Our Markets closed higher for 9th successive week, although the 'pace' is now slowing.NIFTY now has closed a little below crucial 5400 mark.
On week on week basis, advancement was very minor just about 1.4%.
Coming week will be a a crucial week for markets, as IIP-data for Feb.2010 will be announced on Monday 12th Apr, consensus estimate is 15.75% as compared to 16.7% previously. Lower IIP for feburary could prove to be a dampner. Following day on Tuesday 13th Apr, IT major INFOSYS will kick-start earning season for Indaian corporates. Although we believe most of the 'Positives' on earning estimates are already 'discounted' in the current prices, 'earning-guidance' from corporates could act as a 'driver' in the near Term. On 14th Apr markets have holiday and this will be followed by Monthly Inflation data for March to be announced on 15th. And this is expected to remain very high on account of manufacturing and fuel Inflation and could cross 10% mark (Feb inflation was 9.89%).These higher nos. are much out of RBI's 'comfort zone' and may call for stricter policy action in it's monetary policy review meet slated on 20th Apr.
Althogh FII-inflow continues, Markets are already in the 'strong Resistance block' in the range 5350~5400 of NIFTY. Market conditions are already 'over-bought', HIGH CAUTION is therefore warrented around 5400 levels of NIFTY. Stock-specific actions likely. 'Profit-booking' at higher levels could push the market in 'consolidation' mode in the coming week.