Teach A Man To Fish And.........
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Dear Saint ,
Re:Nifty spoton 01/11/2008.
The trend on weekly charts was UP, when the week ended on 01/11/2008. The weekly ascending trend line was also intact as on 01/11/2008. So, the signal was to go long on pullback on daily charts. There was pullback on daily charts, and longs were also triggered by 01/14-01/15. However, instead of NS moving up it tanked down.
1)Please let me know did you people got exit long/ go short signal by 01/11/2008?
2)Did I made any mistake in my study/ analysis , please let me know?
Date format mm/dd/yyyy
01/11 means 1st Jan, 2008
Re:Nifty spoton 01/11/2008.
The trend on weekly charts was UP, when the week ended on 01/11/2008. The weekly ascending trend line was also intact as on 01/11/2008. So, the signal was to go long on pullback on daily charts. There was pullback on daily charts, and longs were also triggered by 01/14-01/15. However, instead of NS moving up it tanked down.
1)Please let me know did you people got exit long/ go short signal by 01/11/2008?
2)Did I made any mistake in my study/ analysis , please let me know?
Date format mm/dd/yyyy
01/11 means 1st Jan, 2008
Hi Marcus,
We are very much in an intermediate downtrend,as is evident on one look at the weekly charts.A bear market or bull is as per the primary trends,so far we are still in a Bull market with an intermed downtrend in progress.
There are some who play the primary trends,they pile on in 2003,and if we get a bear crack in 2008,they are out.........mistakenly referred to as investors,but they are very much traders,they are not looking to buy and hold,and average downwards,etc.
Yep,when they really get a crack and they exit,it would not be at the top......but that's the name of the game.Don't forget,they would have got in when SENSEX was at 3758!
So,as of today :Short term Downtrend
Intermediate Downtrend
Primary Uptrend
Secular Uptrend
For those of us who would like to play the weekly charts,the intermediate uptrend ended with the charts cracking 18930,crack of that and we are out of the markets,or we are short the markets.
So,all kinds of time frames,all kinds of strategies.........but perspective is important.So far,the Bull market is on.........And India is strong because unlike the others,it's a Bull market in a Secular Bull.A day will come,when India gets into a Bear Mkt within a Secular Bull,but that day is not yet upon us.Whether this top would end up as THE top,only time will tell.
More later!!
Saint
We are very much in an intermediate downtrend,as is evident on one look at the weekly charts.A bear market or bull is as per the primary trends,so far we are still in a Bull market with an intermed downtrend in progress.
There are some who play the primary trends,they pile on in 2003,and if we get a bear crack in 2008,they are out.........mistakenly referred to as investors,but they are very much traders,they are not looking to buy and hold,and average downwards,etc.
Yep,when they really get a crack and they exit,it would not be at the top......but that's the name of the game.Don't forget,they would have got in when SENSEX was at 3758!
So,as of today :Short term Downtrend
Intermediate Downtrend
Primary Uptrend
Secular Uptrend
For those of us who would like to play the weekly charts,the intermediate uptrend ended with the charts cracking 18930,crack of that and we are out of the markets,or we are short the markets.
So,all kinds of time frames,all kinds of strategies.........but perspective is important.So far,the Bull market is on.........And India is strong because unlike the others,it's a Bull market in a Secular Bull.A day will come,when India gets into a Bear Mkt within a Secular Bull,but that day is not yet upon us.Whether this top would end up as THE top,only time will tell.
More later!!
Saint
Nothing wrong Trader,......the curse of every trend is the last bend.
That rising wedge was our hint that a fall is imminent,that it was clearly evident on the weekly charts is more worrying,that week that ended on 11th ended as a doji,at the upper resistance line and to compound matters was the third touch of the resistance line.That was your cue.....to get out.......breaking 6113,you are out.If not then,at least 5950-ish,the point where the rising wedge cracked.
So,exit long should have been the 2 areas mentioned above.Shorting below 5950.........
As said,even if you went long above 6223,your stop should have been 6113...after which you are out.
Do get back to me with doubts if not clear......
Take care,and all the best!
Saint
That rising wedge was our hint that a fall is imminent,that it was clearly evident on the weekly charts is more worrying,that week that ended on 11th ended as a doji,at the upper resistance line and to compound matters was the third touch of the resistance line.That was your cue.....to get out.......breaking 6113,you are out.If not then,at least 5950-ish,the point where the rising wedge cracked.
So,exit long should have been the 2 areas mentioned above.Shorting below 5950.........
As said,even if you went long above 6223,your stop should have been 6113...after which you are out.
Do get back to me with doubts if not clear......
Take care,and all the best!
Saint
Ah,Citrus,..........no absolutely right answer to that one.
I am an "eyeball" sort of person,meaning I gotta visually scan before taking a decision........I basically go through the whole lot in the weekends,from where I choose the juicy ones for the week.And those,I visually scan everyday and get the entry points,exit points,stops,position size,etc.......then I am ready for battle for the next day.Ready to use my eyes and shut my thinking....
How many stocks?As much or as little as you can.....basically your call.
You really ought to ask this question to our wizards in this forum.....they would give you a high tech answer,they'd probably simplify your life a great deal......but this is how I go about.A bit too stuck in my ways,I guess!!
All the best!
Saint
I am an "eyeball" sort of person,meaning I gotta visually scan before taking a decision........I basically go through the whole lot in the weekends,from where I choose the juicy ones for the week.And those,I visually scan everyday and get the entry points,exit points,stops,position size,etc.......then I am ready for battle for the next day.Ready to use my eyes and shut my thinking....
How many stocks?As much or as little as you can.....basically your call.
You really ought to ask this question to our wizards in this forum.....they would give you a high tech answer,they'd probably simplify your life a great deal......but this is how I go about.A bit too stuck in my ways,I guess!!
All the best!
Saint
The very aim of a longer term trader is that he/she wishes to catch a primary trend in motion...........meaning he leaves a lot on the table and is proven right as new highs are made.It was all worth the pain.And this happens again and again,until that absolute top is finally made.This time,no new highs are made.........he loses what is left on the table.
Part of systematic trading.....one stays in,till confirmation happens that it's time to be out.And yes,a lot is left behind on the table.....
Not many have the stomach for it though,therefore the existence of traders in multiple time frames.......that which suits you best is what you employ.
And of course,there are a truckload of strategies out there......whatever you do,do it in systematic fashion.A set modus operandi,a definite method to the madness.
Saint
Part of systematic trading.....one stays in,till confirmation happens that it's time to be out.And yes,a lot is left behind on the table.....
Not many have the stomach for it though,therefore the existence of traders in multiple time frames.......that which suits you best is what you employ.
And of course,there are a truckload of strategies out there......whatever you do,do it in systematic fashion.A set modus operandi,a definite method to the madness.
Saint
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