Trading with PT style

[praveen taneja]

After showing good strength previous week, Nifty made spinning Top weekly candlestick pattern, which shows indecision at higher levels. However, on daily chart, Nifty is trading above its important support at 5150 levels. As long as Nifty trades above 5150 levels, short term trend may remain up and intermediate term trend may get momentum on upside. On maintaining below 5150 levels on Daily basis, profit booking may be seen and range bound scenario may resume.For trading during the coming trading sessions, trend deciding level is 5150. If Nifty shows strength above 5150 levels then we may see rally to 5235/5270-5295/5350. If Nifty doesn’t sustain above 5150 then decline to 5090/5050/4990/4940 may be seen.

 

[praveen taneja]

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News Roundup
• India’s stocks posted their biggest annual gain in
18 years. India’s benchmark index Nifty gave a
return of nearly 71% in CY 2009.Nifty closed at the
highest level for the year.
• India’s benchmark index, Nifty closed flat with a
minor gain of 0.44% for the week ended 1st Jan
10. The NIFTY closed at 5201. However, Global
markets were flat for the week.
• The government may relax a rule to allow select
public power producers to sell at market prices on
merchant basis. Companies such as NTPC would
gain from the proposed move.
• Government in not in any hurry to withdraw the
stimulus. In his statement deputy central bank
governor said on Thursday that India’s central
bank will review interest rates at its next policy
review scheduled for 29 January and not before.
• India’s exports rose for the first time in 14 months
as recovery in the global economy boosted yearend
holiday demand for the South Asian nation’s
products. Overseas shipments increased 18.2
percent to $13.2 billion in November from a year
earlier after sliding an average 21 percent per
month since October 2008, according to data
provided by the trade ministry. Imports fell 2.6
percent to $22.8 billion.
• With production of 46.77 million tonnes of crude
steel during the period January-October, 2009,
India has emerged as the fourth largest steel
producer in the world.
• Foreign fund flows into India’s stock market rose
to $17.5 billion in 2009, close to a record set two
years ago when FII’s invested USD 17.7Bn.
• Food inflation, as measured by the Wholesale
Price Index (WPI), rose to 19.83 per cent for the
week ended December 19 primarily due to rising
prices of potatoes, pulses and other vegetables.
Food inflation stood at 18.65 per cent for the
previous week ended December 12 and at 9.38

 

[praveen taneja]

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• Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee said the
nation’s budget deficit, forecast at 6.8 percent of
gross domestic product in the year to March 31,
can’t be sustained for a long time. However, the
minister hinted that a hasty exit from stimulus to
lower fiscal deficit might not be the right approach.
• Delay in Mobile number portability has given some
respite to incumbent telecom operators. The
government has postponed the implementation of
mobile number portability to the 31 March 20101
from 31 December 2009.
• Auto makers such as Maruti Suzuki, Hyundai,
Mahindra & Mahindra, General Motors and Hero
Honda today reported high double-digit sales
growth in December.
• Crude oil rose for a sixth day before a U.S.
government report that is forecast to show a
decline in stockpiles of the fuel in the largest
energy- consuming nation. The crude closed at
USD 79.62 per barrel.
• The dollar posted its first monthly gain since June
versus the currencies of major U.S. trading
partners; the greenback has fallen by 4.2% for the
year.
• U.S. stocks fell this week, limiting an advance that
sent the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index to its
biggest annual increase in six years. The 2009
rally failed to rescue investors from the worst
return for any decade
• Asian economies were reporting signs of
economic recovery and growth. China’s
manufacturing expanded at the fastest pace in 20
months in December, cementing the recovery in
the world’s third-biggest economy. South Korea’s
exports increased at the fastest pace in 17
months, adding to signs that Asia’s fourth-largest
economy is recovering from the global recession.
__________________

 

[praveen taneja]

During the month ended Dec’09, FIIs have been
net buyers of about Rs 10233.10 Cr in
comparison to net buyers of 5497 Cr in previous
month. Mutual Funds have been net sellers of Rs
1515.60 Cr in month ended Dec’09 i.e. FIIs has
been net buyers for consecutive 10 months and
Mutual funds remained negative for consecutive
four months.
As per the sector performance, buying interest
was seen in major sectors as both Nifty and
Sensex closed with 3.35% and 3.18% gains
respectively in month ended Dec’09.

 

[praveen taneja]

Nifty January futures saw long rollovers as they closed at a 14-point premium. The open interest build-up was mostly through buy-side trades. Derivatives contracts indicate that in the absence of any significant short rollovers, the Nifty can now consolidate above 5,200 before moving to much higher levels. Options traders expect the Nifty to move around 5,400 with support at 5,100. The journey between 5,200 and 5,400 is likely to be volatile as open interest build-up in these calls has been mostly through a mix of buy and sell trades. The resistance is expected to be at 5,400 levels with this strike call holding an open interest of 2.3 million shares, mostly through sell-side trades. The Nifty once again traded in a range of 20 points after opening above 5,200. The bulls are gaining strength to buy only after a confident move above 5,200. Most technical indicators remain positive and hence momentum should pick up in the next few trading sessions. The oscillators are slightly overbought but are not an immediate concern. The weekly resistance of Nifty found at 5228-5266-5310 levels and support found at 5166-5102-5060 levels.

 

[praveen taneja]

RBI Fortnightly Update
RBI has released fortnightly statistics on the banking sector for the fortnight ending 18th December 2009. Key highlights of the data are as under:
Aggregate credit by scheduled commercial banks registered a growth of 11.3% YoY,higher than the previous fortnight (10.5% YoY). This is the highest credit growth over the three fortnights. In absolute terms loans grew by INR 216 billion to INR 29.4 trillion. Loan growth over the 2-3 quarter has remained sluggish as the overall advances YTD have grown by ~5.5% only. However, credit growth is expected to pick up as the industrial activity increased (as indicated by IIP data) which will increase the demand for credit. In addition to that there has been strong pick up in the mortgage and auto loans which suggest improvement in retail demand. We continue to maintain credit growth estimate of 13-15% YoY for FY10 led by better loan growth in the remaining period.

 

[praveen taneja]

Deposits growth during the fortnight showed signs of weakness as it declined by INR 218.7 billion to
INR 41.8 trillion. On a year-on-year basis, the deposits increased by 17.8% compared to 18.3% in
the previous fortnight. Deposit rates have declined significantly over the last 3-4 months leading to
lower deposit mobilization. Further, outflow by way of advance tax payments also impacted the
deposit growth. The demand deposits registered a strong growth of 19.8% YoY (INR 45 billion decline
over previous fortnight). Term deposits growth moderation showing a growth of 17.6% YoY. Credit
to deposit ratio improved by 87 bps to 70.3% compared to 69.4% in preceding fortnight.

 

[aditya14]

Nifty January futures saw long rollovers as they closed at a 14-point premium. The open interest build-up was mostly through buy-side trades. Derivatives contracts indicate that in the absence of any significant short rollovers, the Nifty can now consolidate above 5,200 before moving to much higher levels. Options traders expect the Nifty to move around 5,400 with support at 5,100. The journey between 5,200 and 5,400 is likely to be volatile as open interest build-up in these calls has been mostly through a mix of buy and sell trades. The resistance is expected to be at 5,400 levels with this strike call holding an open interest of 2.3 million shares, mostly through sell-side trades. The Nifty once again traded in a range of 20 points after opening above 5,200. The bulls are gaining strength to buy only after a confident move above 5,200. Most technical indicators remain positive and hence momentum should pick up in the next few trading sessions. The oscillators are slightly overbought but are not an immediate concern. The weekly resistance of Nifty found at 5228-5266-5310 levels and support found at 5166-5102-5060 levels.

How do you find out the orders are Buy or Sell side.That will be very useful please tell.

 

[praveen taneja]

How do you find out the orders are Buy or Sell side.That will be very useful please tell.

Keep an eye on open interest if mkt rising with open interest and in premium means rollover buy side and if in discount and still rising I assume that shorts are rolling for big trend:thumb:
But i know TA very less or u can say below nil trade only what my eyes watching and sixth sense or tukka watever u say
Its only Gods wish that I am still in this mkt or I saw even Ashwini Gujral says on TV in cartoon network I hold no position even in nifty:rofl:

 

[praveen taneja]

taken 5200 put at 106.50 lets see