Udayan Mukherjee says " January traditionally has been a big swing month for the markets, sometimes its gone down 8-10%, sometimes its gone up 5-6%.
It is erratic but very rarely range-bound. Its never been a 1% kind of a month up or down, it very rarely has been. One should expect a meaningful move in January because its news heavy month both globally and locally there is earnings, monetary policy, some bit of rumbling about the Union Budget etc will start by the end of the month. So on all accounts it looks like there will be some kind of a move in the market and in the absence of negative news you would at least for starters bet on the Nifty trying to head up to 5,400-5,500 kind of levels."
He is a very level headed guy and i trust his views. If he feels that in the absense of negative news, we can head upto 5400-5500 levels, then first we need to leg down to trap some shorts and then use that to go past 5300 plus tgt. First day of the series and we see no conviction on either sides.
June 5th Outlook :
1. We have a situation where every TA guy is bullish and is looking forward to 5290-5400. Almost all of them have their SL at 5190-5200. It would be ironical if we have all that SL hit tomorrow and history proves consensus wrong always, so we will look forward to that.
2. We had the lowest turnover in nifty in the last 50 trading days. Now thats a upmove on the thinnest volume ever.
3. Range (37 points) is the same as the last trading day. Its the narrowest in the last 6 days. so H4 and L4 will be the only levels to watch. Pure cam followers made some decent money today. H3 and L3 will be for pure SL purpose only
4. Last 6-7 trading days, we have been making higher highs and higher lows, so that a uptrend will come to a end only if we make a close below the the low of the day (5210).
5. we never tested the LOD today and broke the HOD 3 times and closed nearly at the top. Normally that accompanies with a minor gap up opening the next day. BUT the volume traded was the thinnest ever. And any upmove with very thin volume, is a sign of trend reversal.
6. Stochastics is overbought in daily TF and Weekly TF. But we all know that it can stay like that for few more days.
7. CCI-14 is showing a cute little divergence in 15 min TF. Thanks to the very narrow range, it can be ignored or can it...?
8. Hourly Tf regression channel points to 5225 as the breakdown and 5254 as the break out level. Trend still remains up. But the angle is not very encouraging.
9. cam levels for tomorrow are :
H4 : 5,260.15
H3 : 5,249.98
L3 : 5,229.63
L4 : 5,219.45
High made on Monday's trading session is 5247. and low made is 5210. day before's low was 5191 and high was 5229. 50% of today's range gives us 5232 as a important level. The floor pivot (high + low + close / 3) is also 5232. The average trading price for monday was 5231.
We got 5250 at H3, 5247 was the high of monday and 5254 as the breakout level by regression channel.
On the down side we have 5229 at L3, 5232 as 50% of the trading range, plus the floor pivot and 5231 as the av trading price.
we got our zone to watch for tomorrow. personally, i would wait for the second wave to go long and wouldnt mind going short the first instance 5229 breaks.
HAPPY TRADING TO ALL...