The Nifty Trading Lounge

[Taurus1]

RBI meet on the 18th.
Already 50-75 bps has been priced in, what happens if it doesn't materialize??

And of course Greek election results on the same day.

 

[timepass]

India an unattractive destination, says Goldman Sachs

India an unattractive destination, says Goldman Sachs
Press Trust of India, 13 Jun 2012 | 08:19 PM


Indian stock market does not present attractive prospects for investors in the near term amid sluggish domestic and global economic growth outlook, according to Goldman Sachs.

The global investment banking major in its report said that a sluggish domestic and global growth outlook would have a bearing on the Indian equities in the coming months.

"We find that the Indian stock market does not present an attractive risk/reward entry point currently as macro headwinds are likely to persist in the near-term," it said.

The report titled 'India: Fade short-lived rally, not too late to underweight portfolio' focuses on the performance and future outlook for National Stock Exchange's 50-share benchmark Nifty index.

Goldman Sachs said that continued weak domestic growth in the next 3-6 months as well as a poor global growth environment would weigh on Nifty, which has been seeing bearish trends in recent months.

This index, according to Goldman Sachs, is the "most exposed market in Asia to a 'muddle-through' environment through liquidity and foreign corporate debt linkages".

"Poor Nifty performance has been attributable in part to a gridlocked political landscape, plagued by project delays and lack of reforms.

"While we agree that the political headlines have created uncertainty in the market, the main impact to the market is through the investment channel in our view," the report said.

Goldman Sachs noted that an important component of "our underweight view on India" stems from risk of significant capital flight.

It said while the impact of RBI rate cuts is months away, a potentially poor monsoon season poses risks of sticky inflation which in turn might dampen policy flexibility in case growth continues to slide.

Pointing out that India relies on foreign funding, Goldman Sachs said: "Lowered growth expectations for India have impacted investment appetite already, and we are wary of policies that could further curb capital flows into the country or beget foreigner equity selling, which has not yet occurred in size."

Concerns are on the rise that Indian economy is losing momentum, mainly after it touched a nine-year low of 6.5 per cent in 2011-12. Also, industrial production rose just 0.1 per cent in April as against 5.3 per cent in the year-ago period.

Indian economy expanded 8.4 per cent for two straight years2009-10 and 2010-11even as many developed nations reeled under the impact of 2008 financial meltdown.

Now where did they get that thing about "potentially poor monsoon season"??

 

[SavantGarde]

TP....last week we had Citi and Morgan Stanley having their respective India Investor Conference.... look at the irony...on the channels they kept maintaining underweight stance.... and in the background they were having their conference....it is always the case....once before I remember UBS and Barclays.... they did the same thing....!!!

What is to be read between the lines of what these idiots say...is that small investors should start deploying....!!!

Thing one must understand is that they use the channels and every possible media to keep small investors away from buying when they are accumulating...it has always been the case in the past and so shall it be in the future...!!!

SG

 

[Taurus1]

Inflation marginally up, good enough reason for a 25 bps rate hike.

 

[prabhsingh]

I personally feel 0% rate cut will happen this time because last time RBI has already slashed rates quite aggresively and this time Inflation are not showing any signs of calming down.Remember rate cut is not down only for Stock Markets but India's deficit also needs to be taken into consideration.If they cut down the rates,S&P can lower down Country's rating as a whole hence RBI will be very cautious this time.

 

[Taurus1]

Bank Nifty down 2.73%.
RBI rate cut may not be as planned?

 

[Taurus1]

The true implications and repercussion of the Greek bank run

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-18436777

Greeks have responded to this news by taking their money out of the country's banks.
Withdrawals have reportedly amounted to up to 800m euros a day in recent days.
When a Greek removes 1,000 euros from his or her account, the bank borrows the money from the Greek central bank.

What is unique is that the Greek central bank then automatically borrows that same 1,000 euros from the European Central Bank via the Target2 payments system used to settle cross-border transactions in the eurozone.

In other words, the run on the Greek banks is being financed by the rest of the eurozone. Every 1,000 euros withdrawn from the Greek banks increases the ECB's exposure to an eventual euro exit by Greece by precisely 1,000 euros.

 

[Taurus1]

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article35135.html

There are silent runs on banks in Spain, Greece and Italy. The Bank of Italy authorized the suspension of payments by Bank Network Investments Spa (BNI) without communicating anything to depositors. The BNI, a large Italian bank, suspended operations and clients with bank accounts could not write checks, pay bills, make mortgage payments, use ATMs or debit and credit cards.

 

[MurAtt]

Congress to TMC: "We hate you".
TMC to Congress: "We don't love you either".
Together : "We don't want Divorce".

Public, as usual, left Scratching head.

 

[Taurus1]

3 Scenarios for the Greek Elections
http://www.forexcrunch.com/3-scenarios-for-the-greek-elections/