Today NR7 break out in TCS is faild and both the stoploss hit .Sir can you tell the reason about this false break out.Also explain how to identify this is false breakout
High Low h-l
15.03.10 820 791.15 28.850
16.03.10 831.95 815.8 16.150
17.03.10 845.900 830.000 15.900
18.03.10 845.000 820.500 24.500
19.03.10 834.450 805.250 29.200
22.03.10 833.800 806.150 27.650
23.03.10 833.000 822.100 10.900 Yes
25.03.10 836.800 818.000 18.800
We will never know why TCS has behaved in this way. And answer of WHY is not important, in my view. Rather we should fine-tune our approach to trade the breakout.
And if stop is hit, then let it be. You can never have 100% successful trades in any system. So stopping out is part of this business.
Look at the bigger picture (last 5 days move) of TCS. The upbreak was not really a break. Mkt opened there and that level was immediately rejected. Down break also could not hold and market reversed to yesterday's range, i.e. there is no clear breakout shown by TCS.
Better approach will be to let price break out from the range.. and see how it is behaving during the first retracement/reversal after the breakout. Wait for second entry
point to develop and enter there.
i.e. in case of tcs,
- if it has gone below 822 - no action but be on alert now.
- let price start coming back up again.. and see what is happening now.
- if it enters above 822.. then breakout has failed and you are still not in trade.
- But if price again starts falling (though it did not happen today), and goes below 822, or below the pivot low made during first breakout i.e. 818 level, then you take the entry.
Though there is no guarantee that it will be 100% success with this approach, but certainly this would keep you away from jumping too early in breakout and getting caught in trap created by smart money.
- lets look at this chart of nifty and see the action on 22-Mar.
Here nifty brokeout below 19-Mar low, it came back up to test the range of 19-Mar.. and failed there. And you can see how clean that entry would have been.
Use the set of rules given in this post to understand if breakout is turning out to be a successful or not.
http://www.traderji.com/advanced-trading-strategies/29825-trading-nr7-setup-45.html#post384035
Rajkumar - trading test our patience to the extreme. And it is not easy to hold us back..but if learn to demonstrate the patience then it shows on our P&L.
Hope this helps.
Happy Trading