The Crash( 17.5.2006) and FII activities since then

[pkjha30]

Hi dada,
H r u? from long time i was waiting for your mail thanks for this. we all r very thankfull to u for being with us in bad time as nobody except VV and u with us i also have learn a lot from u. Also keep writing for us some times .

Ahmed

Hi Ahmed

I am fine. being part of this forum has been wonderful experience for me and contributing when we witnessed one of the worst drops in the market. My thinking is all the time on a long term basis. Discipline is something which saves a lot in all aspects of life and society and market is no exception.

Will try to post as much as possible, but in the times of upward momentum of the market there are many who would give better ideas.

Pankaj

 

[vinsu]

Hi Ahmed

Will try to post as much as possible, but in the times of upward momentum of the market there are many who would give better ideas.

Pankaj

Hi Pankaj .
It was a delight to read your thoughts / opinion after a long time . Do keep posting regularly upward or downward , what ever way the market goes .
Many might give better ( trading ) ideas but no one gives better insight.

Keep it up
Vinsu

 

[Saint]

............Last but not the least,always be careful with your investments and keep stoploss and also strict watch over them.Monitor those FII friends on routine basis for hint of imminent collapse. But let me tell you my thinking . It may drop another 2000 points from 15000 and that might take some time. But then I would be and may be a fool to tell that sensex would rise as I was telling since its fall( mine got averaged out ). Never predict the market , respect its dynamics and move with it like you ride a horse, you move up and down with movement of horse either galloping or cantering

Take whatever I have said with a pinch of salt as I firmly believe in My Country and its growth.Do You?

I am incorrigible and Hope is eternal.

Great write up,my friend.Always a pleasure to read your posts......Great stuff and keep em coming!

Saint

 

[amitt29]

Each word is like a gem,Welcome Back Pankaj.
I have a request.Kindly keep this thread alive by posting weekly,if u have time for us unseen friends.
Thanks and Warm regards
Amit.

 

[pkjha30]

Great write up,my friend.Always a pleasure to read your posts......Great stuff and keep em coming!

Saint

Hi Saint

As always you are very considerate and encouraging

Your presence is like a light house to all members
pankaj

 

[pkjha30]

Each word is like a gem,Welcome Back Pankaj.
I have a request.Kindly keep this thread alive by posting weekly,if u have time for us unseen friends.
Thanks and Warm regards
Amit.

Hi Amit thanks for kind words. I will try my best. But you are more than enough for this forum
pankaj

 

[pkjha30]

Hi Pankaj .
It was a delight to read your thoughts / opinion after a long time . Do keep posting regularly upward or downward , what ever way the market goes .
Many might give better ( trading ) ideas but no one gives better insight.

Keep it up
Vinsu

Hi Vinsu

Thanks for your words. I just spoke my mind. Take it as coming from a novice. My insight is in our economy market is still a deep mystry. If it crosses 14000 by December, I wouldn't be surprised as new lambs would not venture out till they are sure of uptrend(usually at the last moments)

And those who are invested are wiser and disciplined. Ask Ganesh and Satya and other members

Pankaj

 

[pkjha30]

Hi


From the lows of June 14 (after the crash of May 2006) the market has come a long way. Till now I could not find any of the foreign and desi frogs croacking. They were amazingly silent. Now only we have started to hear some of the noises from FROGS and also singing praise of midcaps and smlcaps stocks.This is a clear sign of home run to the target of 15000 from now on that sensex has crossed 13200 i.e. 20% upside.

Till now retails investors have not much participated in the run from 9000 to 13000. Therefore it appears plausible that all effort would be made to attract reatil investors. Therefore, I think it would be advisable to exercise utmost caution in investment. This is mostly for short term investors and not for long term investment who would have invested in stocks of their choice much earlier. Even now for long term investment would not be a problem provided they invest in fundamentally sound companies but to always keep in mind to protect their profit.

Whether market runs up beyond 15000 or not will not be the question , but whether there will be talk of economy overheating and consequent overvaluation of market and then the plung to say abt 20% . That will take us back to somewhere around current level. With this scenario in mind only investment decisions should be made.

Investment in frontline companies are better then midcaps or smlcps which would be stirring to do something which they otherwise could not do in current economic development. And once retail investors have been done with these companies will again go back to sleep.

Therefore, for short term I think ride with the market trend but follow the discipline. Once target is reached or say 80% reached, get out. Don't get lured by more upside. There will always be some upside left and there will always be other stocks to invest safely.

One thing which I was always convinced abt is that Indian growth story is still unfolding and will continue to do so for next 10 years ro so. We have so much distance to cover yet.Therefore market will have to reflect this and it may be in real long term secular uptrend and primary trend appears to have resumed.

pankaj

 

[pasha]

Hi Pankaj,
It's great to read your excellent comments once again. For a while I thought this thread would'nt be revived.
Your analysis and insights are helping all of us, so keep it up!!

 

[am_investor]

Hi Pankaj,

Great words of Wisdom & Knowledge.