Markets are crucially poised after closing mildly positive on weekly basis post range bound trading ruled by high volatility in a 3-day truncated trading week.
Key indices advanced a meagre 0.5% amid low trading volumes. Mid-Cap & Small-Cap Stocks remained the flavours of the market with both outperforming the benchmark indices by registering gains of 3.25% & 2% respectively. Amongst the large-cap, key gainers were ONGC, NTPC & Bhel while those dragging the markets were JSPL, Bharti Airtel & Hindustan Unilever.
Global Markets traded range bound with a negative bias following release of minutes of the US FED's latest monetary policy meeting which seemed to indicate that majority of FED's members were not keep to initiate another round of quantitative easing amid signs of improvement & recovery in the US economy.
Commencement of Q4FY12 corporate results would be a key trigger going forward & focus would be on guidance provided by management for FY13 to gauge the earnings outlook. IT bellwether Infosys would flag-off the result season on Friday, 13 April 2012.
On the macro front, IIP data would be announced on Thursday for the month of February 2012.
For the month of January 2012, IIP grew by 6.8%.
Also on Friday WPI Inflation data for the month of March 2012 would be unveiled.
Data on Industrial Production for Feb 2012 as well as Inflation for March 2012 would provide cues on RBI's likely policy stance at monetary policy review for 2012-2013 scheduled on 17th April 2012.
Nifty OI PCR has risen to 1.21 from 1.1 levels week earlier while Nifty Futures premium has shrinked to 22 points against 38 points points vs Spot compared to week earlier.
Currently, Markets are in an consolidating phase & every attempt of pullback above 5400 levels are being embraced with bouts of selling pressure on rises.
As the upmove from 5200 levels to 5400 levels post F&O expiry on 29th March is on the back of tepid volumes & unless Nifty Futures manages to cross & sustain above 5425, Nifty Futures could retest the support zone of 5184-5192.
Only if 5425 is crossed & sustained with huge volumes, further pullback upto 5540/5635 would be witnessed.
5184-5192 would act as a strong support zone. Any decisive breach of 5184 with volumes would result in capitulation upto 5056/4937 levels.