Trends are the most important Considerations in Trading & investing:
Market prices move in trends. Many variables influence trends. Market prices lead actual developments in underlying fundamental conditions. Therefore, why trends occur is not always evident in real time. Sometimes, the reason are not clear even well after the trend is over. Technical market indicators are designed simply to identify trends and trend changes without concern for underlying causes and effects.
Trends persist. We do not need to know how long a trend will last. We only need to know that trends continue until something changes in the supply and demand balance for the financial instrument in the market place. And we need to identify trend changes in a timely manner.
The market response to a significant new force unfolds over time as investors of different abilities and various constraints perceive and react to new developments at different rates. Market trends begin like rippling rings of water after a pebble has been tossed into the centre of the still pond. At the beginning, the most knowledgeable and best informed players transact their business based on the new reality, and their transactions create the first ripple in the market. Following closely, the second best informed react to create a second ring. Soon after, the third best informed investors make their trades to create a third ring. And so on, until finally the least sophisticated investors respond to the changed environment. By then the trend is over, and a trend reversal is at hand. This is the way directional-price trends unfold in waves of buying and selling.
Human beings buy and sell stocks, and people are moved by their emotions. The emotional state of the crowd, investor psychology, apart from all rational fundamental economic considerations, is the most important determinant of investors` decision making and therefore of actual market behaviour. Investors psychology is revealed in Tape Indicators and in specialized Sentiment Indicators in this book.
Trends are detectable in several different time frames, ranging from years to moments. There are three possible trend directions: up, down, or sideways. These trend directions differ in different time frames: major long-term trends that last for years; significant intermediate-term trends that last from a few weeks to a few months; minor short-term trends that last for days; and noisy momentary trends that concern only short-term traders. ----The Encyclopedia of Technical Market Indicators By Robert W. Colby
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