I am also expecting Diwali kind of selling, I would love to be wrong and either direction does not harm me.. but I have little contradictory view from majority at this crucial juncture and we MUST cross 5195 in coming days (max by Tuesday) to complete an inverse H&S which can take us well above 5400.. may be 5425-5430
.. but before that all happens it will face strong resistance at 5168 above that it will take rest at 5290 and then finally 5500
16 May 2008 - 5168
02 May 2008 - 5290
05 Feb 2008 - 5500
See this chart.. (last 2 bars are imaginary and if market goes in favor of bulls then it might look like this)
Although, FII & DII have withdrawn most of their money in past couple of days and today both were net sellers in F&O while DII stayed net seller even in cash. Not necessarily that means negative.. that could be a positive with a small positive trigger from outside. As all this cash pulled outside is sitting idle and due to the nature of cash it cannot sit idle for longer period.. they might take market for a dip on Monday without volume as its below 5115 level.. and then accumulate till 5090.. which they did today as well and then push it above 5168 with great volume to break all resistance where I will buy 5300CE
Edit:
Another few bearish signs from global markets.
The candles show reversal patterns – evening stars (Dow and SPX) and bearish engulfing patterns (NDX, COMPX, RUT). Bearishness in all major US indices.
If that's not all USD formed a bullish hammer pattern. OBV is neutral to slightly bullish short term for the S&P (which is probably due to the index being containing a significant number of oil stocks), but it is neutral to bearish for all other major indices. It is especially bearish for the Russell 2000 for which it shows clear distribution since late September. I would not be surprised to see the Russell 2000 drop to the low 500s in the next few weeks…
Disclaimer: I am not bear nor bull... I am spectator and will act as lion when required