The Crash( 17.5.2006) and FII activities since then

[tanewbie]

Dear Pankaj

to say this:
The beauty of this is that both long and shorts were at the wrong ends.
is bit wrong. I was having 3000 puts bot @65 at 3 pm on thursday and closed @ 91 ( high was 108) as soon as nifty became a buy in the hourly charts. I sold off my puts and bot 3000 calls @46+ which by the end of day doubled.

So all we need is to watch the intraday charts closely and look for opportunities on both sides. If a newbie like me can do it think what the real pros will be doing daily!

 

[pkjha30]

Dear Pankaj

to say this:
The beauty of this is that both long and shorts were at the wrong ends.
is bit wrong. I was having 3000 puts bot @65 at 3 pm on thursday and closed @ 91 ( high was 108) as soon as nifty became a buy in the hourly charts. I sold off my puts and bot 3000 calls @46+ which by the end of day doubled.

So all we need is to watch the intraday charts closely and look for opportunities on both sides. If a newbie like me can do it think what the real pros will be doing daily!

Thats great I have to withdraw the statement. Bit speculative. I know you are pro and not newbie as you say.
Pankaj

 

[mahmeds2000]

Hi

Here's NSE figure

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in the Capital Market segment(In Rs. Crores)
Date--- Buy Value--- Sell Value ---Net Value
23-Jun-2006--- 943.59--- 900.94--- 42.65

And SEBI figure
Reporting Date ---- Gross Purchases(Rs Crores)---- Gross Sales(Rs Crores)--- Net Investment (Rs Crores)--- Net Investment US($) million at month exchange rate
23-JUN-2006---- 1359.60---- 1562.20---- (202.60)---- (44.60)

And MFs
Date ----buy----sell----net
22.06.06---500.24---416.99---83.25


TRADE STATISTICS FOR 23-Jun-2006
No. of trades 3,134,189
Traded Qty. (lakh shares) 2,841.00
Traded Value (Rs. crores) 6,445.72

Well, rise on a subdued volume.It may not convince many. As per NSE FIIs are net buyer but by smaller amount. SEBI says they are net seller(It may include previously unreported figures)

So let us see AD Ratio
Advances--- 455 --- Declines --- 466 --- Unchanged --- 17.


Well quite across the board and evenly matched.I would think quite secular.
So let us see what nifty ADR is

Advances / Declines
Advances 31
Declines 18
Unchanged 1

Oh situation changes in favour of rise. Is it what Ravi said ??Only Reliance. Rumours of Bonus. May be. But I would love to think otherwise.

Others may like to give more elaborate comments on the whole situation. But one thing is clear that by the time we pronounce,if at all, that uptrend is in place, never in doubt, we will see that it is racing ahead.

No advice from me. Just the raw data. Analyse youself.

Without being exuberant let us see what global market situation is

Europe finally ended in red except for one or two indices.
In Asia china India and Indonesia ended positive. All others in red only

Dow---36.42 (0.33%) and Nasdaq ---6.88 (0.44%) has started in red.

Investors have two days ahead to setle their mind. Next weak D-Day is approaching. There will be tryst with bernanke and one event will be out of reckoning for the time being.

Bond yields are stated to have increased. So money will fly to such securities in USA. That may be one reason why Dow is subdued. Indians might take sentimental hits on monday.

Pankaj

Hi Dada,
THODA CLEAR ADVICE DO BHAI. I am very new to the market. I am always looking for this thread to get the clear sigle. I can't analyse from these raw data. Also what u wanted to say abt. monday can't got.
But now my six sense tell me monday will be bad day for the retailer.

wrgrds
Ahmed

 

[Czar]

games of operators & their publicity through the media... today till half day they kept showing inflation, asian markets weak, bonds, etc. & in the next half the recovery began on news like Mittal has now a very good chance to take over arsenal ??? so tisco shot up 20 bucks & then thing started turning... games games games..

ofcourse then came the rumour of RIL bonus... so easy to tug the market from one end to enother & take retailers for a ride...

I'd like to change your statement a bit dada, when the mob thinks the uptrend has resumed, it usually is nearing an end for that rally..

 

[pkjha30]

Hi Dada,
THODA CLEAR ADVICE DO BHAI. I am very new to the market. I am always looking for this thread to get the clear sigle. I can't analyse from these raw data. Also what u wanted to say abt. monday can't got.
But now my six sense tell me monday will be bad day for the retailer.

wrgrds
Ahmed

Hi Ahmed

Sorry for that.
The upshot of the whole thing in my opinion is that in current week there was more of retail participation when sensex was rising but FIIs largely held back. Volumes are not that great. On occasions we have defied DOW and NASDAQ especially in last two days.

FIIs have too great a hold on us .So if market is rising without their obvious participation then it is a sign for worry and persisting weakness.
Fortunately we have been on the positive side but not out of woods.As I said every rise will be met with supply. After three days rise, monday qualifies for weak opening and weak closing. If we remain above 3000 that will be psychological boost and , if Dow and Nasdaq ends up positive then we will go up. You have two days time to think on all this and makeup your mind.

Another point, expiry date of F&O is next week. This will have definitely impact along with rate announcement by USA FED.On positive Dow closing indices will jump hugely else it will be weak. Everything depends on two factors called FII and global cues. It will be magnified by F&O and FED Rate(already factored in for a large measure )

Pankaj

 

[pkjha30]

games of operators & their publicity through the media... today till half day they kept showing inflation, asian markets weak, bonds, etc. & in the next half the recovery began on news like Mittal has now a very good chance to take over arsenal ??? so tisco shot up 20 bucks & then thing started turning... games games games..

ofcourse then came the rumour of RIL bonus... so easy to tug the market from one end to enother & take retailers for a ride...

I'd like to change your statement a bit dada, when the mob thinks the uptrend has resumed, it usually is nearing an end for that rally..

Hi czar

I have not watched media for six months flat. So I didn't know about rumour.
But Tisco is one I am watching since it was 115 or so pre bonus.

Pankaj

 

[mahmeds2000]

Hi Ahmed

Sorry for that.
The upshot of the whole thing in my opinion is that in current week there was more of retail participation when sensex was rising but FIIs largely held back. Volumes are not that great. On occasions we have defied DOW and NASDAQ especially in last two days.

FIIs have too great a hold on us .So if market is rising without their obvious participation then it is a sign for worry and persisting weakness.
Fortunately we have been on the positive side but not out of woods.As I said every rise will be met with supply. After three days rise, monday qualifies for weak opening and weak closing. If we remain above 3000 that will be psychological boost and , if Dow and Nasdaq ends up positive then we will go up. You have two days time to think on all this and makeup your mind.

Another point, expiry date of F&O is next week. This will have definitely impact along with rate announcement by USA FED.On positive Dow closing indices will jump hugely else it will be weak. Everything depends on two factors called FII and global cues. It will be magnified by F&O and FED Rate(already factored in for a large measure )

Pankaj

Hi Dada,
Thanks a lot dada. Now thats very clear.

I wanted to share my thought on market. what i am watching in this month?

1. Mutual is continuously selling even if FII is buying.
2. FII is buying is buying slowly desipite selling one two occation.
3. on 21st june both mutual and FII were net seller still market up.
4. Today FII is buying is less, still market is up.

Now what making me worry
1. why mutual are selling when FII is buying for the whole month?
2. I think FII wanted to sell all at highest level so boosting market little so that to attract the indian investor.
3. From last two three days they not sold hugely( waiting to sell at highest level). They want now let the people think that this bull market.
4. If FED increase the intrest rate. again bloodbath start and now this time more dangerous then present.
What i think all mutual funds know in advance that all FII wanted to quit from india ( except from some of the stock which they boghut in this month ) that's why they are not buying and waiting to bottom out the market after major selling by the FII's.
What FII's want, they start buying in this month to book more profit by selling at higher level. they r building the confidence of indian invester by buying whole month and they success.
One more thing i can't understand till yet FII's sold only 4% of there total investment and all the indian share is down by 30% to 75% some are more then that. I can't understand how this is possible? this means that when FII's sold 4% our all indian investor sold 30 to 75% but i don't think they have sold that much so how the price of the share is that much down. Once i was thinking that if FII's will sell 30 to 40% then our indian stock price will go down to 90 to 99% ( it is good that there is no -ve system otherwise our some stock could go to -ve and we have to pay more money).
I think "ABHI TAK HAMARE ANDER SE GULAMI GAYI NAHI HAI". why we are so dependent on FII's. I think in india itself there is people having more cash then FII more knowledge then FII's but still we depend on FII's. I can only say this is GULAMI GULAMI GULAMI...
This all are my thought i know my thoughts are wrong but i wanted to know where i am wrong? i know time will tel to me. But before that if dada and Bron gives more light then i will be very happy.
wrgrds
Ahmed

 

[pkjha30]

Hi Ahmed

You have raised certain issues ,which are vital and needs to be analysed by all in order to understand it.

First , our MFs are selling because they are under redemption pressure without openly acknowledgeing it(would be a sign of wekness and it would start a run on them cascading effect)

Secondly, FIIs sold around 4% on 10 days. This four percent is derived from FIIs total holding. But if you see their sale and purchase that is much more and its impact will be more pronounced.
--------------------Buy--------sale--------------net
Total for May 2006---- 47728.8--- 55082.9----( -7354.2) This is four percent of total holding in May 2006 (3.94181%)

Grand Total till May 31, 2006---1069729.4--- 883165.1--- 186564.3 (Invested amount by end of May))
Grand Total till June 23, 2006 ---- 1100711.8--- 913150.3--- 187561.5 (Invested amount Till Now.)Shows slight increase.


People are so scared that they won't think it is a bull market untill it is too late for them. Meanwhile, intelligent people like members of this forum will trade wisely and get the most of this market. Money is made both ways.

Many would try and recover their losses. Some would like to get out when it rallies.

Abt Fed Rate

If you something is coming and widely anticipated then when it actually comes, not much of the impact will be seen. Why we are ready for the storm. So Fed rate increase has already been factored to a large extent. Unless they increase much more than what is anticipated nothing will happen. My guess.
If they increase less than the anticipated rate prices will move up.
If they increase more than anticipated then prices will surely plummet.

Dependence on FIIs

The overdependence on FII is inevitable. The global economy is becoming one place. Some years ago when one India got jog in Bangalore, ten Amricans got Pink slips(quit notices) and they called themselves bangalored (Just like floored) Now TCS is planning to recruit 1000 Americans. many Forigners want to come and work in bangalore. Fund Houses also shifted their money from USA Stock market to Bonds and Govt Securities but volatality was less because of rules and regulations and wide retail participation. That increases depth of market which is absent in india. Still it is not regarded as a valid source of income but rather a tarnished source of Income.Stock broker is the most distrusted of the lot and if you call somebody a broker that means you are abusing him. This mindset has not chaged and practices so some brokers only reinforces this impression.It may be wrong but it is there.If somebody makes a money instock market people tend to think he has usurped somebody's hard earned money and is looked down upon. The participation is still speculative and many laws need to be changed to make it socially acceptable one.

So we will have dependence on FIIs , It is not Gulaami or anything. It is called world economic integration. We should also be allowed to invest in other countries and then we will be equally influential.Further, if that four % was in a span of four months it would not have casued a ripple. They used their money power and drove the prices down so we are scared to think it will go to 7600 or 4500 or 3500. The drop is a result of this psychological fear rather than result of poor fundamentals.Is there a limit? No. But will it go down? Only time will tell. FII actions clearly indicate that it will not go down as predicted by doomsayers.India is firmly on growth path albit with deficiencies.

Pankaj

 

[adilsaleem]

could any one tell me why the market is open tomorrow for 1 hour ?

 

[adilsaleem]

is there a possibility of touching 2900 on the nifty next week ?