It use to be easy back in 2009. But the volatility became more and more complicated as everyone started doing it. I know people without any market knowledge making money just to bust their account in few months. I also lost my previous 4 month earnings in Aug'15 crash.
I have tried every kind of strategy in these past years (credit spreads, ratios, butterfly, calendar spreads,iron condor etc). I soon realized that there is no magic strategy that can give consistent results but the knowledge of the market volatility itself. If there is volatility bound to come no strategy where you receive credit can save you (except for if your playing direction and you get it right).
Now how to read volatility? I will give you a classical example of Sep'16 (surgical strike). The whole month the delta neutral strangle wasn't giving any profits. With every adjustment i was losing my credit as well as gains. Mind you this is not reflected in VIX. But there was clearly something fishy. I didn't make money that month but didn't gave any as well which is very important to survive because majority of months will give good returns. So we need to understand how volatility rises and is eventually sold off.
Since last one year i have shifted to BNF which has suited my style of shorting strangle very well. The principles remain the same. I increase my position in profits while shifting and cut the loss as it happens. Over past year i have started converting my strangle into condor (where my OTM remains short but i buy ATM against it) which gives decent profit in weeks like these.
I have tried every kind of strategy in these past years (credit spreads, ratios, butterfly, calendar spreads,iron condor etc). I soon realized that there is no magic strategy that can give consistent results but the knowledge of the market volatility itself. If there is volatility bound to come no strategy where you receive credit can save you (except for if your playing direction and you get it right).
Now how to read volatility? I will give you a classical example of Sep'16 (surgical strike). The whole month the delta neutral strangle wasn't giving any profits. With every adjustment i was losing my credit as well as gains. Mind you this is not reflected in VIX. But there was clearly something fishy. I didn't make money that month but didn't gave any as well which is very important to survive because majority of months will give good returns. So we need to understand how volatility rises and is eventually sold off.
Since last one year i have shifted to BNF which has suited my style of shorting strangle very well. The principles remain the same. I increase my position in profits while shifting and cut the loss as it happens. Over past year i have started converting my strangle into condor (where my OTM remains short but i buy ATM against it) which gives decent profit in weeks like these.
Can you please explain a bit more about the bold part....it means you shift profit making side to new strike ?what about loss making side?