Today the market was down with record volumes. This made me dig deeper in to niftys historical data and charts .Some excerpts :-
1. Todays fall was the 10th fall in the last 19 trading days . Whenever nifty has fallen , it has done so with high volumes . In a raising market usually the volumes will have to be higher on up days rather than down ( unlike what the nifty is doing right now ) .
2. Since mid-sep Niftys trendline has moved out of primary channel and is moving in a zone last seen during the 2000 tech burst . The long-term supports for nifty is at 4000 and short-intermediate support is at 5600,5230 and 4850.
3.Nifty ADX is moving down since oct 16 , 2007 and this bothers me .
4.Fundamentally speaking ( asish ignore this point .. i know you hate fundamentals) .... Nifty P/E crossed a six year resistance P/E of 22.01 on 24th september 2007 and has since moved to 26.01 ( as on yesterday ).If the six-year resistance becomes support then nifty should find support around 4960-4970 .Noted that the peak P/E for nifty ever was 28.47 ( 11th feb 2000). If that peak were to be the resistance then nifty will find resistance at 6422 .Also noted that it fell from the peak to reach a P/E of 12.30 on 21-sep-2001 ( present nifty equivalent of 2774 ).
