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U
Hi,
Will post my detailed views to-morrow evening,time to post an earlier Link once again.
http://www.4shared.com/file/11931269/cf360e6e/Nifty_Fut.html
I can only share now that i was a dumb fool ,the Rise of Nifty on friday was exactly on the 45 days on time count if counted from 3rd Top.Lost a big opprtunity.Was too much defensively bias.Rest on Sunday Eve.
Asish
Will post my detailed views to-morrow evening,time to post an earlier Link once again.
http://www.4shared.com/file/11931269/cf360e6e/Nifty_Fut.html
I can only share now that i was a dumb fool ,the Rise of Nifty on friday was exactly on the 45 days on time count if counted from 3rd Top.Lost a big opprtunity.Was too much defensively bias.Rest on Sunday Eve.
Asish
Hi Uasish,
Great to read about the Nifty 5000.
As much as I have been charting Nifty Movements (technically), It has helped to keep a tab on the fundamental performance of the stock market.
And surely you are quite near the bulls eye.
For Nifty to be 5000, it requires an EPI of 250 (with PE of 20) (or EPI of 238 with PE of 21) and with current EPI of 205/208 (Dec 06 Q) we are about 2 quarters (1 more Q if the growth is stunted due to Interest rates, dollar parity, negative sentiment).
I have mapped the EPI Q wise for the last 8 years [Attachment 1], and the market has never crossed Forward EPI of 21 [Attachment 2]
But IMHO we will not see Nifty reach 5000 levels before Sep 07.
Loved the irony of the fact that you and I are talking of levels 1750 apart (yours 5000, mine 3250 before 5000 :O)....
Thanks for your comments, will continue discussions....
Great to read about the Nifty 5000.
As much as I have been charting Nifty Movements (technically), It has helped to keep a tab on the fundamental performance of the stock market.
And surely you are quite near the bulls eye.
For Nifty to be 5000, it requires an EPI of 250 (with PE of 20) (or EPI of 238 with PE of 21) and with current EPI of 205/208 (Dec 06 Q) we are about 2 quarters (1 more Q if the growth is stunted due to Interest rates, dollar parity, negative sentiment).
I have mapped the EPI Q wise for the last 8 years [Attachment 1], and the market has never crossed Forward EPI of 21 [Attachment 2]
But IMHO we will not see Nifty reach 5000 levels before Sep 07.
Loved the irony of the fact that you and I are talking of levels 1750 apart (yours 5000, mine 3250 before 5000 :O)....
Thanks for your comments, will continue discussions....
Attachments
U
Hi,
xbharat , thks for keeping my request to join this thread with your views.If possible continue regularly in this thread."5000" was just a FIGURATIVE thing to instill confidence,on those days when it was all "Neysayers Everywhere"
Today in this post you will find my probable Tgt,i repeat here once again
Mkt Humbels us every day.
1st of all in a recent post i have mentioned 13th to be the 45th day,it was a typo mistake,the significance of 13th April is clarified below.
Friday's Rise ::::
On Wkly chart: White Candle of 9th March completely Retraced by 16th March Black Candle again 23rd March White Candle completely retaraced by Black Candle of 30th March & 4th April,on this back drop.
a)The long legged doji of 4th April's Black denoted reversal & a White Candle would rise upto 23rd March's White's body was signalled .
b)Moreover the Fib time when calculated from Pivot of 8th Feb Top & 5th March Bottom (to be .382),gives 13th April to be an eventful day.
My mind was clouded with Infy & the Evening star of 11th April in Daily chart set a sudden emergency brake hence could not take advantage of Friday's rise.
Now :::
a)Moday is the 45th Day (a Fib Trading Day )from 8th Feb Top.
b)Both High of 23rd March & 13th April are at same (1 point Diff) so this is Res. now .
c)Weekly analogy of Candle retracements;after the 13th April's White Candle last week so now we have to see what happens ,at least even if here i may be trying a "Curve Fitting" or trying to "CREATING a Pattern",the fact is the previous week's White candle BODY (open , close) has guided us in Supp / Res zone.
c)As per Gann calculations 3915.90 is to be achieved.If crosses convincingly then 4029.35 is the Max projection presently, & if slides downward then 3792.80 immediate Tgt.
d)Wave count wise 4th Ended on 3rd March & 5th Up unfolded , so an uptrend.(Link for Chart in an immediate past post)
e)I think a contracting triangle has developed where each leg retraces atleast 50 % of earlier legs.
Where "A" at 9/3 "B" at 16/3 "C" at 23/3 "D" IF ENDED on 13/4 ,then plz view attached chart to get minimum downTgt.
After that the "E" should explode out UP to validate my Contracting Triangle analogy.Tgt then would be 4282 So BEFORE 5000 "4282 " After that again we will calculate.
Levels:
Res: 3908.55 / 3931.65 / 3976 max upside of this leg STRONG Res @ 4058.70
Supp: 3872 / 3864.95 / 3852 / 3843.09 .
Intraday Weakness will develop if trades below 3849.18
Stop :For Longs = 3830.52
Closing : c > 3942.51 good & c > 3893.45 will keep bull spirits.
To-morrow if Black candle ,then weakness will last for 3 Days.
Strategy: Will SHORT only at 3968 with 3976 SL.No shorting below that if opening is Strong & Closing favourable.
Intraday :Surpassing 3908.55 will Long in RETRACEMENTS only ,with appropiate SL (will decide in Intraday)
Weakness in Opening may Short depending on 1st Hr Intraday movement with
SL deciding in Intraday.
Asish
http://www.4shared.com/file/14137677/ad9c48e2/Nifty_FutContracting_Triangle.html
xbharat , thks for keeping my request to join this thread with your views.If possible continue regularly in this thread."5000" was just a FIGURATIVE thing to instill confidence,on those days when it was all "Neysayers Everywhere"
Today in this post you will find my probable Tgt,i repeat here once again
Mkt Humbels us every day.
1st of all in a recent post i have mentioned 13th to be the 45th day,it was a typo mistake,the significance of 13th April is clarified below.
Friday's Rise ::::
On Wkly chart: White Candle of 9th March completely Retraced by 16th March Black Candle again 23rd March White Candle completely retaraced by Black Candle of 30th March & 4th April,on this back drop.
a)The long legged doji of 4th April's Black denoted reversal & a White Candle would rise upto 23rd March's White's body was signalled .
b)Moreover the Fib time when calculated from Pivot of 8th Feb Top & 5th March Bottom (to be .382),gives 13th April to be an eventful day.
My mind was clouded with Infy & the Evening star of 11th April in Daily chart set a sudden emergency brake hence could not take advantage of Friday's rise.
Now :::
a)Moday is the 45th Day (a Fib Trading Day )from 8th Feb Top.
b)Both High of 23rd March & 13th April are at same (1 point Diff) so this is Res. now .
c)Weekly analogy of Candle retracements;after the 13th April's White Candle last week so now we have to see what happens ,at least even if here i may be trying a "Curve Fitting" or trying to "CREATING a Pattern",the fact is the previous week's White candle BODY (open , close) has guided us in Supp / Res zone.
c)As per Gann calculations 3915.90 is to be achieved.If crosses convincingly then 4029.35 is the Max projection presently, & if slides downward then 3792.80 immediate Tgt.
d)Wave count wise 4th Ended on 3rd March & 5th Up unfolded , so an uptrend.(Link for Chart in an immediate past post)
e)I think a contracting triangle has developed where each leg retraces atleast 50 % of earlier legs.
Where "A" at 9/3 "B" at 16/3 "C" at 23/3 "D" IF ENDED on 13/4 ,then plz view attached chart to get minimum downTgt.
After that the "E" should explode out UP to validate my Contracting Triangle analogy.Tgt then would be 4282 So BEFORE 5000 "4282 " After that again we will calculate.
Levels:
Res: 3908.55 / 3931.65 / 3976 max upside of this leg STRONG Res @ 4058.70
Supp: 3872 / 3864.95 / 3852 / 3843.09 .
Intraday Weakness will develop if trades below 3849.18
Stop :For Longs = 3830.52
Closing : c > 3942.51 good & c > 3893.45 will keep bull spirits.
To-morrow if Black candle ,then weakness will last for 3 Days.
Strategy: Will SHORT only at 3968 with 3976 SL.No shorting below that if opening is Strong & Closing favourable.
Intraday :Surpassing 3908.55 will Long in RETRACEMENTS only ,with appropiate SL (will decide in Intraday)
Weakness in Opening may Short depending on 1st Hr Intraday movement with
SL deciding in Intraday.
Asish
http://www.4shared.com/file/14137677/ad9c48e2/Nifty_FutContracting_Triangle.html
Last edited by a moderator:
U
Hi,
Plz also go thru these
Analysis made by xbharat:
http://www.traderji.com/newreply.php?do=newreply&p=86069
Analysis of Loknathpai "Wolfe Wave"
http://www.traderji.com/newreply.php?do=newreply&p=86075
Analysis of Jaykiru :"Gartley"
http://www.traderji.com/newreply.php?do=newreply&p=86118
Asish
Plz also go thru these
Analysis made by xbharat:
http://www.traderji.com/newreply.php?do=newreply&p=86069
Analysis of Loknathpai "Wolfe Wave"
http://www.traderji.com/newreply.php?do=newreply&p=86075
Analysis of Jaykiru :"Gartley"
http://www.traderji.com/newreply.php?do=newreply&p=86118
Asish
Last edited by a moderator:
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