of SAIL.

Saint

Wonderful Saint. The trendline-trading this counter for nearly 1 yr and exiting on the ascending wedge breakdown towards the right side of the chart is just superb. Hats off to you.
I want to just add something. Prices are seen to rise parabolically here. By parabolic rise, I mean, if you look at the treandlines you'll find that:

slope of trendline 3 > slope of trendline 2 > slope of trendline 1
(I've marked trendlines 1,2 and 3 in the attached pic for your easy reference.) Now the rule here is that, in case of parabolic price rises over a period of time, once your steepest trendline gets broken on the downside, exit fully.
Here our steepest trendline is trendline-3. So Rangarajan, even if you have entered at 280 levels on 2/11, you have a signal to exit on mid-November, when that long black bar (encircled one in the pic) breaks trendline-3 on the downside. May be you could have exited half or one-third on this signal and the other half or two-thirds on the asc wedge breakdown as was nicely pointed out by Saint.

Cheers
D. J. Sinha

 

[djsinha]

Saint ,its an excellent thread .Appreciate the sharing of knowledge of what you know to others .
Will be looking forward to learning and contributing to thread (if I can ) .

my first analysis ,having a look at RPL , it has consolidated from past 3 days and we can expect a breakout(uptrend) any time soon ?

Even after consolidation for 3 days ,we were expecting a breakout and start of uptrend ?; But it can break that and go downtrend also?

Dear Sanx, I would advise you to see candlestick chart and decide on breakout/ breakdowns. U'll get precise signals there. A simple line graph doesn't give much signals and can often misguide you.

I've attached the candlestick chart for RPL. I'll not say it's a consolidation because consolidations typically occur after a huge rally. But, here it has occured after a decline. And I personally wouldn't go long on this for the simple reason that it has shown a gap up which is not supported much by volumes. So chances are there that the gap will get filled up on the downside.

Cheers
djsinha

 

[rangarajan]

Hi Rangarajan,

Presuming you are a position trader from the question above.

Here we are looking at long term charts,weekly and daily.

Have a look at SAIL weekly charts.Now look for a pullback that is evident on the weekly charts,which means a downtrend on the daily charts.That is lower pivot highs and lows on the daily.Once we get a break(ie higher pivot lows and highs),enter.

Now what was wrong with that pivot high of 280 in Nov?Why can't we wait for another pullback,and then angle in using the daily charts?And then enter over the highs.

Answer:GRADIENT of the slope.

It gives us some clues as position traders........they tell us,"Alright,let's get ready to sell what we have,coz' we're gonna get it much lower than this in the fall that is to come."

Not the time to buy.........Time to lighten up on what you have,or stand aside waiting for an opportunity to get in if you are not in it already.

Have a look at the daily chart of SAIL.

Saint

Thank you Saint,
I was wondering as to why you had not replied.
As usual .Very good teaching for future guidance with visual chart.
I did exit @255 with loss.
your initial lesson on pivot,did not say this aspect of slope gradient ,wedge etc.
Men become wiser by experience & i am no exception!
Many so called stalwart analyst gave a BUY call at 280 with Tgt beyond 300.
You have now taught when to exit aswel if the trade is against you.
By the way Saint,pl accept my compliments once again on yr knowledge sharing on pivots,i am a more confident trader & Investor nowadays ,courtesy Saint.
Happy trading.