Technical Analysis - Practice trades

[manojborle]

HEROMOTOCO

Steep climb from 2250 to 2737. And then the stock pulled back ~ 50%. Have drawn a tentative uptrend line. Gotta see how the stock reacts.

Enter @ 2527.5; Expecting support @ 2500 levels.

I think you have not considered the Gap down in February which it tried to fill in this month.

 

[mindgames]

I think you have not considered the Gap down in February which it tried to fill in this month.

Oh yes, missed that completely.

 

[mindgames]

RAYMOND

Good rise today @ moderate volume and now it's kissing the downtrend line.
Reached a 2 month high and closed well too. While the resistance at 460s has been breached, reckon the tough part comes now - as previously the stock had a near vertical fall from 500 to this lever in Mar-15.

Was getting too steep. Could have closed the trade earlier but hung on. Exit @ 465.75. No regrets.

Incidentally the close is under the downtrend line - not that it was the deciding factor. _/\_

 

[mindgames]

HEROMOTOCO

Steep climb from 2250 to 2737. And then the stock pulled back ~ 50%. Have drawn a tentative uptrend line. Gotta see how the stock reacts.

Enter @ 2527.5; Expecting support @ 2500 levels.

Went up to 2580 but fell thereafter, leaving a long upper shadow. Vacating all positions, exit @ 2555. Tentative TL holds. _/\_

 

[mindgames]

Exit @ 849. Was in a quandary over whether to sit tight and "let winners run" but ultimately decided to square off around 11 AM. Do think there's more left in the stock but mentally not strong enough. Futures closed @ 852.75 - going up to as much as 859. Still at a d/c to market price.

On the charts, gap up opening. Downtrend line breached at good volumes and a close above the TL - This happened on the last swing too but the big red engulf killed it. Will track this for academic interest.

Decisive penetration. 2 consecutive closes above the downtrend line. Stock even pulled back and found support on the breached TL.

Not sure if the next TL is a valid one, it was never confirmed by a third touch-point.

 

[mindgames]

AIRTEL

Stop loss hit @ 418.2 by a sudden surge in 2nd half of the day. Bad call. Looking back, maybe I jumped too early into the trade - there doesn't seem to be a convincing uptrend before the piercing pattern (past 2 weeks were more of a sideways trend).

1. Trend on monthly and weekly chart? LT uptrend intact
2. Any defined candlestick pattern? Bearish engulf on moderate volume. Also, an ~ Marubozu.
3. Support & Resistance points on daily and weekly charts? Resistance @ 435 to 440. Nearest support @ 425 (previous resistance and swing close); Next at ~ 415.
4. Any known chart patterns based on TLs (incl gaps)? Tentative double top with high of 29th May

Enter @ 426.

 

[mindgames]

GODREJ

1. Trend on monthly and weekly chart? LT uptrend intact
2. Any defined candlestick pattern? NO
3. Support & Resistance points? Nearest resistance @ 350 (High of 3rd Jun). Nearest support @ 335 level (prev candle low/close)
4. Any known chart patterns based on TLs (incl gaps)? - Suspect Saucer.

Enter @ 346.8

 

[mindgames]

AIRTEL
Enter @ 426.

SL hit at 433.5. Even the best candlestick formations fail.

 

[mindgames]

Meanwhile, a daytrade in ONGC that went wrong. Spotted a hammer during uptrend, went long with SL at low of the hammer. Very next candle surpassed it even before I could enter the SL details.

Was a trade taken when mentally I wasn't ok.

 

[mindgames]

AIRTEL

SL hit at 433.5. Even the best candlestick formations fail.

22nd Jun - Short position on Airtel after a bearish engulf.

23rd Jun - SL was hit - ideally this should have been placed at the high of the bearish engulf in spot market. Though this SL was for futures, the SL price was determined based on spot rates. Think I should avoid this in the future.

25th Jun - A long entry @ 430, during y'day's close. This trade was to some extent swayed by views of other chartists and some ichimoku gyaan I picked up. SL hit today @ 424. No reasons based on charting

Don't know how today's candle may play out, but in hindsight, strictly following the rule of waiting for the spot price to hit SL might have saved me.

Long story short:
1/ Place stop losses correctly, based on the right chart.
2/ Don't enter a trade on a whim - that is being mentally weak