Trading with Volume Spread Analysis (VSA)

[niludeepak]

pl. have a detatched view of daily bars on the budget day, i ll post the rest of nifty stocks later

yesterday's upmove in nifty was a clear up thurst, and not a simple profit booking in last 2 hrs

hero honda- huge spread low vol- raises eyebrows
siemens- spread more, up close, close near high, more volume- good sign
icici- spread more, up close,close below high by~30% of range, vol up -strength +-
axis bank- spread more, up close, close near high, vol only slightly better as compared to spread - weakness
hindalco- spread more, up close, close near high, more volume- good sign
lt- spread more, up close,close below high by~30% of range,vol less- weakness
idfc-spread much more, up close,close below high by~40% of range,vol very high- weakness
hdfc bank-spread much more, up close,close below high by~50% of range,vol more- weakness
hdfc- range slightly more, up close, close below high by~35% of range,vol slightly high, high same,lowerlow- weakness
sun pharma- spread much more, up close,close below high by~55% of range,vol slightly less- weakness
acc -range low, up close, close near high, vol less than y'day- doji- hammer- no demand up bar-weakness
maruti- spread much higher, up close, close below high by 20% of range, vol very high- pros may be selling, will be clear only on the next day bar
hcl tech- average spread, low close, high same , lower low, more vol- weakness
ranbaxy- very wide spread, up close, close near high, ultra high vol, testing -wait for strength in next or following bars
infosys- below average spread, low close, close near lows, more vol- weakness
ambuja cement- spread wide,up close, close below high by 30% of range- low vol- weakness
grasim- narrow spread, upclose, close belw high by 30% , high vol- weakness
bpcl- wide spread, low close, close near low, high vol- weakness
tcs- wide spread, low close, mid bar close, testing new lower lows, -vol high than prev, about average vol- strength/ weakness will get clear in next bar

 

[niludeepak]

idea- wide spread, up close, close near high, vol up- strength, one weak sign is high same as prev
pnb- huge spread, open at testing sort of low, up close, close down 20% of range off high, much higher vol, str/weak will be clear next bar
ster- wide up bar, close near high, low vol- no demand
ongc- wide up bar ,close 40%of range off high- slightly high vol than av, better than prev day- no strength
abb- wide down bar, close near lows,quiet lower low, high vol- weakness
wipro- wide up bar,cl 40% below, low vol- weakness
gail- wide down bar, close near lows, high absorption sort of vol- slow building up of strength

 

[aditya14]

@Nilu,

i wouldn`t analyse too much for budget day, the price action is euphoric hence do not overanalyse this...

 

[niludeepak]

bhel- wide down bar,cl near lows, slightly more vol-weakness
tatamot- wide up bar, close near high, high vol, after 6 down days, cl at cl of 8th last highest bar, strength,wait for confirmation
rel capital- very very wide, >3 times, up bar, cl down >40% of range off highs, but cl pushed up at near about 20 days back ,from low open, vol about 7-8 times normal - strength, this fall from high cant be called upthurst trap, but can be taken as a real reversal
unitech- wide up bar, close in middle, high vol, can be taken as trap up
sbi- very wide >double up bar, 45%of range off high close,close pushed up at >16 days back close ,from near low open, vol about 4 times normal - strength, this fall from high cant be called upthurst trap, but can be taken as a real reversal

cairn- wide up bar, cl near high, vol more than av, after may be an absorption vol day , reversal may be confirmed later
jpassoc- wide spread up bar, mid close , high vol, having perhaps test down and upthurst in single bar, has quiet strength in back ground, wait and watch
tatasteel- wide upbar,cl60% below high, slightly higer vol, has bigger abs vol few days back yet perhaps not ready to go up
relinfra- very wide up bar double, close near the highs, cl pushed up back to 5 days back cl, signs of reversal

 

[niludeepak]

@Nilu,

i wouldn`t analyse too much for budget day, the price action is euphoric hence do not overanalyse this...

this i think is not overanalysis as i do it on a regular basis, but for budget day was a watershed day, analysis becomes all the more important, pl . if u find time go thru the daily graphs or atleast, the green ones, and comment, so that i can shed some of my biases

pl. have a detatched view
my view is only partial truth,
also they keep on rotating stocks and sectors, and
above than else our own bias distorts our understanding
these are not recommendations to buy the next day, but shows inherent strength/weakness unfolding bar by bar
pl bear if i m wrong m for i dont want to claim that i m perfect,
i m here for blessing(criticism) of seniors like u and others

 

[niludeepak]

suzlon- wide spread, double, up bar, close near high, close pushed up to cl 5 days back, high vol, double- can be taken as sign of reversal

jindal stel- wide spread up bar, close >50% off high, vol more than av, but less than prev day when it was narrow doji up bar mid close- both days signs of weakness

ntpc- narrow inside up bar, close off 20% high, vol4-5 times av,looks like absp vol , similar signs of strength in background,a test 2 days back with just more than av supply, 1 day back again huge supply wide down day cl near low, keep looking for reversal in coming days

hind uni lv- narrow inside up bar, close near lows, vol low- shows less of supply, wait and watch

reliance- slightly wide up bar, close below middle, vol just more than av, revarsal not yet confirmed

powergrid- wide up bar, close in mid, vol low, test with low vol prev day and also 8th-9th day back, looks like reversal, but have to wait for increase in demand

bharti- narrow doji up bar, mid cl, low vol- unable to inerpret any thing

tatacom- narrow inside up bar, cl below middle, less vol than prev,just above av vol- prev bar was like selling climax wth very high vol- keep watching for signs of reversal

itc- huge selling >23 million, av vol near 3 mil,if so many people have sold, who has bought all these stocks and why? they opened up took it up like sucker rally then throwed down hill and bought every thing below, intraday bars with vol is a real scenery for the delight with blood all around (koi mar raha tha koi maar raha tha, sorry bunny for hindi!!!)

rcom- wide up bar, close off high 30%, low vol, demand not yet emerged, at the same time less of supply, prev bar was a test on almost not very huge vol- can be regarded as reversal, but just wait and watch

dlf- huge double wide bar, close 60% off high, but close pushed up above prev 5 days close, budget day vol was >double av vol , although av vol during the last month of fall is higher suggestin secretive accumulation, this day can be taken as a reversal at least for short term, dont know if i m wrong

 

[tazzking]

Hey Nilu great job boss...could u please post your view on punj lloyed ,godawari power & ispat and brahmaputra infraprojects...(old name mewar industry)

Thanx in adv...

 

[niludeepak]

punj lloyd- wide up bar, close at middle,close pushed up above 3 days cl, vol high,has prev good absp vol in background, profit booking on budget day after 1.20,== signs of reversal, wait for confirmation
godavari- wide up bar, close near highs, vol better, prev bar is a successful test of supply because of low vol,no profit booking intraday== good signs, supposedly has reversed, ride on the up wave (caution because background has less of absp vol)

couldnt find nse code of brahmaputr i look icharts

i m only a novice, pl do not blame me for investment decisions if i m wrong

 

[tazzking]

punj lloyd- wide up bar, close at middle,close pushed up above 3 days cl, vol high,has prev good absp vol in background, profit booking on budget day after 1.20,== signs of reversal, wait for confirmation
godavari- wide up bar, close near highs, vol better, prev bar is a successful test of supply because of low vol,no profit booking intraday== good signs, supposedly has reversed, ride on the up wave (caution because background has less of absp vol)

couldnt find nse code of brahmaputr i look icharts

i m only a novice, pl do not blame me for investment decisions if i m wrong

Not at all nilu...bramaputra is in BSE...

 

[tazzking]